Post on 06-Apr-2018
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ReseaRch BRief
Rsrn n Srn Plcs?DaviD a. BoSitiS, Ph.D.
NovemBeR 2011
CiviC eNgagemeNt aND goveRNaNCe iNStitute
Rsarch empowrmnt engagmnt
IntroductIon
Following the election o President Barack Obama, many
political observers especially conservative ones
suggested that the United States is now a post-racial
society. Three years later, in the region o the country where
most Arican Americans live, the South, there is strong
statistical evidence that politics is resegregating, with
Arican Americans once again excluded rom power and
representation. Black voters and elected ocials have less
infuence now than at any time since the civil rights era.
And since conservative whites control all the power in the
region, they are enacting legislation both neglectul o the
needs o Arican Americans and other communities o color
(in health care, in education, in criminal justice policy) as
well as outright hostile to them, as in the assault on voting
rights through photo identication laws and other means.
The racially polarized voting that denes much o southern
politics at this time, is in certain ways recreating the
segregated system o the Old South, albeit a de facto
system with minimal violence rather than the de jure system
o beore. I the political parties in the South are now asubstitute or racial labels, then black aspirations there will
continue to be limited. All this is reminiscent o the white
primaries and poll taxes o days gone by.
In most southern states, the 46 year transition rom a
multiracial Democratic political dominance to a white
conservative Republican political dominance is almost
complete. At the heart o this transition is racially polarized
voting. Black state legislators, generally elected in black
majority districts and long used to being in a majority
coalition, are now almost entirely isolated in the minority.
Republicans likewise dominate the statewide political
oces in these states. Virtually all black elected ocials in
the region are outsiders looking in.
This was not always the case. The period between 1976
and 1992 was characterized by both racially polarized
elections and those in which there was a air degree o
black-white agreement. In the 1976 election, Jimmy Carter
carried all the southern states save Virginia and the voting
pattern in the South did not show much racial polarization.
Bill Clinton was elected president in 1992 and carried our
southern states, including two in the Deep South. However
unlike Carter in 1976, Clintons victories in Georgia and
Louisiana were largely due to strong black support, but also
some meaningul white support. During this period there
were many U.S. Senators and Governors in the South who
were elected by genuinely multiracial coalitions o voters.
The current status quo in southern politics began to
take shape in the wave election o 1994, when at the
ederal level and in most statewide constitutional oce
elections white and black voters no longer voted alike
and a predominantly white and conservative Republican
party became ascendant in the South. However, despite
these changes, a multiracial coalition o white and black
Democratic state legislators managed to continue to work
together, and Arican Americans were able to maintain a
meaningul role in southern state politics.
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2 Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS?
Southern State LegISLatureS
It is important to remember that a majority o black state
representatives and senators in the U.S. are in the southern
state legislatures, and that this is a refection o the act the
majority o the Arican American population in the country
lives in the South. Also, o the 318 black state legislators
in the South, only three are Republicans, none o whom
represents a majority black constituency. The number and
status o black state senators and representatives or all 50
states can be ound in Appendices A and B.
From Post-Reconstruction to the 1990s, the Republicans
never controlled any southern state legislative body
except the Tennessee House, which they briefy controlled
ollowing the 1968 election. However, throughout
the 1980s the Republicans in several southern states
began narrowing that gap, and the 1992 elections were
important to achieving their goals, as they were the rst
ater the 1990 redistricting, when black majority districts
had to be created due to the 1982 revisions to the
Voting Rights Act and the U.S. Supreme Courts ruling in
Thornburg v. Gingles.
When southern Democrats in the Old South rst engaged
in diluting black votes (i.e. splitting them among multiple
districts), their aim was to diminish black infuence.
However, as southern whites began voting more
Republican, the Democrats ound themselves having to rely
on black votes to remain in oce, and growing numbers
o them accepted the goals o the civil rights movement
and became national Democrats. Accordingly, the
purpose o black vote dilution evolved rom thwarting black
political aspirations to protecting white Democrats and
Democratic majorities. On the other side, the Republicans
actually encouraged the creation o black districts because
they believed the bleaching process that occurred in
districts surrounding black majority districts would open up
opportunities or them. They supported black districts not
to increase black infuence but to win legislative majorities
or themselves.
