Post on 15-Apr-2017
1120160831_Berylls_Lightweight_Forum-Alpbach_FINAL.pptx
LIGHTWEIGHT INNOVATION
LIGHTWEIGHT CONCEPTS / DESIGN
LIGHTWEIGHT MATERIAL /TECHNOLOGIES
A „LIGHT CAR“ makes use of …
A definition: Automotive lightweight – from lightweight material to lightweight design …
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
… and requires not only material and product application know-how, but processing and joining know-how as well.
Aluminum
Tailored Properties
(Carbon) Fibrereinforced Plastics
MAGNESIUM Ceramics
TEXTILES
BIO COMPOSITES
HIGH-STRENGTH
STEEL (HSS)
…
PARTS INTEGRATIONFunctional integration
BIONIC DESIGNHybrid
solutions LOAD LEVELCONCEPTS
Topology optimization
…
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1.000
800
900
1970 1980 2000 20101990600
1.400
1.300
1.100
1.200
700
Golf VI
Golf IV
Golf V
Golf III
Golf VII
Golf IGolf II
… with heavy impact – the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (1/3)
Source: Volkswagen, Berylls Strategy Advisors
VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS
CO2EFFICIENCY
POWERTRAINELECTRIFI-CATION (xEV)
EXAMPLE: VW GOLF – VEHICLE WEIGHT INCREASE ACROSS GENERATIONS
+53%
FOCUS ON WEIGHT
REDUCTION
> Increase of vehicle size> Passive safety (NCAP rating, …)> New comfort functions
(HVAC, power seats, …)> Higher requirements on
• Ride & handling (controls, …)• NVH (glass, insulations, …)
kg, standard equipment, basic performance engine
Lightweight design needed to reverse the weight spiral of additional vehicle content and functions!
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… with heavy impact – the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (2/3)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS
CO2EFFICIENCY
POWERTRAINELECTRIFI-CATION (xEV)
EXAMPLE: CO2 TARGETS EUROPE AND LEVERAGE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN
95
140
50
2025
75
20202015
Fleet target in g CO2/km
Ultra lightweight design
ICE optimi-zation
Multi-material-design
PHEV/BEV
350
150
100
50
0150100500
Attractiveness of alternative CO2-measures
CO2 Reduction (g/km)
Addi
tiona
l cos
t (€
/g C
O 2re
duct
ion)
ICE optimi-zation
NeuerStahlleichtbau
Ultra lightweight design
Multi-material-design
HEV
BEV incl. Range Extender
BEV
Lightweight design as an important lever to apply to future CO2 emissions regulations (2020 and beyond)
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… with heavy impact – the 3 key drivers for lightweight design in Automotive (3/3)
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
Lightweight design crucial for xEV performance, to limit weight increase with direct impact on vehicle reach and/or battery size and cost
VEHICLE CONTENT & FUNCTIONS
CO2EFFICIENCY
POWERTRAINELECTRIFI-CATION (xEV)
EXAMPLE: ADDITIONAL WEIGHT BY ALTERNATIVE POWERTRAIN
Additional powertrain weight in kg – exemplary Vehicle weight examples in kg
300
250
100
75
20
Mild Hybrid
Start/Stop
PHEV
Full Hybrid
BEV
1.5851.386
BEVICE
1.233
PHEV PHEV
2.215
ICE
1.960
+153 kg
+275 kg+199 kg
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Example –The future market for “lightweight body design“ will grow fivefold to almost €100bn (2025)
1 High-strength steel (HSS), Advanced high-strength steel (AHSS), Ultra high-strength steel (UHSS)2 “Light vehicles” definition: including passenger cars, pick-ups and light trucks (up to 3.8 tons)Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
Lightweight Body Design – Market Growth...in bn €, light vehicles, global
121
74
2199
2012
173
2025
142
Lightweight design(CAGR +12.7%)
Conventional steel(CAGR -3.7%)
> Global vehicle market1 to grow by almost 50% until 2025
• from 79 mn. units (2012) …
• … to 118 mn. units (2025, expected)
> Strong shift to lightweight design
• Lightweight design market growth in all regions, including China
• Diffusion into small vehicle segment – lightweight material to almost catch-up with conventional steel
> Multi-material design on the rise
• In 2025, almost 1/3 of all vehicles will apply multi-material solutions (steel- or aluminum-intensive)
> Lightweight design still a steel market in the future~75% of market will be high- to ultra-high-strength steel
COMMENT
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Example – Continued high growth potential for lightweight body design in Europe, and China will almost have caught up with Europe by 2025
Comment: Regions correspond to vehicle production location Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
20252012
41
2012
28
2012 2025
50
2025
3430 31
Body market growth by region, in bn €, light vehicles
EUROPE NAFTA CHINA
> European OEMs/suppliers as innovation leader since years
> European Premium segment as key driver
> Tight European CO2 regulations
> Big 3 (FCA, Ford, GM) need to catch up on vehicle weight
> European transplants to introduce lightweight value creation
> By far strongest production growth> Strong and fast catch up with
state-of-the-art technology> Local investments by all
international OEMs/suppliers
Conventional steel
Lightweight design
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Know-how requirements for lightweight design innovations – 3 dimensions
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
> New alloys, new composites
> New material combinations
> Material treatment
> Etc.
