bi da bs potenciuri gavlenis gamoTvlebi

leqcia # 5

1. mimoxilva

• bi agentebis samxedro maxasiaTeblebi– slaidebi 2 - 5

• mgi/ strategiuli bi Setevebi– slaidebi 6 - 12

• bi agentebis warmoeba– slaidebi 13 - 16

• sxva tipis bi Setevebi– slaidebi 17 - 20

2. samxedro maxasiaTeblebi (i)

• bi Setevebis potencialis mravalferovneba– sxvadasxva samizneebi (adamianebi,

cxovelebi da mcenareebi)– sxvadasxva agentebi (baqteriebi, virusebi,

sokoebi, toqsinebi, bioregulatorebi)– sxvadasxva masStabi (ganadgureba,

taqtikuri samxedro, strategiuli samxedro, mgi)

– sxvadasxva mixnebi (Ria an faruli omi an terori)

3. samxedro maxasiaTeblebi (ii)

• bi agentebis samxedro klasifikacia– potenciurad infeqciuri dawyebuli pirveli

msxverplidan• mwyobridan gamomyvani (mag., gripis virusi)• momakvdinebeli (mag., Yersinia pestis – Savi

Wiri)

– arainfeqciuri pirveli msxverplisaTvis• mwyobridan gamomyvani (mag., Coxiella burnetii

- Q-cxeleba) • momakvdinebeli (mag., Bacillus anthracis - jilexi)

4. samxedro maxasiaTeblebi (iii)

• bi agentebis samxedro – sasurveli maxasiaTeblebi– agenti mudmivad erTidaigive efeqts unda

iZleodes– efeqtis gamosawvevi doza unda iyos dabali– unda hqondes mokle da ganWvretadi

sainkubacio periodi– samizne populacias unda hqondes dabali an

saerTod ar gaaCndesThe imuniteti

5. samxedro maxasiaTeblebi (iv)

• bi agentebis samxedro – sasurveli maxasiaTeblebi (gagr.)– daavadebis mkurnaloba samizne populaciaSi

SesaZlebeli ar unda iyos– mas, vinc iyenebs, unda hqondes jarebisa da

mosaxleobis dacvis saSualebebi– SesaZlebeli unda iyos agentis masobrivi

warmoeba– SesaZlebeli unda iyos agentis efeqturad

gavrceleba– agenti senaxvisa da aRWurvilobaSi gadatanis

dros stabiluri unda iyos.

6. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (i)

• gaero-s kvleva1969 wels

– erTi bobmdamSeni 10 tona bi agentiT• zemoqmedebis qveS myofi teritoria - 100,000 km2

• avadoba 50%, 25% sikvdili mkurnalobis gareSe

– teritoria iseTi zemoqmedebis qveSaa, 1 megatoniani birTvuli bombi rom yofiliyo gamoyenebuli

• 300 km2

– teritoria iseTi zemoqmedebis qveSaa, 15 tonanervuli gazirom yofiliyo gamoyenebuli

• 60 km2

7. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (ii)

• SIPRI –s 1973 wlis kvleva– erTi bobmdamSeni 5-6 tona WurvebiT– farTobi km2 –Si, romelzec SemTxvevebis

50% modis• maRali feTqebadoba 0.22• VX nervuli gazi 0.75• 10kt birTvuli bombi 30• biologiuri agenti 0 -50 (amindis pirobebis

mixedviT)

8. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (iii)

• feteris 1991 wlis kvleva JurnalSi “saerTaSoriso usafrTxoeba” (International Security)– erTtoniani raketa vardeba did qalaqSi

mosaxleobis simWidroviT 30 adamiani erT heqtarze• 20kt birTvuli iaraRi moklavs 40,000• 300kg zarini moklavs200 - 3,000• 30kg jilexi moklavs 20,000 - 80,000

9. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (iv)

• aSS-s teqnologiebis Sefasebis ofisis 1993 wlis angariSi: scenari I– raketiT Seteva ganxorcielda Rrublian dRisiT an

ramiT, zomieri qaris pirobebSi qalaqze daucveli mosaxleobiT 3,000-dan 10,000mde daucveli mosaxleobiT TiTo km2

• 12.5 kt birTvuli iaraRi gaanadgurebs 7.8km2 da moklavs 23,000-80,000 adamians

• 300kg zarini moklavs 60-200 adamians farTobze 0.22km2

• 30kg jilexi moklavs 30,000-dan 100,000-mde adamians sigaris formis kafsulaSi raketis 10km2

farTobze

10. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (v)

