Bits, Atoms, Cells, Gears & JoulesThe Five Forces Driving the Next

Techno-Socio-Economic Revolution

August 2014 Jeff Wacker Principal Futurist JLWFutures

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

FRENZY

ERUPTION

Tec

hn

olo

gy

Dif

fus

ion

SYNERGY

MATURITY

Big Bang Crash Recovery and Transition

Professor Nickolai Kondratieff

(1892-1938)Excitement

Optimism

ThrillAnxiety

Denial

Fear

Desperation

Panic

Despondency

Hope

Relief

Optimism

Euphoria

Time

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

1771 INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION

CANAL PANIC 1797 (BRITAIN)

• Diffusion of manufacturing with water power• Full network of waterways (canals, rivers, oceans)• Development of public companies

CYCLE 1: INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION 1771-1829

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

1829 STEAM & RAILWAYS RAILWAY PANIC 1847 (BRITAIN)

• Economies of scale• Joint stock companies• Repeal of tariff laws/free trade

CYCLE 2: STEAM AND RAILWAYS 1829-1875

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

1875 STEEL, ELECTRICITY& HEAVY ENGINEERING

GLOBAL COLLAPSES

OF THE 1890’S(ARGENTINA,

AUSTRALIA, U.S.)

• Transcontinental rail, steamships and telegraph• Gold standard, global finance

CYCLE 3: STEEL, ELECTRICITY & HEAVY ENGINEERING 1875-1908

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

1908 AUTOMOBILES, OIL& MASS PRODUCTION

GREAT CRASHOF 1929

(U.S.)

• Interstate/international highways and airways• Welfare state, Bretton Woods, IMF, World Bank

CYCLE 4: AUTOMOBILES, OIL & MASS PRODUCTION 1908-1966

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLES

1966 INFORMATION &TELECOMMUNICATIONS

NASDAQ CRASH 2000 &

GLOBAL COLLAPSES(ASIA, ARGENTINA,

U.S.)

• Global digital telecommunications network• Institutional framework, facilitating globalization

CYCLE 5: INFORMATION & TELECOMMUNICATIONS 1966~2016

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KONDRATIEFF CYCLESCYCLE 6: INFOTECH2, NANOTECH, BIOTECH, ROBOTECH, ENERTECH

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bioPrinted Organs

Fully augmented Species

DNA Computing

Synthetic BiologyDesigner LifeformsGM Foods

Regeneration

Cloning(Humans)

de-Extintion

BIOTECHNOLOGY

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BIOTECHNOLOGY

Unintended ConsequencesMoral ethics

New bioWeapons

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NANO TECHNOLOGY

Homogen

ous

Heterogenous

Nanites

Self-assembly of nanoelectronic components

Ultra-X

nanoReplication

nanoSensors

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NANO TECHNOLOGY

Glowing Report

Seek and Destroy

Power Pack

Tiny Turbine

Alien Invasion

Smart BombMedicine Cabinet

Cell Control

Potential toxicityBinary nanoWeapons

Raw materials AvailabilityGrey Goo

molecular manufacturing

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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Micro

MacroFossil Fuels

Renewable Sources

Alternative, Alternative Sources

Parasitic Power

Distributed Generation

nanoGenerators

Conservation

Conservation

Ultrapure Batteries

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ENERGY TECHNOLOGY

Unrestricted growthNew source for weapons

Moderate jobs outlook

Thermopower waves Traveling Wave

Nuclear Power

Multiferroic AlloyCopyright JLWFutures 2014

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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY

Mobots

Immobots

Robot-built Robots

Process Automation

Modeling & Simulation

warbots

Expert SystemsTrue AI

serviceBots

factorybots

xxxBots

Non-humanoid form factors

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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY

Role of humans?New battlefields

Negative jobs outlook

Modeling & Simulation

ExpertSystems

Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing

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ROBOTICS TECHNOLOGY

Desensitivity to WarxRobot

“Terminator”Negative Jobs Outlook

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2

Self-assembly of nanoelectronic components

Computer-designed computers

Exponential IT

“Presence” interfaces

Overt

Ubiquitous IT

Mobile

Pervasive IT

Discrete

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2

Memristors & Neuromorphic Computing

Photonic Computing

2D to 3D Architectures

Quantum Computing

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INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY 2

Privacy!TMI

DependenceLoss of ControlCyber-Warfare

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INCREASED CHALLENGES/OPPORTUNITY FROM:

• INFORMATION OVERLOAD

• SECURITY CONCERNS

• ENVIRONMENTAL DISRUPTIONS

• GLOBALIZATION

• GEOPOLITICAL EVENTS

• SUSTAINABILITY

• RESOURCE MANAGEMENT

• ENERGY COSTS

• REGULATIONS

• RAPID SOCIAL SHIFTS

CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

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Recommended Reading on these topicsAbundance: The Future is Better Than You Think*

- Peter Diamandis & Steven Kotler

Radical Abundance: How a Revolution in Nanotechnology will Change Civilization- K. Eric Drexler

Singularity Rising: Surviving and Thriving in a Smarter, Richer and More Dangerous World - James D. Miller

Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy

- Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee

The Age of Context: Mobile, Sensors, Data and the Future of Privacy- Robert

Scoble & Shel Israel

- Newt Gingrich

* Read this one if you’re only going to read one - JLW

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Q&Ajeffwacker@verizon.net

Copyright JLWFutures 2014