Post on 05-Jan-2016
Au contraire! Anti-smoking campaigns are responsible for a significant decline in high school smoking since 2001.
That’s gross.
Those stupid anti-smoking campaigns don’t’ work, anyway.
Au contraire! The number of high school seniors who are smokers has fallen nearly 15% since 2001.
Omigod! Did you see Donna totally smoking Marlboros at the party Saturday! Everybody seems to be smoking these days!
Donna! Omigod? What are you DOING?
Au Contraire! Alcohol use and smoking are declining among seniors, but the rate of use of alcohol is still over twice the rate of tobacco use.
That picture’s whack. Everybody smokes when the drink, and everybody drinks.
Boys are smarter than girls.
Raw Observation
2010 State
2001 State
Raw Observation
2010 State
2001 State
The shift is cluttered by the various options in the question.
To use this statistic well I need to clarify it.
But I must be careful not to make a logical or ethical mistake.
Logical mistake:
“The longer ago students smoked, the more likely they were to quit.”
No sixth graders smoked. 9th graders smoked at 1/3 the rate of 12th graders. Each 12th grade smoker recruited at least 2, and perhaps as many as 3, freshmen to smoke.
Ethical mistake:
Only those who smoke 1/5 of the time can be considered ‘smokers.’ I will put the 7% of male seniors who smoked 1-5 days in with the group who smoked 0 days, creating a ratio of 88% nonsmokers to 11%
Another way to put it would be if it went like this:
more than 1 day 24% 19%
Using just this survey data and nothing else, choose an answer for each claim.
You may answer ‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 1: Anti-smoking campaigns are responsible for a significant decline in high school smoking since 2001.
CLAIM 1: Anti-smoking campaigns are responsible for a significant decline in high school smoking since 2001.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 2: The number of high school seniors who are smokers has fallen nearly 15% since 2001.
CLAIM 2: The number of high school seniors who are smokers has fallen nearly 15% since 2001.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 3: by 2020, fewer than 10% of high school seniors will be smokers.
CLAIM 3: by 2020, fewer than 10% of high school seniors will be smokers.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 4: Roughly 35% of Minnesotans born between 1982 and 1985 are smokers.
CLAIM 4: Roughly 35% of Minnesotans born between 1982 and 1985 are smokers.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 5: Major gains in reducing teen smoking have been seen in the past ten years.
CLAIM 5: Major gains in reducing teen smoking have been seen in the past ten years.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 6: Smoking reduction efforts among teens have been almost 25% more effective among girls than boys.
CLAIM 6: Smoking reduction efforts among teens have been almost 25% more effective among girls than boys.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 7. High school students who smoke even a single cigarette in any month are likely to become smokers for life.
CLAIM 7. High school students who smoke even a single cigarette in any month are likely to become smokers for life.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 8: Differences between the behavior of boys and girls are much greater than they were 10 years ago.
CLAIM 8: Differences between the behavior of boys and girls are much greater than they were 10 years ago.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
2001 M12 F12Never smoke: 63% 64%
2010: Never smoke: 76% 81%
CLAIM 9: Girls are smarter than boys.
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’
‘refuted’, ‘confirmed’, ‘supported’, or ‘insufficient data to refute or support.’