• aSS-s teqnologiebis Sefasebis ofisis 1993 wlis angariSi: scenari II– TviTfrinaviT Seteva 10 kg jilexis dafrqveviT

vaSingtonis msgavs qalaqze qaris mimarTulebiT• mowmendil mzian dRes susti qaris pirobebSi

zemoqmedebis qveS iqneba 46km2 da 130,000-dan 460,000-mde adamiani SeiZleba mokvdes

11. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (vi)

• tSo angariSi: scenari II (gagr.)– Rrublian dRisiT an ramiT zomieri qaris pirobebSi,

zemoqmedebis qveS iqneba 140km2 da 420,000-dan 1,400,000mde adamiani SeiZleba mokvdes

– mowmendil, mSvid Rames zemoqmedebis qveS iqneba 300km2 da1-dan 3 millionamde adamiani SeiZleba mokvdes

– mkafiod gansazRvruli agentis wyaro “idealur” pirobebSi (mag., ultraiisferi szivebis ararsebobis dros, ramac SeiZleba mospos sporebi ufro swrafad) SeiZleba iyos sruliad momakvdinebeli, da Zneli gaxdeba mravali adamianis daxmareba

12. mgi/strategiuli Setevebi (vii)

• zogi aRWurviloba cnobilia aSS bi programidan– marTvadi raketebis M210 Tavebi patara

WurvebiT (M143) SeimuSaves 1967 wels– Txevadi agentebis gasafrqvevi cisterna

A/B45Y-1 maRalsiCqarian taqtikur TviTfrinavebSi SeimuSaves 1965 wels

13. bi agentebis warmoeba (i)

• baqteriuli agentebis zrda fermentaciis meSveobiT saWiroebs– virulenturi paTogenis daTesili kultura– patara fermentorSi sawyisi zrda– warmoebiTi masStabis fermentorSi zrda– fermentoridan agentis Segroveba– saboloo damuSaveba, magaliTad,

liofilizacia

14 bi agentebis warmoeba (ii)

• pirdapiri dartymisatvis saWiro agentis raodenobis gamoTvla– warmoidgineT, rom pirvelwyaro aris

msxverpli, romelmac miiRo doza (D)• Q aris wyaros simZlavre (erTeuli/m) dro b

sunTqvis sixSire (moculoba/wuTi), gayofili h- ze - haeris fenis siRrme dro ū niSnavs zedapiruli qaris siCqares

• amrigad D= Q.b

h.ū

15. bi agentebis warmoeba (iii)

• wertilovani wyaros gaTvla (gagr.)– saWiro wyaros simZlavre namdvilad aris

• Q= D.h.ū b

– am raodenobebisaTvis tipiuri sidideebia• b=20 litri/min (2.10-2 m3min-1); h=1km (103m); ū= 5m/s

( 3.102mmin-1)

– Tamrigad, Tu D aris 10-jer infeqciuri doza (ID50)• Q=10.ID50.103.3.102

2.10-2

– amrigad, Tavdamsxmels Wirdeba daaxl. 108ID50/m

= 1.5.108.ID50

16. bi agentebis warmoeba (iv)• 10 km sigrZis xazovani wyarosaTvis

Tavdamsxmels Wirdeba– 108 ID50 jer 104 =1012ID50

• CavTvaloT, rom koncentracia aris 108 baqteriuli ujredi TiTo ml-Si, fermentorSi, Tavdamsxmels Wirdeba warmoeba– 1012 jer (ujredebis raodenoba, eqvivalenturi 1

ID50)/108jer1000) litri suspenzia

• mocemuli ID50 jilexisaTvis aris daaxl. 104

Tavdamsxmels dasWirdeba daaxl. 100,000 litri, rac SesaZlebelia 100 litriani aTi fermentoris aTi ciklis Sedegad

17. bi sxva tipis Setevebi (i)• soflis meurneobis sawinaaRmdego bi

– dabalteqnologiuri, didi Sedegebis mqone bioterorizmi– specialistebis codna naklebadaa saWiro, maRali

kontagiozurobis paTogenebi da soflis meurneobisaTvis udidesi xarjebi

– magaliTad, ertma kvlevam daadgina, rom• “Tuki paTogenebi, romelTac SeuZliaT iseTi daavadebebi

gamoiwvion, rogorebicaa Turquli, rqosani pirutyvis Wiri, Roris afrikuli cxeleba (Rac), soios Jangianoba, simindis filipinuri fifqiani rTvilianoba, kartofilis meWeWianoba, da citrusebis mwvane surdo, that cause diseases such as FMD, rinderpest, Seitaneba kontinentur aSS-s teritoriaze, mas SeiZleba seriozuli Sedegebi mohyves aSS-s ekonomikisaTvis.”