The Republicans rst victories came with their landslide in
1994, when they gained majorities in Florida state senate
and the North and South Carolina lower houses [Table 1].
However, even ollowing those victories, most black state
legislators in the South continued to serve in the majority;
prior to the 1994 elections, 99.5 percent o black state
legislators there served in the majority and ater 1994, and
91.0 percent served in the majority.
While the Democrats eventually regained control in
North Carolina in 1996, the Republicans gained control
o the Florida house and or the rst time controlled a
southern state legislature. In 1999, the GOP won control
o the Virginia legislature, and between 2000 and 2002,
they gained controlled o the state legislatures in South
Carolina and Texas. The Republicans gained control o
the Georgia state senate in 2002 and the state house in
2004; Tennessees state senate went Republican or therst time in 2004.
While these changes were signicant, up until 2010 as
many as hal o all southern black state legislators still
served in majority coalitions. However, ollowing the 2010
elections and the 2011 elections in Mississippi and Virginia,
black state legislators now have minority legislative status
everywhere in the South save Arkansas. Prior to the 2010
elections, 50.5 percent o black state legislators in the
South served in the majority and 49.5 percent served in the
minority. Following the 2011 elections, only 4.8 percent oblack state legislators in the South serve in the majority, and
95.2 percent serve in the minority [Table 1].
This is a status unique to the South. A majority o black
state legislators serving in legislative bodies outside o the
South serve in the majority [Table 2]. In act, more than 10
times as many black legislators outside the South serve in
the majority compared to their southern counterparts, 162
versus 15, or 54.4 percent versus 4.8 percent.
State legislative parties are now increasingly dened by
racial composition. All Republican state legislative caucusesare predominantly white, while an increasing number
o southern Democratic state legislative caucuses are
majority black [Table 3]. This begs the question, what is
the purpose o having a legislative black caucus when the
majority o members in your legislative body are black?
A majority o Democrats in both chambers in Alabama,
Georgia and Mississippi are Arican Americans. Arican
Americans are also at least 50 percent o Democratic
members in the Florida senate and South Carolina house,
and more than 45 percent in the Florida house, and the
North and South Carolina senate. In hal o the southernstate legislative chambers, black members are a majority or
near majority o Democratic members. These proportions
are o course not commensurate with the black populations
o these states; Floridas population is only 16 percent
Arican American, but close to hal the Democratic
members o their legislature are black.
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Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS? 3
Some o the southern status quo may be transient
especially given the rapidly changing demographics o
many southern states. Looking at the 2010 U.S. Census
gures or a ew key states shows the signicance o the
changes taking place. Texas is now a majority-minority
state, and between 2000 and 2010, the Hispanic
population there increased by 42 percent and the Arican
American population by 24 percent. Floridas Hispanic
population increased by 57 percent, and its AricanAmerican population by 28 percent. Georgias small
Hispanic population almost doubled, but more important,
its large Arican American population increased by about 26
percent. Non-Hispanic whites are now a smaller proportion
o Georgias population than is the case in Florida. Some o
the present status may be due to transient political actors
such as the poor state o the economy in 2010 and 2011.
However, looking more closely at the root cause o these
changesracially polarized voting, and especially extreme
racially polarized voting suggest that in many southernstates this resegregation o politics is not transient [Table 3].
Looking at the 2008 Presidential election exit polls, it is
clear that the degree o racially polarized voting is much
less in the states won by President Obama; 42 percent o
whites voted or Obama in Florida, 39 percent in Virginia
and 35 percent in North Carolina. However, in Alabama
(10 percent), Mississippi (11 percent), and Louisiana (14
percent), the extent o racial polarization was extreme, and
suggests that no transient actors are at work.
coda
The data on the status o black state legislators
and by extension black citizensin the South is
disturbing. A resegregation in politics has taken
place. The achievement o complete power at the
state level by people who support policies and
actions that Arican Americans oppose means that
or the near uture that legislation and budgeting in
the South is unlikely to be aimed at helping Arican
Americans no matter how bad their unemployment
levels, how poor their schools and dropout rates,
and no matter how bad their health disparities.
