BARRELTEX - LBCG€¦ · 2016 & THE BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD BARRELTEX “THE BIGGER BETTER BARREL...

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Transcript of BARRELTEX - LBCG€¦ · 2016 & THE BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD BARRELTEX “THE BIGGER BETTER BARREL...

July 29, 2015

CARLTON DOLE DIRECTOR OF BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT

ECONOMICS OF THE PERMIAN CONDENSATE TRADE

THE CHANGING DYNAMICS FROM 2014 TO 2015… 2016 & THE BRIGHT FUTURE AHEAD

BARRELTEX “THE BIGGER BETTER BARREL BROKERS”

carlton@barreltex.com

832-768-5479

¡  Lease Condensate Approximately 200MB/D API 50-65 -Currently Crude Blended -2016 Seg. Ship Pipe PC/Split/Export ¡  Plant Condensate At Least 54MB/D (C5=39 GP=15) API 66+ -Diluent, Naphtha Pool, Last Year Canadian MKT

PERMIAN CONDENSATE PRODUCTION

¡  HYPOTHESIS 2016+ Less Lease Conde Blended & Less to Cushing -Take Away Capacity to GC Mid/Cush Mid/LLS GC Short ¡  Plant Conde 2014 Mid/CRW -$14 Now Mid/CRW +$4

¡  Shifting Fundamentals for Permian Condensate ¡  API in 50s & low 60s: Crude Blend or Cactus & Mid-Sealy -Lease Conde Cactus to GC: Splitter, Pet Chem, Stabilized-Export -Stabilized 50-65 API Mid-Sealy to GC: Splitter, Pet Chem, Export

A CAPTIVATING YEAR IN CONDENSATE

¡  Fundamental Drivers Cushing Inventory, Mid Refineries, Takeaway

¡ Midland bears 65% price crash & Perm has “triple-play” sweet spots

MIDLAND/CUSHING DIFFERENTIAL

2015 2012 - 2014

Midland Trades Premium

Inflection Point Midland -$17.50 Discount

¡  2014 Range MID/LLS -$5 to -$20 ¡  Current MID/LLS -$3 ¡  2016 Futures Calendar 2016 Avg. Implies MID/LLS -$3.50

MIDLAND TO GULF COAST OVERVIEW

TAKEAWAY OVERVIEW

¡ Mesa, Basin, Sunrise Trunklines feed Colorado City

¡  Longhorn 275MB/D $2.50 ¡  Permian Express I & II 350MB/D I $1.93 - $2.63 II $2.10-$2.90 ¡  BridgeTEX 300 MB/D $2.38 - $3.84 ¡  Cactus 250MB/D Gardendale 120MB/D Stabilizer $1.50 - $2.50 ¡ Midland-Sealy 2017 Planned 540MB/D 4-Grades Batched Conde

PERMIAN TO GULF COAST PIPELINES

¡  Upton County (Odessa) 55 API Condensate FOB Lease Mid -$6.50 ¡  Local (1.50) to Mid blend to 42 ($3) Sell Midland -$1 ¡  (Cush) (1 .50) Odessa Station, $1 Basin, .50 Shrink, T/S $1, Cush - .50

¡  To Crane ($2), blend 44 API(2.50), LH(2.50), T/S $1, LLS -2.50 ¡  To McCamey ($2.25), Cactus 1.50, Corp 1.25 *LLS -$4 (Split/PetChem) ¡  To McCamey ($2.25), Cactus 1.50, Stab. 1 .50, Corp 1.25 *LLS -$4 Ex Dock

¡  *Current Corpus MKT LLS -$4 Consider Future Demand & Export ¡  2016 GC Conde 850MB/D Production & 1.5MMB/D Processing

PERMIAN OPTIONALITY EXAMPLE

¡  Let’s continue discussing these developments in 2016 ¡  Linked-In Carlton Dole ¡  carlton@barreltex.com 832-768-5479 ¡  Stay Informed on Condensate Developments Join Linked-In

Group “Condensate North America”

LETS STAY CONNECTED

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