Post on 26-Dec-2015
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
MBA, Semester 2
Operations Management
Prof. Aarti Mehta Sharma
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
Capacity Planning
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreCapacity
- The ability to hold, receive, store or accommodate- Amount of output that a system is capable of
achieving over a period of time
For Example :
No. of customers that can be handled between 11am and 1pm
No. of automobiles that can be produced in a single shift.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Long term capacity plans – investments in new facilities and equipments covering requirements at least two years in the future.eg. Samsung, Pepsi
• Short term capacity plans – focus on work – force size, overtime budgets, inventories etc. eg. Accenture
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Fixed Capacity : capital assets (buildings, machinery, equipment etc)
• Adjustable Capacity : size of the workforce, no. of hours per week hey work, no. of shifts and the extent of subcontracting
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Long term Capacity
Planning Questions• Continued investment in people, technology, research
and development, and capital assets. Long term effects on Finance and Production.
- How should a plant be able to produce ?- How many customers should a service facility be able
to serve ?- How much of a cushion is needed for uncertain,
variable demand ?
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
- Should the capacity be expanded based on forecast of demand or should the capacity expansion be taken up only after the demand becomes more certain ?
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Factors affecting
Long Term Capacity Planning• Forecast growth in demand• Future upgrading of technology• Anticipated moves by competitors• Reliance on learning curves• Availability of funds for future investments• Cost of new capacities to provide economies of scale
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
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annual volume
av
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t Economies
of Scale
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Economies of
Scale• The average unit cost of a good or service can be
reduced by increasing the rate of output• The annual volume of output which results in the
least cost = best operating level
Fixed costs are driven down when :
1. fixed costs can be spread over a large no. of units produced
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
2. Production costs do not increase linearly with output levels
3. Quantity discounts are available for material purchases
4. Operating efficiency increases as workers gain experience
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Diseconomies
Of Scale• Above a certain level of output, additional volume of
output results in ever increasing average unit costs.• Due to overloading of machines, increased
congestion of materials and handling equipments, slower service times, poor quality requiring rework, difficulty in management
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore The Experience
Curve - Practice Makes Perfect • A line displaying the relationship between unit production
time and the cumulative no. of units produced• Integral part in planning corporate strategy • As plants produce more – gain experience in the best
production methods – reduce cost of production• Varies across industries• First applied in the airline industry
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreAssumptions
• The amount of time required to complete a given task or unit of a product will be less each time the task is undertaken.
• The unit time will decrease at a decreasing rate
• The reduction of time will follow a predictable pattern
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Airline Industry
• As Output doubled – 20 % reduction in production worker hours
• 1,00,000 hours for plane 1• 80,000 hours for plane 2• 64,000 hours for plane 4• ----- known as 80 % learning curve
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreWrt TIME
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5
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100 200 300 400 500 600
unit number
tim
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nit
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore wrt no. of units
0
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0 5 15 25 30 35
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average output
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreLogarithmic
Analysis• Yx = kxⁿ
x = unit number
Yx = Number of direct labor hours required to produce the xth unit
k = Number of direct labor hours required to produce the first unit
n = log b / log 2 where b = learning %
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreQ
Unit No. Direct labor hours
Cumulative hrs
Cumulative average
1 1,00,000 1,00,000 1,00,000
2 80,000 1,80,000 90,000
4 64,000 314,210
(3,08,000)?
78,553
8 51,200 534,591 66,824
16 40,960 892,014 55,751
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreQ
• To calculate time for eighth unit
• Y8 = (1,00,000)(8)ⁿ
• Y8 = (1,00,000) log 0.8 / log 2
• = 51,192
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Advantage :
Larger Plants• Gain from Economies of Scale and the Experience
curve • Build larger plants – larger capacity
But …
- product must meet customer needs
- Demand should be large
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Various types
of capacities• Production capacity
maximum rate of production ( or output ) in a day
- 100 cars per day
- 200 refrigerators per day
Factors :
- employee absenteeism, equipment breakdown, holidays, delays in material procurement / delivery, overtime, temporary workers, outsourcing
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreMeasures of
capacity • Output measures to express the capacity of line flow
processes• Input measures for flexible flow processes
Capacity utilisation rate = capacity used (actual output )
best operating level ( design capacity )
Efficiency = actual output
effective capacity
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreMeasures of
Capacity• Automobile factory – no. of vehicles• Steel Mill – Tonnes of stel• Power Plant – megawatts of elec generated• Job Shop – Labour Hours worked• Airline – No. of seats• Hospital – No. of Beds• Movie Theatre – No. of seats• Restaurant – no. of seats
