The Payments PuzzlePart One

www.billingviews.com

Purpose of the Payments PuzzleThrough a campaign of surveys, interviews, analysis and

research, BillingViews aims to identify the winners and losers in the mobile payments arena.

This will enable operators to:• Refine the most effective business models• Make the right partnership choices• Invest in the right technology and infrastructure

Things we know• Payments are going mobile• Smartphones will be the battleground• The eco-system is complicated• The market is huge - $670bn by 2015

The new eco-system• Banks• Payments processors• Telcos• Google, Apple and friends• Device manufacturersvs• Merchants• Customers

Credit Cards

Google, Etc.

Merchants

Banks

Telcos

Devices Customers

Ecosystem:Likely winners, losers and maybes

Likely winners…and whyBanks –financial strength, regulations & compliancePayments processors – trust, established base? Telcos – reach, micro billing, customer relationships Google, PayPal and friends – internet innovation×Device manufacturers – except Google, Apple×Merchants – too many options and terminals, expense? Customers – too many options, ease of use,

competition

Many flavorsNFCWallets ISIS and similarCarrier billingCredit cards – inc. contactless developmentsApp store and in-app billing

Contactless

WalletsCarrier

Payment methods:Likely winners, losers and maybes

NFC

ISISApp Store

Take a bet!? NFC – much loved (much hyped)? Wallets – backed by Google? ISIS – serious carrier support $100s of millions invested? Carrier billing – easy and good for uptake? Credit cards – trusted and quick? App store and in-app billing – new, cool, but expensive

for product and content providers

So, follow the smart money!

But the smart money is hedging its bets:

• Carriers are supporting ISIS and other initiatives, while hoping that carrier billing will win

• Credit cards are backing NFC and wallets while trialing their own contactless solutions

• Everyone is supporting NFC (or pretending to), but why?• App stores are cool but expensive –ultimately merchants

will not pay more than 3% and will not pay more than one provider

So – it’s NFC, right?45 operators are backing itSingapore is insisting on itGoogle and PayPal are right thereTests are positiveBUT×Hardly any handsets yet×Hardly any terminals yet ×Hardly any infrastructure yet

The world could move on while we all get ready for NFC prime time.

So – to the Payments PuzzleQuestion 1 is:Which will be the most popular mobile payment method in three years’ time (by the end of 2014):a. Carrier billingb. Google walletc. ISIS (or other JV between carriers)d. Contactless credit cardse. PayPal

So – to the Payments PuzzleQuestion 2 is:In three years’ time (by the end of 2014) NFC will be:a. Ubiquitousb. One of several contactless technologiesc. Be the only alternative to contactless credit cardsd. Have disappearede. Be part of the crowd in the mobile payment eco-

system

So – to the Payments PuzzleQuestion 3 is:Who will be the dominant players in payments in three years’ time (by the end of 2014):a. Banksb. Telcosc. Credit card companiesd. PayPale. Someone else

Let us know:• Send us an email now with your choice for each

question in the text…

Question 1Which will be the most popular mobile payment method in three years’ time (by the end of 2014):

a. Carrier billingb. Google walletc. ISIS (or JV between carriers)d. Contactless credit cardse. PayPal

Question 2By the end of 2014 NFC will be:

a. Ubiquitousb. One of several contactless

technologiesc. The only alternative to

contactless credit cardsd. Gonee. Part of the crowd

Question 2Who will be the dominant players in payments by 2014:

a. Banksb. Telcosc. Credit Card

companiesd. PayPale. Other

When the results are in:• We will publish these results, analyze them, share

them with the world, and take them to mainstream media outlets.

That’s just the start of the campaign

Alex Leslie, Publisher

Part Two – m-payments, lessons from emerging economies