Those with power have also sought to push urther
into the uture any relie or redress by making more
dicult or black voices to be heard at polls.
Demographic changes occurring daily are making
the South a dierent place. However, these changes
have not maniested themselves in politics yet, and
a whole lot o poor people, Arican Americans,
and Hispanics are going to have to wait to see an
improvement in their lives.
Pre-and-Post 1994 Midterm Elections Pre-and-Post 2010 Midterm Elections
Pre-1994 Midterms Post-1994 Midterms Pre-2010 Midterms Post-2010 Midterms
Status withinLegislature
StateHouse(N)(%)
StateSenate(N)(%)
Total(N)(%)
StateHouse(N)(%)
StateSenate(N)(%)
Total(N)(%)
StateHouse(N)(%)
StateSenate(N)(%)
Total(N)(%)
StateHouse(N)(%)
StateSenate(N)(%)
Total(N)(%)
Majority 15899.3
43100.0
20199.5
17481.7
6191.0
23483.9
11747.8
4758.8
16450.5
114.5
45.6
154.8
Minority 10.7
00.0
10.5
3918.3
69.0
4616.1
12852.2
3341.2
16149.5
23195.5
6794.4
29895.2
Total 159 43 202 213 67 280 245 80 325 242 71 313
taBle 1. StatuS of BlaCk State legiSlatorS, Southern StateSPre-and-PoSt 1994 and 2010 midterm eleCtionS1
Sources: The inormation and analysis rom 1994 is rom Redistricting and Representation: The Creation o Majority-Minority Districts and the Evolving PartySystem in the South (1995) by David A. Bositis. The inormation and analysis or 2010 is rom the NCLS and the Joint Center or Political and EconomicStudies. 1. Includes the Virginia and Mississippi elections o 2011. Note: the Virginia State Senate isd split.
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4 Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS?
Pre-2010 Elections Post-2010 Midterm Elections
Nonsouthern States Southern States Nonsouthern States Southern States
Status within
Legislature
State
House(N)(%)
State
Senate(N)(%)
Total
(N)(%)
State
House(N)(%)
State
Senate(N)(%)
Total
(N)(%)
State
House(N)(%)
State
Senate(N)(%)
Total
(N)(%)
State
House(N)(%)
State
Senate(N)(%)
Total
(N)(%)
Majority 19586.7
4864.0
24381.0
11747.8
4758.8
16450.5
13057.5
3244.4
16254.4
114.5
45.6
154.8
Minority 3013.3
2736.0
5719.0
12852.2
3341.2
16149.5
9642.5
4055.6
13645.6
23195.5
6794.4
26195.2
Total 225 75 300 245 80 325 226 72 298 242 76 318
taBle 2. StatuS of Southern and nonSouthern BlaCk State legiSlatorSPre-and-PoSt 2010 midterm eleCtionS1
Sources: The inormation and analysis rom 1994 is rom Redistricting and Representation: The Creation o Majority-Minority Districts and the Evolving Party
System in the South (1995) by David A. Bositis. The inormation and analysis or 2010 is rom the NCLS and the Joint Center or Political and EconomicStudies. 1. Includes the 2011 elections in Mississippi and Virginia. Note: The Virginia State Senate is split.
