Post on 22-Dec-2015
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
September 9-10, 2010InterContinental HotelBoston, Massachusetts
September 9-10, 2010InterContinental HotelBoston, Massachusetts
Bob Stahlwww.RAStahlCompany.com
www.tfwallace.com
Bob Stahlwww.RAStahlCompany.com
www.tfwallace.com
Sales & Operations Planning:Sales & Operations Planning:
Beyond the BasicsBeyond the BasicsSales & Operations Planning:Sales & Operations Planning:
Beyond the BasicsBeyond the Basics
IE GroupIE GroupSales & Operations Planning SummitSales & Operations Planning Summit
IE GroupIE GroupSales & Operations Planning SummitSales & Operations Planning Summit
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
With apologies to With apologies to Charles Charles
Dickens . . .Dickens . . .
With apologies to With apologies to Charles Charles
Dickens . . .Dickens . . .•Worst of Times . . .
These are perhaps the worst economic conditions in a generation or two . . . and it may get worse.
•Best of Times . . . For those who choose to use them, we have terrific tools in our hands today to deal with the uncertainty!
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Beyond the Beyond the Basics . . .Basics . . .Beyond the Beyond the Basics . . .Basics . . .• Basics
– Volume Balance– Gross Revenue Projections
• Simpler & Better Tools– Market-Facing Family Forecasting– Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX– Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis– Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.)
• Beyond the Basics– Strategic Planning– Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences– Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment
Top Management’s Handle on the Business
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
‘The Books’‘The Books’
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
QuickTime™ and aTIFF (LZW) decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Step #5ExecutiveMeeting
Decisions &Game Plan
Step #4Pre-S&OPMeeting
Conflict Resolution, Recommendations &
Agenda for Exec. Mtg.
Step #1Data
Gathering
End of Month
Sales Actuals, Statistical Forecasts
&Supply Actuals
Step #2DemandPlanning Management Forecast
1st-pass spreadsheets
Step #3Supply
Planning Capacity constraints2nd-pass spreadsheets
Heavy
Liftin
g
The Executive S&OP ProcessThe Executive S&OP Process
Creates a Disciplined Rhythm
Creates a Disciplined Rhythm
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Beyond the Beyond the Basics . . .Basics . . .Beyond the Beyond the Basics . . .Basics . . .• Basics
– Volume Balance– Gross Revenue Projections
• Simplified Tools– Market-Facing Family Forecasting– Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX– Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis– Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.)
• Beyond the Basics– Strategic Planning– Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences– Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment
Top Management’s Handle on the Business
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Customer View
Customer View
Historical View
Historical View
Market View
Market View
Reconciliation Process(The DAM Meeting)
Reconciliation Process(The DAM Meeting)
ConsensusForecast
ConsensusForecast
Applying “Puts & Takes”Applying “Puts & Takes”
CompanyForecastCompanyForecast
Multiple Views . . .Multiple Views . . .Multiple Views . . .Multiple Views . . .
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Simplifying Simplifying Data Data
Assumptions . . .Assumptions . . .
Simplifying Simplifying Data Data
Assumptions . . .Assumptions . . .RRP Run Rate Conversion
Units to Hours Control Chart
0.42
0.44
0.46
0.48
0.5
0.52
0.54
0.56
Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
2006 2007 2008
Hours per Unit
UCL LCL Hours per Unit Linear (Hours per Unit)
AssumptionSensitivity
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
An Example . . .An Example . . .An Example . . .An Example . . .Resource Requirements Plan - Dept #8
0
50
100
150
200
250
Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun JulAug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2007 2008 2009
Hours Per Month
Normal Capacity Normal Capacity +25%Medium Widget Required Capacity Large Widget Required Capacity
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
2007 Fiscal Year Status
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Revenue in 1000's Dollars
Cumulative Actual YTD Cumulative Original Plan 2007 Latest Call 2008 S&OP Plan
Original Plan 25,400$ Latest Call 25,540$ 2008 S&OP 27,959$
2007 Fiscal Year
Fiscal Information . . .Fiscal Information . . .
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Beyond the Basics . . .Beyond the Basics . . .Beyond the Basics . . .Beyond the Basics . . .
• Basics– Volume Balance– Gross Revenue Projections
• Simplified Tools– Market-Facing Family Forecasting– Simplifying Data Assumptions about MIX– Rapid Simulation & What-If Analysis– Full Financial Integration (P&L and Balance Sheet, etc.)
• Beyond the Basics– Strategic Planning– Scenario Analysis with Financial Consequences– Risk Management including Cash Flow & Capital Investment
Top Management’s Handle on the Business
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
““Strategic Planning . . Strategic Planning . . ..
forward in forward in reverse”reverse”
““Strategic Planning . . Strategic Planning . . ..
forward in forward in reverse”reverse”
Ro
ber
t H
aye
sH
BR
-No
v/D
ec 1
985
Str
ateg
ic P
lan
nin
g -
fo
rwar
d i
n r
ever
se
Exec
utiv
e S&
OP
Strategy
Tactics
Execution
ExecutiveS&OP
Ann
ual B
usin
ess
Plan
Master Schedule
DoingTheRightThings
DoingThe
ThingsRight
WidgetsWidgetsWidgetsWidgets
Two Scenarios:
1. Supply Leveled against Consensus Demand
2. Supply Leveled against High Demand
Consensus ForecastConsensus Forecast
High ForecastHigh Forecast
16Gross Revenue – High Forecast
17Direct Margin – High ForecastDirect Margin – High Forecast
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Center of Gravity . . Center of Gravity . . ..Center of Gravity . . Center of Gravity . . ..
Customers
Employees(Suppliers, Community, Country, Planet)
Owners
ExecutiveS&OP
ExecutiveS&OP
Desired Force = CentripetalNatural Force = Centrifugal
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Path of Success . . Path of Success . . ..Path of Success . . Path of Success . . ..
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Months
Business
Improvement
Phase IPhase IPilot Demo
Phase IIPhase IIExpansion
Live PilotDemonstrationGo/No-Go #2
Phase IIIPhase IIIFinancial Integratio
n
ExecutiveBriefing
Go/No-Go #1
KickoffSession
Low CostLow RiskHigh ImpactQuick Results
Low CostLow RiskHigh ImpactQuick Results
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Done Done Properly . . . Properly . . . Done Done Properly . . . Properly . . .
Simpler(Not Easier)
Better(in 90 Days!!!)
Bob Stahl www.tfwallace.comm www.RAStahlCompany.com
Good Luck & Good Luck & Thanks for Thanks for Listening Listening
Good Luck & Good Luck & Thanks for Thanks for Listening Listening
Bob Stahl
508-226-0477
RStahlSr@aol.comwww.RAStahlCompany.com
www.tfwallace.com