MATERIAL PROCESS FUNCTION
COLLABORATIONSUPPLIER
OEM
> Semi-finished products
> Machining and joining technologies
> Process design and management
> Etc.
> Requirements engineering
> Technical concepts and solutions design
> Application engineering
> Simulation and testing
> Etc.
FOCU
S
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How to exploit future lightweight markets –… and key success factors for all players
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions –INNOVATION CAPABILITIES!
Supply of global markets –GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE!
1
2
3 Leverage across the value chain –INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!
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> Focus on steel in the past> Innovation invest to catch up
Decade of diversity – both heterogeneity and individualization are still on the rise in lightweight body design solutions
Source: Company information; Berylls Strategy Advisors
1
EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT BODY DESIGN – A DECADE OF DIVERSTITY> Innovations at the core> Premium as front runner
> Very strong material competence
> Volume applications in focus
> Strong presence of steel sector> Limited application innovation
know-how
Load level conceptsE.g. weight spread of alternative drive systems
Smart lightweight steel constructionE.g. VW Golf VIICFRP
E.g. BMW i3 passenger cell
Hybrid solutionsE.g. Audi A6 front roof frame
Integral constructionE.g. suspension strut dome of the Porsche Panamera
Tailored solutionsE.g. tailored welded blanks
Multi-material designE.g. Audi TT (2nd
generation)
LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN“AT ITS BEST“–
competition for the “best“lightweight design solutions
of the future
Topology optimizationE.g. Mercedes Benz SL
Mastering the diversity of light weight solutions – INNOVATION CAPABILITIES!1
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Global footprint – Localization of the engineering and production value chain becomes a must as markets for lightweight design go global
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
2
EXAMPLE: Metal forming companies – selected players
> Larger players> Internationalization, with focus
on U.S. market, still
> Mid-sized to very large players> Focused internationalization
“with the customer”
> Strong footprint home markets> Some internationalization
with Japanese (Korean) OEMs
> Business focus/footprint China> Some M&A internationally
expected
Supply of global markets – GLOBAL FOOTPRINT & BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE!2
Global
Company Size (turnover)
Local
Engineering & Production
Footprint
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Collaboration – For lightweight design innovations, a comprehensive perspective across the whole value chain is needed, to bring in the right set of partners
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
3
EXAMPLE: LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN NETWORK GERMANY
> Large steel/aluminum industries> Comparatively high OEM
in-house parts production
> Leading players across the value chain
> Strong research communities
> Highly integrated value chains> Tightened networks
> Almost no R&D history> Technology networking not part
of the DNA
Leverage across the value chain – INDUSTRIES NETWORK & PARTNERING!3
Materials/Alloys
Semi-finished products
Machinery equipment
Tooling Forming & Joining
Assembly
> DLR> Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft> Laser Zentrum Hannover> Leibnitz-Institute
> TU Bergakademie Freiberg> RWTH Aachen> TU Dresden> TU München
> CFK-Valley Stade e.V.> Forschungscampus ARENA 2036> Initiative Massiver Leichtbau> Cluster Neue Werkstoffe
(Bayern Innovativ)
> VDI, VDMA, VDA, VCI> Industrievereinigung Verstärkte
Kunststoffe> WV Metalle, WV Stahl
OEM+
SUPPLIERS
RESERACH INSTITUTES
UNIVERSITIES
CLUSTERS & NETWORKS
ASSOCIATIONS
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INNOVATIONCAPABILITIES
GLOBAL FOOTPRINT& BUSINESS PERSPECTIVE
INDUSTRY NETWORK & PARTNERING
Overall, Europe seems well prepared to master the future for lightweight design in Automotive
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
1FUTURE
PERSPECTIVE
2 3
!As China is on the rise – both from a market as well as from an industry player perspective – European players will have to deal with a tightening competition
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The future role of Europe – and the perspective for the Automotive lightweight industry
Source: Berylls Strategy Advisors
ESTABLISHED and WELL-KNOWN PLAYERS across the value chain
Coverage of the
WHOLE lightweightvalue chain …
GLOBAL INNOVATION LEADERS with a TRADITION OF INNOVATION FOR DECADES
… from material disciplines to
MACHINERY & equipment to
PRODUCT & PROCESS SOLUTIONS
The MOST INNOVATIVECAR SEGMENT (premium
cars) right on the doorstep
AN UNRIVALED
NETWORK OFR&D INSTITUTESAND FACILITIES
PUBLIC FUNDING AS ONE OF THE CORE INDUSTRIES
THE FUTURE OF LIGHTWEIGHT DESIGN:
Strategic (and operational) collaboration across the
value chain!