18. bi sxva tipis Setevebi (ii)• teroristuli Tavdasxma adamianebze

– aSS-s kongresis kvleviTi samsaxuris 2004 wlis angariSi Seicavs gafrTxilebas, rom ar unda aviRoT pirdapiri analogiebi Statebis programebidan• “q/b agentebi, romlebic sxva SemTxvevaSi did

safrTxed iTvleboda, Cans, rom ufro nakleb safrTxes Seicavs, rodesac ganvixilavT mcire zomis Setevis konteqstSi. sapirispirod, q/b agentebi, romlebic masobrivi Tavdasxmebis dros iTvleboda naklebi sadrTxis matareblad, ufro maRal safrTxes Seicavs mcire setevebis konteqstSi, vinaidan barierebi, romlebic arsebobs masobrivi gamoyenebis SemTxvevaSi, SeiZleba ar iyos, rodesac agenti mcire masStabiT ixmareba.”

19. bi sxva tipis Setevebi (iii)

• janmrTelobis msoflio organizaciis 1970 wlis angariSSi ganxilulia SesaZlo mgi-s sidide da sxva scenarebi– momakkvdinebeli da damauZlurebeli

antibiotikebisadmi rezistentuli biologiuri iaraRi meoradi SemTxvevebis gareSe (tularaemia)

– momakkvdinebeli da damauZlurebeli antibiotikebisadmi mgrZnobiare biologiuri iaraRi meoradi SemTxvevebiT(Savi Wiris filtvis forma)

– wyalmomaragebis dabinZureba tifis baciliT an botulizmis A toqsiniT

20. bi sxva tipis Setevebi (iv)

• cxel , mSral ganviTarebad qveyanaSi 1-milionian qalaqze SetevisaTvis gamoyenebuli iyo tifis 1kg liofilizirebuli kultura. Seteva ganxorcielda winaswari gafrTxilebis gareSe da qalaqis mTavrobas mosaxleoba ar gaufrTxilebia.– gamoTvlebis mixedviT, TiTo adamiani yoveldRiurad

moixmarda or litr sasmel wyals, da, amrigad, 125,000 adamiani miiRebda 100,000 mikroorganizms, da SesaZlebeli iyo bevri gamxdariyo avad

– Tuki ar arsebobda masobrivi mkurnalobis saSualeba, Setevis Sedegad daaxloebiT 4,500 adamiani SeiZleba gardacvliliyo

sanimuSo kiTxvebi

1. kritikulad SeafaseT Savi Wiris, gripis, tularemiis, botulizmis toqsinisa da Q cxelebis mniSvneloba saomari saqmisaTvis.

2. ra aris is struqturuli sirTuleebi, ris gamoc personalis sawinaaRmdego farTomasStabiani biologiuri Seteva nakleb mosalodnelia, rom moxdes am dros?

3. ganixileT xelmisawvdom literaturaSi mocemuli zogierTi gaTvla, romlis mixedviTac garkveul pirobebSi biologiuri iaraRi SeiZleba gamoyenebul iqnas, rogorc masobrivi ganadgirebis iaraRi (mgi).

4. Cans, rom soflis meurneobis sawinaaRmdego bioterorizmi dRes yvelaze warmatebuli SeiZleba iyos.imsjeleT.

wyaroebi

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Biotechnology and the Proliferation of Biological Weapons. Brassey’s, London

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Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: Assessing the Risks (Document No. OTA-ISC-559). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.

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Biological Attacks on Agriculture: Low Tech, High Impact Bioterrorism. Bio-Science, 52, 569-76. Available from http://www.accessmylibrary.com/comsite5/bin/aml2006_library_auth_tt.pl?item_id=0286-25690504

(slaidi 18)Shea, D. A., and Gottron, F. (2004) Small-scale

Terrorist Attacks Using Chemical and Biological Agents: An Assessment Framework and Preliminary Comparisons, CRS Report for Congress [Online] FAS [accessed 27 January 2009] available from http://www.fas.org/irp/crs/RL32391.pdf

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of Chemical and Biological Weapons, Geneva: WHO. Available from http://www.who.int/csr/delibepidemics/biochem1stenglish/en/index.html