StateBlack
Population(%)
Democratic LegislatorsWho are Black
(%)
2008 DemocraticVote for President
(%)
2010 Democratic Vote
U.S. Senator(%)
Governor(%)
State Senate State House White Black White Black White Black
Alabama 26.2 58.3 65.0 10 98 - - - -
Arkansas 15.4 20 16.4 30 95 31 80 62 90
Florida 16.0 50 46.2 42 96 12 74 41 93
Georgia 30.9 65 66.7 23 98 - - - -
Louisiana 32.0 42.1 40.4 14 94 22 86 - -
Mississippi 37.0 54.5 63.8 11 98 - - - -
North Carolina 21.5 47.4 34.6 35 95 - - - -
South Carolina 27.9 47.4 58.3 26 96 9 80 29 94
Tennessee 16.7 23.1 44.1 34 94 - - - -
Texas 11.8 16.7 30.6 26 98 - - 29 88
Virginia 19.4 25 40.6 39 92 - - - -
taBle 3. raCial Polarization in Southern eleCtionS and legiSlatureS
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Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS? 5
2010 2011
Total Black Representatives Total Black Representatives
State Total Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
*AL 105 60 45 26 - 26 - 40 65 26 - - 26
AK 40 18 22 - - - - 16 24 - - - -
AZ 60 25 35 1 - - 1 20 40 - - - -AR 100 72 28 10 - 10 - 55 45 9 - 9 -
CA 80 49 29 6 - 6 - 52 28 6 - 6 -
*CO 65 37 27 1 - 1 1 32 33 2 - - 2
CT 151 114 36 11 - 11 1 100 51 9 - 9 -
DE 41 24 17 3 1 3 1 26 15 3 1 1 3
FL 120 43 76 18 1 1 18 39 81 18 - - 18
GA 180 74 105 40 2 2 40 63 115 42 1 1 42
HI 51 45 6 - - - - 43 8 - - - -
ID 70 18 52 - - - - 13 57 1 - - 1
IL 118 70 48 19 - 19 - 64 54 20 - 20 -
*IN 100 52 48 7 - 7 - 40 59 8 - - 8
*IA 100 56 44 6 - 6 - 40 60 5 - - 5
KS 125 49 76 5 - - 5 33 92 5 - - 5
KY 100 64 35 6 - 6 - 59 41 7 - 7 -
*LA 105 52 50 20 - 20 - 47 55 19 - - 19
*ME 151 95 55 - - - - 72 78 - - - -
MD 141 104 36 32 - 32 - 98 43 34 - 34 -
MA 160 144 16 6 - 6 - 128 32 6 - 6 -
*MI 110 66 43 14 2 14 2 47 63 15 1 1 15
*MN 134 87 47 2 - 2 - 62 72 2 - - 2
#MS 122 72 50 37 - 37 - 58 60 37 - - 37
MO 163 73 89 16 - - 16 54 105 14 - - 14
*MT 100 50 50 - - - - 32 68 - - - -
NE n/a
NV 42 28 14 4 - 4 - 26 16 5 - 5 -
*NH 400 222 176 4 - 4 - 104 293 2 - - 2
NJ 80 47 33 11 - 11 - 47 33 11 - 11 -
NM 70 45 25 1 1 1 1 36 33 1 1 1 1
NY 150 107 43 22 - 22 - 99 51 21 - 21 -
*NC 120 68 52 20 - 20 - 52 67 18 - - 18
ND 94 36 58 - - - - 25 69 - - - -
*OH 99 53 46 12 - 12 - 40 59 12 - - 12
OK 101 40 61 3 1 1 3 31 69 3 1 1 3
OR 60 36 24 - - - - 30 30 - - - -
*PA 203 103 97 16 - 16 - 91 112 16 - - 16
RI 75 69 6 3 - 3 - 65 10 2 - 2 -
SC 124 51 73 28 1 1 28 48 75 28 - - 28
SD 70 24 46 - - - - 19 50 - - - -
TN 99 48 50 15 - - 15 34 64 15 - - 15
Continued on page 6
aPPendix a. PartiSan StatuS of BlaCk State rePreSentativeS, 2010 and 2011
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6 Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS?
