Post on 05-Jan-2016
Benson Economic Outlook2013
National Economy Recession ended June 2009, slow recovery since 2008-2009: 8.7 million jobs lost 2010-2013 (May): 6.3 million jobs gained GDP up 15 consecutive quarters Unemployment still high: 7.6% (May) Some positive signs (housing, labor market, consumer
confidence) Fiscal policy/sequestration/budget cuts remain a threat Monetary policy/interest rates supportive of growth
Arizona Economy
Local EconomyBenson & Cochise County
Cochise County Retail Sales Growth
Jan 2007M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2008M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2009M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2010M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2011M
arM
ay JulSepN
ovJan 2012M
arM
ay JulSepN
ovJan 2013M
ar
-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50% Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Benson Retail Sales Tax Revenue Growth
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Jan 2
007
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
008
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
009
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
010
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
011
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
012
Mar
May
Jul
Sep
Nov
Jan 2
013
Mar
Compared to same month previous year; unadjusted
Retail SalesCochise County Benson (TPT Revenue)
2013* 4.5% -1.3%2012 4.5% 5.4%2011 -1.2% -5.6%2010 -4.8% -0.4%2009 -4.2% -4.8%2008 -6.5% 0.6%2007 -1.3% 38.2%Cochise County inflation-adjusted to CPI-U / Benson unadjusted* Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
Restaurant and Bar Sales Growth
Jan 2007M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2008M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2009M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2010M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2011M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2012M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2013M
ar
-40%-30%-20%-10%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
Cochise County Benson
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Restaurant and Bar SalesCochise County Benson
2013* -5.2% 15.1%2012 -4.4% -6.5%2011 -0.2% -11.1%2010 0.0% -3.7%2009 0.3% 9.1%2008 0.2% -0.6%2007 0.1% -3.1%Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
Accommodation Sales Growth
Jan 2007M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2008M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2009M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2010M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2011M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2012M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2013M
ar
-80%-40%
0%40%80%
120%160%200%
Cochise County Benson
Inflation adjusted; compared to same month previous year
Accommodation SalesCochise County Benson
2013* -14.6% 66.5%2012 -17.2% -13.7%2011 -13.1% -6.1%2010 8.3% 1.0%2009 -9.0% -5.5%2008 1.0% -7.5%2007 19.7% 17.6%Inflation-adjusted to CPI-U * Jan—Apr only; comparison to same period the previous year
Sales Outlook Countywide retail on rebound but
sequestration/defense cuts threaten Countywide hospitality will continue to
struggle, particularly accommodation Benson sales, particularly hospitality, will
continue to improve
Unemployment
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
United States ArizonaCochise County Benson (EPS)Benson (CER)
* Jan-May only; seasonally adjusted
Unemployment (Monthly)
Jan 2012
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
Jun
Jul
Au
g
Sep
Oct
No
v
Dec
Jan 2013
Feb
Mar
Ap
r
May
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
12.0%
13.0%
14.0%
15.0%
16.0%
8.3%
7.6%
8.6%
7.8%8.2%
8.1%
14.3% 14.1%
9.4%9.2%
United States ArizonaCochise County Benson (EPS)Benson (CER)
Nonfarm Job Growth (Cochise County)
Jan 2008M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2009M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2010M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2011M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2012M
arM
ayJulSepN
ovJan 2013M
arM
ay
-5.0%-4.0%-3.0%-2.0%-1.0%0.0%1.0%2.0%3.0%4.0%
Compared to same month previous year
Job Gains/Losses (Cochise County)
Professional and Business Services
Educational and Health Services
Manufacturing
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Information
Financial Activities
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
Mining and Construction
Federal Government
State and Local Government
-350 -250 -150 -50 50 150 250 350
325
150
75
50
25
25
0
-25
-100
-275
-300
Chart Title
12 months ended May 2013
Job Gains/Losses % (Cochise County)
Manufacturing
Professional and Business Services
Information
Educational and Health Services
Financial Activities
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
Other Services
Leisure and Hospitality
State and Local Government
Federal Government
Mining and Construction
-10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%
13.0%
7.8%
6.3%
3.0%
2.5%
0.8%
0.0%
-0.6%
-4.3%
-4.7%
-7.1%
Chart Title
12 months ended May 2013
Employment Outlook National and state labor market improving Government job losses (Fort Huachuca and
state/local) pose threat Border security deal may boost federal employment Nearby job creation (e.g., Rosemont Mine, Red Horse
Wind Project, Sierra Vista hospital construction) may help Benson residents
New Residential ConstructionSFR Permits
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
926
1,0461,108
900
472404 380
347 319274
0 25
104
25
64
38 3218
10
Cochise County Benson
Co
ch
ise
Co
un
ty
Be
ns
on
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20121,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2,200
2,400
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1,825
2,097
1,675
1,500
1,184
1,197 1,247 1,2031,286
152143 144
143
103101
89
77
90
Cochise County Benson
Coch
ise C
ount
y
Bens
on
Home SalesMLS only
Home PricesMedian Price (site-built only)
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013*$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
$160,000
$180,000
$200,000
$220,000
$139,900
$173,900
$192,569 $195,000
$184,000 $182,500
$173,172
$142,145
$119,000 $115,000
$80,250
$100,000
$128,950
$160,000
$145,000
$155,000
$125,000
$106,000 $88,250
$99,000
Cochise County Benson* 1st Quarter only
Outlook New residential construction stalled due to
competition from foreclosures Existing home sales volume given boost from
foreclosures/lower prices
Conclusion National economy hampered by fiscal woes/federal budget cuts,
but some positive signs State economy improving County
Defense budget cuts Border security deal may help
Benson Highway construction completed Job creation in nearby areas UAS training facility?