“Breaking Bad” Equilibrium John Willis Twitter: botchagalupe GitHub: botchagalupe

• One of the founding members of “Devopsdays” • Co-author of the “Devops Handbook”. • Author of the “Introduction to Devops” on Linux Foundation edX. • Podcaster at devopscafe.org • Devops Enterprise Summit - Cofounder • Nine person in at Chef (VP of Customer Enablement) • Formally Director of Devops at Dell • Found of Socketplane (Acquired by Docker) • 10 Startups over 25 years

About Mehttps://github.com/botchagalupe/my-presentations

• Economics• Wealth• Markets• Thermodynamics

Equilibrium

• Techical Debt• Cooperation• Risk • Work Life Balance• Burnout

Equilibrium

It’s a strategy that all the players in the game can adopt and converge on, but it won’t produce a desirable outcome

for anyone.

Bad Equilibrium

False Equilibrium

False Analytics

http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps

False Analytics

http://www.slideshare.net/swardley/an-introduction-to-wardley-maps

Movie Fun

More Fun - Game Theory

Is a state of allocation of resources in which it is impossible to make any one individual better off without making at

least one individual worse off.

Pareto Efficiency

A situation is inefficient if someone can be made better off even after

compensating those made worse off.

Pareto Inefficiency

A concept of game theory where the optimal outcome of a game is one

where no player has an incentive to deviate from his chosen strategy after

considering an opponent's choice.

Nash Equilibrium

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Nash Equilibrium

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Why Michael Lewis?

Forty years ago, Israeli psychologists Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky wrote a series of breathtakingly original studies undoing our assumptions about the decision-making process. Their papers showed the ways in which the human mind erred, systematically,

when forced to make judgments in uncertain situations. Their work created the field of behavioral economics, revolutionized Big Data studies, advanced evidence-

based medicine, led to a new approach to government regulation, and made much of Michael Lewis’s own

work possible. Kahneman and Tversky are more responsible than anybody for the powerful trend to mistrust human intuition and defer to algorithms.

• Human Irrationality • Heuristics • System 1 (fast) • System 2 (slow) • Availability Bias • Regression to the Mean • Overconfidence • Illusion of Validity

That’s how it’s always been done

around here!

• Undesirable Outcomes• Pareto Inefficient • Nash Equilibrium• False Analytics

• Human Irrationality• Cognitive Bias• Overconfidence

Devops Bad Equilibrium

Good Opportunities…- Discontinuity- Dislocation

Breaking Bad Equilibrium

• Make work visible • Manage WIP• Manage Flow• Create high trust• Embrace failure

Devops Advanced

Good Better

Really Hard Stuff

Better Excellent

• Psychological Safety• Blamelessness • Rethink SLA’s• Increase Headcount• Increase Buffers

You are either building a learning organization…

or you will be losing to someone who is…

Andrew Clay Shafer