Book Industry TRENDS 2007BookExpo America 2007

Working to create a more

informed, empowered, and efficient

book industry supply chain.

Agenda Introduction Methodology and Sources of Data Key Highlights and Findings Questions and Answers

Introduction

Introduction

Michael Healy, Executive Director

Book Industry Study Group, Inc.

About BISG Industry’s leading trade association for

policy, standards and research. Develops and maintains standards that

enable effective communication among all segments of the industry supply chain.

Conducts research and gathers data on issues affecting the book industry as a whole.

BISG Mission

Working to create a more

informed, empowered, and efficient

book industry supply chain.

How We Accomplish Our Mission

Provide a forum for the book industry Policy development Best working practices Consensus on industry issues

Develop standards for effective industry supply chain communications

Conduct research on issues affecting the book industry

Research & Publications

Book Industry TRENDS 2007

The only complete view of today’s book-publishing industry

More than 250 pages of tables, charts, and analysis

An up-to-date report that covers the growing segment of small to mid-size publishers

Methodology and Sources of Data

Methodology and Sources of Data

Jeff Hayes, Vice President & General Manager, InfoTrends

Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

Robert Wharton, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

Tracking Small Publishers Most book publishing revenue data is on

large publishers Significant publishing activity by smaller

entities Self-publishers Trade Associations Small businesses Corporations Specialty publishers Non-profit organizations

Need new primary research to quantify Concerns about generating reliable data

The Long Tail of Book Publishers

$0

$10,000,000

$20,000,000

$30,000,000

$40,000,000

$50,000,000

1 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100

Annual book publishing revenue

Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research

The Long Tail …

$0

$1,000,000

$2,000,000

$3,000,000

$4,000,000

$5,000,000

15 115 215 315 415 515 615 715 815 915 1015 1115

Annual book publishing revenue

Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research

The Long Tail …

$0

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

80 180 280 380 480 580 680 780 880 980 1080

Annual book publishing revenue

Rank OrderSource: BISG Under the Radar Research

Profile of Small Publishers (<$50M)

Self-publisher,

39.7%

Independent publisher,

48.4%

Type of Publisher

N = 1117

11.9%Educational institutionCorporationAssociationRetailerDistributorPrinterGovernment

0% 20% 40% 60% 80%

Elhi

College

Religious

Juvenile

Professionalor scholarly

Adult trade

Category of Books Published

Percentage of Publishers

Small Publisher Key Research Findings 53% earn revenue from non-book activities

(e.g. speaking, seminars, consulting, editing, distribution, education)

Nearly 90% use Internet for marketing and/or sales Growing portion of revenue from paperback

(73.7% vs. 71.6%)

Lower average selling prices in 2006 vs. 2005 ($11.21 vs. $13.46)

Getting retailers to carry books and production costs are top concerns

Used books, competition, and returns are not of high concern

Small Publisher Market Projections

193,802

records of US entities

with an ISBN

Not in business31.6%

In business68.4%132,52661,276

Not active33.2%

Active Publishers66.8%

88,52843,999

MedianRevenue ($K)

$3.6

$65

$177

$637

$2,000

NA

X

67,907

6,434

7,442

1,860

4,651

233

Under $50K 76.7%

$50K to $99K 7.3%

$100K to $499K 8.4%

$500K to $999K 2.1%

$1M to $49.9M 5.3%

$50M+ 0.3%

Annual Revenue

ProjectedRevenue ($M)

$418

$1,321

$1,186

$9,302

NA

=

$246

$12,474Total

2005 2006 Change % ChangeBowker DB publishers 182,566 193,802 11,236 6.2%

% in business 63.8% 68.4% 4.6%Publishers in business 116,477 132,526 16,049 13.8%

Generated revenue in last year 74.8% 66.8% -8.0%Active publishers 87,125 88,528 1,403 1.6%

Small publishers (<$50M) 86,759 88,295 1,536 1.8%Revenue from small publishers ($M) $11,008 $12,474 $1,466 13.3%

Year Over Year Comparisons

Statistical variance is an issue Most increase from $1M to $49M publishers

Analyzed survey data by key segments Format Category Channel Foreign vs. domestic

Additional analysis to incorporate into TRENDS 2007 Eliminate double counting Apportion to TRENDS segments

Integrating Small Publisher Projections

Additional Data Sources U.S. Department of Commerce

Census Bureau

International Trade Administration

Monthly Retail and Book Store Data

The Statistical Abstract of the U.S.

U.S. Department of Education

Additional Data Sources Congressional Budget Office

Annual Reports & 10-Ks

Wall Street Reports

Industry Reporting Services

Major Publications

Trade Associations

R.R. Bowker

Additional Data Sources Financial Reporting Services

Data from NBER, Federal Reserve, etc.

Discussions with Industry Experts

Discussions with Book Publishers

Discussions with Academic Researchers

ARIMA Models

Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Averages

Time series forecasting tool

Uses lags and shifts in historical data to uncover patterns and predict the future

Key Highlights and Findings

Key Highlights and Findings

Albert Greco, Senior Researcher, Institute for Publishing Research

Summary Data

ALL BOOKS

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Publishers' Net Dollar SalesMillions USD$ 34,628.90 35,686.10 37,085.20 38,298.00 39,595.90 40,732.50% change 3.2% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.9%

Publishers' UnitsMillions 3,085.80 3,102.70 3,148.10 3,180.00 3,205.70 3,223.20% Change 0.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.8% 0.5%

Domestic Consumer ExpendituresMillions USD$ 51,919.80 53,615.50 55,695.80 57,455.10 59,332.80 61,053.70% change 3.3% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9%

ESTIMATES PROJECTIONS

Adult Trade

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Juvenile Trade

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Mass Market Paperback

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Religious

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Professional Publishing

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

College Textbooks

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Elhi

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

University Press

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Standardized Tests

For additional statistics from

Book Industry TRENDS 2007, please visit http://www.bisg.org/publications/trends2007.html

to purchase a copy of the publication.

Thank you

Questions?

For more information:

Book Industry Study Group, Inc.

(646) 336-7141

www.bisg.org