2010 2011
Total Black Representatives Total Black Representatives
State Total Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
TX 150 73 77 14 - - 14 49 101 15 2 2 15
UT 75 22 53 - - - - 17 58 - - - -
VT 150 95 48 - - - - 94 48 - - - -VA 100 39 59 13 - - 13 32 66 13 - - 13
WA 98 62 36 1 - 1 - 56 42 1 - 1 -
WV 100 71 29 2 - 2 - 65 35 3 - 3 -
*WI 99 52 46 6 - 6 - 39 59 6 - - 6
WY 60 19 41 - - - - 10 50 1 - - 1
(N) 5411 3023 2356 461 9 312 158 2442 2934 461 7 141 327
(%) 100 55.7 44.3 66.4 33.6 45.4 54.6 98.5 1.5 30.1 69.9
Sources: NCSL, Joint Center or Political and Economic Studies; = Indicates even split; * Indicates states where partisan control shited. # Mississippi Houseshited control in November 2011
2010 2011
Total Black Senators Total Black Senators
State Total Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
*AL 35 20 15 8 - 8 - 12 22 7 - - 7
AK 20 10 10 1 - = = 10 10 1 - = =
AZ 30 12 18 1 - - 1 9 21 1 - - 1
AR 35 27 8 4 - 4 - 20 15 4 - 4 -
CA 40 25 14 2 - 2 - 25 15 2 - 2 -
CO 35 21 14 1 - 1 - 20 15 - - - -
CT 36 24 12 3 - 3 - 22 14 3 - 3 -
DE 21 15 6 1 - 1 - 14 7 1 - 1 -
FL 40 14 26 7 - - 7 12 28 6 - - 6
GA 56 21 35 12 - - 12 20 36 13 - - 13
HI 25 23 2 - - - - 24 1 - - - -
ID 35 7 28 - - - - 7 28 - - - -
IL 59 37 22 9 - 9 - 35 24 10 - 10 -
IN 50 17 33 4 - - 4 13 37 4 - - 4
IA 50 32 18 - - - - 26 24 - - - -
KS 40 9 31 2 - - 2 8 32 2 - - 2KY 38 17 20 1 - - 1 15 22 1 - - 1
*LA 39 23 16 8 - 8 - 19 20 8 - - 8
*ME 35 20 15 - - - - 14 20 - - - -
MD 47 33 14 10 - 10 - 35 12 9 - 9 -
MA 40 34 6 - - - - 36 4 - - - -
MI 38 16 22 5 1 1 5 12 26 5 1 1 5
*MN 67 46 21 - - - - 30 37 - - - -
*MS 52 27 25 13 - 13 - 22 28 12 - - 12
MO 34 11 23 3 - - 3 8 26 3 - - 3
aPPendix B. PartiSan StatuS of BlaCk State SenatorS, 2010 and 2011
aPPendix a. PartiSan StatuS of BlaCk State rePreSentativeS, 2010 and 2011 (Continued)
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Joint Center for PolitiCal and eConomiC StudieS - reSearCh Brief: reSegregation in Southern PolitiCS? 7
2010 2011
Total Black Representatives Total Black Representatives
State Total Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
Dem Rep Dem Rep Serve inMajority
Serve inMinority
MT 50 23 27 - - - - 22 28 - - - -
NE 49 * * 2 2
NV 21 12 8 2 1 2 1 11 10 1 - 1 -*NH 24 14 10 - - - - 5 19 - - - -
NJ 40 23 17 4 - 4 - 24 16 4 - 4 -
NM 42 27 15 - - - - 27 15 - - - -
*NY 62 32 29 10 - 10 - 30 32 9 - - 9
*NC 50 30 20 9 - 9 - 19 31 7 - - 7
ND 47 21 26 - - - - 12 35 - - - -
OH 33 12 21 5 - - 5 10 23 5 - - 5
OK 48 22 26 2 - - 2 16 32 2 - - 2
OR 30 18 12 1 1 1 1 16 14 - 1 - 1
PA 50 20 30 2 - - 2 20 30 4 - - 4
RI 38 33 4 1 - 1 - 29 8 1 - 1 -
SC 46 19 27 9 - - 9 19 27 9 - - 9
SD 35 14 21 - - - - 5 30 - - - -
TN 33 14 19 3 - - 3 13 20 3 - - 3
TX 31 12 19 2 - - 2 12 19 2 - - 2
UT 29 8 21 - - - - 7 22 - - - -
VT 30 22 7 - - - - 22 8 - 1 - 1
#VA 40 22 18 5 - 5 - 20 20 5 - = =
WA 49 31 18 1 - 1 - 27 22 - - - -
WV 34 26 8 - - - - 28 6 - - - -
*WI 33 18 15 2 - 2 - 16 17 2 - - 2
WY 30 7 23 - - - - 4 26 - - - -
(N) 1971 1020 893 153 3 95 60 882 1034 146 3 36 102
(%) 100 51.8 48.2 61.3 38.7 46 54 98 2 25.2 74.8
Sources: NCSL, Joint Center or Political and Economic Studies; = Indicates even split; * Indicates states where partisan control shited. # Following the 2011elections, the Virginia State Senate is split.