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Determinant - To smooth out
capacity requirementsUnevenness in capacity may be due to seasonal
(predictable) / random (unpredictable) variations –
can cause overloading / underloading of machines & personnel
solution – produce complementary products ( air conditioning / heating ) – stable capacity
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreTaking a
“big picture” approach must consider how different parts interrelate
For eg. When mgt of a 5 star hotel decides to increase the number of rooms – increase in parking space, restaurant seating, staff etc
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Frequency of
Capacity Additions• Cost of upgrading too frequently
expensive – cost of m/c and installation
• Cost of upgrading too infrequently
expensive – capacity is purchase in chunks, larger overheads
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Determining
capacity requirements• Use forecasting techniques to predict sales for
individual products• Calculate equipment and labor requirements• Project labor and equipment availabilities over the
planning horizon
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
Capacity Alternatives
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreQ
The whitening company produces two varieties of detergents : Sirf and ExSirf. Each is available in bags and single serving pouches. Management would like to determine equipment and labor requirements for the same. The marketing department has provided the following forecast for the next five years.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
1 2 3 4 5
Sirf
Bags(000s) 60 100 150 200 250
Pouches(000s) 100 200 300 400 500
ExSirf
Bags(000s) 75 85 95 97 98
Pouches(000s) 200 400 600 650 680
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
Currently, there are three machines that can package upto 150,000 bags each. Each machine requires 2 operators and can produce bags of Sirf and ExSirf. six bag operators are available. 5 machines that can package upto 250,000 pouches each per year are available. Three operators are reqd for each machine, which can produce pouches of both Sirf and ExSirf. Currently, 20 pouching machine operators are available
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Total product line forecasts
Year 1 2 3 4 5
Bags 135 185 245 297 348
Pouches 300 600 900 1050 1180
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Total capacity for bags = 3 * 1,50,000
= 4,50,000• We will be using 135 / 450 = 0.3 for yr 1• 0.3 * 3 = 0.9 machines• Total capacity for bags = 5 * 250,000
= 1,250,000• For yr 1 , usage = 300 / 1250 = 0.24 • Machine usage = 0.24 * 5 = 1.2 machines
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreLabor
Requirement• For yr 1• 0.9 * 2 = 1.8 operators = 2• 1.2 pouch machines * 3 = 3.6 = 4 operators
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreProject Labor
and Equipment availabilitiesYear 1 2 3 4 5
Pouch
% capacity used
24 48 72 84 94
Machine req 1.2 2.4 3.6 4.2 4.7
Labor req 3.6 7.2 10.8 12.6 14.1
Bag
% capac used 30 41 54 66 77
Machine req 0.9 1.23 1.62 1.98 2.31
Labor req 1.8 2.46 3.24 3.96 4.62
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
Available capacity exceeds demand for all five years
--- positive capacity cushion
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Identifying and
Analysing Sources Of CapacityWhere present capacity is not sufficient to meet the
forecast demand for the products and services- Subcontracting component parts, sub units or even
entire products to other firms- Acquiring other firms, facilities or resources- Building new plants, equipments, machinery- Expanding, modernising or modifying existing
facilities- Reactivating facilities which are on stand by status.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore When the present capacity
is in excess of the future needs
• Selling off existing facilities, selling inventories and laying off or transferring employees
• Placing some facilities on stand by status and selling the inventories
• Developing and phasing in new products as other products decline
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreSelecting from the
alternative sources of capacity- Economically feasible ?
- Operating and maintenance costs
- Time taken to acquire ?
- Useful life ?
- compatible with present personnel and operating methods ?
- Community attitude ?
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreAnalysis
• Decision tree analysis• Break even analysis• Financial analysis• Computer simulation or waiting line analysis
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreDecision
tree analysis• Schematic model of the sequence of steps
in a problem and consequence of each step
• Squares – decision points
• Circles – chance events
• Branches from chance events - probabilities
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
Helpful in visually displaying the problem and then organizing the computational work .
Very useful when a sequence of decisions must be made
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreCase
The owner of Hacker computer store is considering what to do with his business over the next 5 yrs. Sales growth has been good but could grow more if a major electronics firm is built in his area as proposed. Hackers owner sees three options – enlarge his current store, locate to a new site. Or do nothing. The decision to expand or move would take little time, and, therefore, the store would not lose time. If nothing were done the first year and strong growth occurred, the decision to expand would be
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
reconsidered. Waiting longer than one year would allow competition to move in and make expansion no longer feasible.
The assumptions and conditions are as follows :
1. Strong growth as a result of the increased population of computer fanatics from the new electronics firm has a 55 % prob
2. Strong growth with a new site would give annual returns of Rs. 195,000 per year. Weak growth with a new site would mean annual returns of Rs. 115,000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
3. Strong growth with an expansion would give annual returns of Rs. 190,000 per year. Weak growth with an expansion would mean annual returns of Rs. 100,000
4. At the existing store with no changes, there would be returns of Rs. 170,000 per year if there is strong growth and Rs. 105,000 per year if growth is weak.