aPPendix B. PartiSan StatuS of BlaCk State SenatorS, 2010 and 2011 (Continued)
Opinions expressed in Joint Center publications are those o the authors and do not necessarily refect the views o the ocers representing the Board oGovernors o the Joint Center or the organizations supporting the Joint Center and its research and policy analysis.
2011 by the Joint Center or Political and Economic Studies
All rights reserved.Printed in the United States
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Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies
1090 Vermont Avenue, NW, Suite 1100 | Washington, DC 20005 | www.jointcenter.org
aboutthe author
Dr. David A. Bositis (BA, Northwestern, MA, PhD, Southern
Illinois University), who has been at the Joint Center since
1990, is the author, co-author or editor o six books,
includingVoting Rights and Minority Representation;
in addition, he has authored eleven monographs, and
numerous scholarly articles, analyses, and reports, mostrecently, Opinion o Arican Americans on Climate
Change and the 2010 Midterm Elections: The View rom
Arkansas, Indiana, Missouri, and South Carolina; Blacks
and the 2008 Elections: A Preliminary Analysis; National
Survey o Arican Americans on Climate Change and
Conservation; 2008 National Survey o Arican American
Families Views on Education,; the 2008 National Opinion
Poll: Politics; Black Political Power in the New Century;
in The Black Metropolis in the Twenty-First Century: Race,
Power, and the Politics o Place, edited by Robert D.
Bullard; and The Impact o the Core Voting Rights Act onVoting and Oceholding in The Voting Rights Act (CQ
Press), edited by Richard Valelly. Dr. Bositis has written
many OP-Ed pieces or the New York Times, the Los
Angeles Times, and other leading newspapers. Dr. Bositis
has taught political science and sociology at the George
Washington University and SUNY-Potsdam. A voting rights
and redistricting expert, he has published widely in this
area, and has appeared as an expert witness in both state
and ederal court. Dr. Bositis worked with the late Judge
A. Leon Higgenbotham, Jr. in deending majority-minority
districts ollowing the U.S. Supreme Courts Shaw v. Renodecision. Dr. Bositis research was cited by Justice Stevens
in the Bush v. Vera case.
Dr. Bositis is also a scholar and theorist o political parties
and representation and has written extensively on those
topics, including the Congressional Black Caucus. Since
1992, he has written the popular monograph series, Blacks
and the Democratic and Republican National Conventions.
In 2000, the U.S. State Department sent Dr. Bositis to
Tanzania, Zanzibar, Zambia, and South Arica to speak
on issues o representation. Dr. Bositis traveled to Benin
several times in the mid-1990s to provide training and towork with NGOs that were conducting presidential election
studies. He is is also a scholar o black politics and voting,
and the Joint Center has published his election analyses
ollowing each national election since 1992. Since 1997,
Dr. Bositis has also been the author o the Joint Center
series on black elected ocials entitled Black Elected
Ocials: A Statistical Analysis.
aboutthe JoInt center
The Joint Center or Political and Economic Studies is
the nations leading public policy and research institution
ocusing on issues o concern to Arican Americans and
other communities o color. Founded in 1970 in wake o
the Voting Rights Acts passage, the Joint Center plays a
key role in encouraging civic and political participation
in the Arican American community and strengthening
the leadership skills o black elected ocials. Through
its scholarly research, distinctive analyses o issues and
convening o orums and networking opportunities, the
Joint Center helps guide the policy process toward practicasolutions on Americas most challenging issuesand
toward a better uture or all Americans.