5. Expansion at the current site would cost Rs. 87,000
6. The move to the new site would cost Rs. 210,000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
7. If growth is strong and the existing site is enlarged during the second year, the cost would still be Rs. 87,000
8. Operating costs for all options are equal.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreSolution
strong growth = 765,000 move 0.55 585,000 weak growth-0.45= 365,000 strong growth = 863,000 expand 0.55 660,000 weak growth = 413,000 0.45 expand843000 do nothing strong growth(0.55) do nothing
703,750 850,000
weak growth(0.45) = 525,000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• To move move to new location, strong growth: (rev)195,000 * 5 – 210,000(cost) = 765,000 (value ) move to new location, weak growth: (rev)115,000 * 5 – 210,000(cost) = 365,000 (value )Total value = Rs.765,000 × 0.550 + ( Rs. 365,000 × 0.45 ) = Rs. 585,000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Expand
expand store, strong growth
190,000× 5 – 87,000 = 863,000
Expand store, weak growth
100,00 × 5 – 87,000 = 413,000
Total value = 863,000 × 0.550 + 413,000 × 0.45 = 660,500
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreDo nothing now
• Do nothing now, strong growth, expand next year
(170,000 x 1yr + 1,90,000 × 4 yrs ) – 87,000
= 843,000• Do nothing now, strong growth, do not expand next
year
(170,000 x 5 yr ) – 0 = 8,50,000• (8,50,000 × 0.550 = 467500) + (843,000× 0.45 =
379350 ) = 846,850
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Do nothing now, weak growth,
(105,000 x 5 yr ) – 0 = 5,25,000• Final
(846,850 × 0.550 = 465767) + (525,000 × 0.45 = 236250) = 702017
As this course of action gives the highest returns;
Do nothing
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreCase
E education is a new start up that develops and markets MBA courses over the internet. The company is currently located in Bangalore and employs 150 people. It needs to plan for the coming 5 years.Due to strong growth the company needs additional office space. The company has the option of leasing additional space at its current location in Bangalore for the next two years, but after that will need to move to a new building. Another option the company is considering is moving the entire operations to a small central India town immediately.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
The third option is for the company to lease a new building in Bangalore immediately. If the company chooses the first option and leases new space at its current location, it can be at the end of two years, either lease a new building in Bangalore or move to a small Central India town.
• The company has a 75 % chance of surviving the next two years
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Leasing the new space for two years at its current location in Bangalore would cost Rs. 750,000 per year
• Moving the entire operation to a Central India town would cost Rs. 10 lakh. Leasing space would run only Rs. 500,000 per year.
• Moving to a new building in Bangalore would cost Rs. 200,000 and leasing the new buildings space would cost Rs. 650,000 per year.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• The company can cancel the lease at any time• The company will build its own building in five
years, if it survives.• Assume all other costs and revenues are the same no
matter where the company is located
What should E Education do ?
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
stay in Bangalore survive(0.75) lease new space lease space for 2 yrs move to cent I fail(0.25) stay in Bangalore survive(0.75) E Ed lease new space fail (0.25)
move to central survive( 0.75) India town fail (0.25)
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreOption 1
Stay in Bangalore • Lease space for two years, survive, lease new
building in Bangalore
750,000×2 + 200,000 + 650,000 × 3
= 3650000• Lease space for two years, survive, move to Central
India
750,000×2 + 10,00,000 + 500,000 × 3
= 4000000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreOption 1
Stay in Bangalore• Lease space for two years, fail
750,000 × 2 = 15,00,000
Total cost(survive) = (3,650,000 × 0.75 ) +
(4,000,000 × 0.25) = 3737500
Total cost = 3737500 ×0.75 + 1500000×0.25 =
= 2803125 + 375000
= 3178125
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreOption 2
• Stay in Bangalore, lease new bldg in Blr, survive 200,000 + (650,000 * 5 ) = 3,450,000• Stay in Bangalore, lease new bldg in Blr, fail 200,000 + (650,000 * 2 ) = 1,500,000
(3450000 × 0.75) + (1500000 × 0.25 ) = 29,62,500
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreOption 3
Move to CI, survive
1,000,000 + ( 500,000 * 5 ) = 3,500,000
Move to CI, fail
1,000,000 + ( 500,000 * 2 ) = 2,000,000
Option 3
(3500000 × 0.75) + (2000000 × 0.25 )
= 3125000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreSolution
Stay in Bangalore and lease a new building
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreQ
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL BangaloreQ
make or buy decisionThe ABC company manufactures and sells refrigerators.
It makes some of the parts for the refrigerators and purchases others. The Engg deptt believes it might be possible to cut costs by mfg one of the parts currently being purchased for Rs.8.25 each. The firm uses 100,000 of these parts each year. The accounting deptt compiles the following list of costs based on engg estimates :
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
- Fixed costs will increase by Rs 50,000- Labor costs will increase by Rs. 1,25,000- Factory overhead, currently running Rs. 500,000 per
year, may be expected to increase 12 %- Raw materials used to make the part will cost Rs
600,000Given the preceding estimates, should ABC make the
part or continue to buy it ?
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Total cost if the part were manufactured - Additional Fixed Costs Rs 50,000- Additional Labor Costs Rs. 125,000- Raw Materials Cost Rs.600,000 - Additional Overhead Cost
( 0.12 × Rs 500,000) Rs. 60,000
total Cost to Manufacturer Rs. 835,000
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore
• Cost per unit to manufacturer
Rs. 835,000 / 100,000 = Rs. 8.35 per unit
As there is an additional cost of Rs 0.10, should continue to buy the part.
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AMITY GLOBALBUSINESS SCHOOL Bangalore Capacity Planning
Environment• Strong management will
• Good forecasting models
• Uniform demand from market (including seasonal demand)
• Decision taking ability