Assessing Iranian

Security

Capabilities:

The Case of the

Green Movement

Protests, 2009-

2011

Martin Scott Catino, Ph.D.

American Military University

Disclaimer

The views expressed in this presentation

are completely my own and do not

necessarily represent the views of

American Military University or any

other organization associated with the

presenter/author.

What Was the Green Movement?

The Most Serious Challenge to the regime

since the Islamic Revolution of 1979

Sheer numbers: millions?

Penetration of Tehran:

Government, economic, and

population hub

Decentralization: spontaneity;

fluidity; and agility

Ideology: deep-seated

antipathy to the regime

Durability? 2009 to 2011Protests of the June 2009 Presidential Elections

Research Question?

What role did the Iranian security

forces play in the defeat and

degradation of the Green Movement?

Thesis

This paper will assert that the defeat of the Green Movement

occurred as a result of more than “brutal crackdowns” by Iranian

security forces. Rather, the Iranian regime demonstrated strategic

security capabilities including cohesive institutional backing of the

state, comprehensive operational skills, mass tactical ground

support, and ideological strength exploited by Iran’s senior

leadership, which effectively mobilized large segments of Iran’s

population against the reformers. Moreover, the potency, depth,

range, and reach of Iran’s security forces indicated a preponderance

of power over the opposition, an advantage not likely to diminish in

the short and medium terms.

Khamenei and Strategic Leadership

Effective Counter

Narrative

Isolation of protest

leaders

Crisis management

Engagement of

institutional leadership

Institutional Support: The Iranian

Revolutionary Guard Corps

Effective Organizational

Building and supporting

Subordination to regime

Operability and ideological

zeal

Defection: A sign of

strength

Strategic Security Operations

Responsiveness and

Continuity of operations

Interdicting Green

Movement senior

leadership

Information Dominance

Interdiction of mass

protests with mass

ground support

The infamous “plainclothes police”

The Basij Area control; counter

organization

Force multiplier

Ideological structure

Intelligence collection

Economic and logistic

asset

Mechanism of core

political survival

Defeat or What does defeat look like?

Degraded ability to lead, organize,

and mobilize the opposition

Failure to achieve considerable

foreign support

Inability to utilize the human and

geographical terrain

Inability to influence the

government

Inability to degrade, deny, or

defeat the security apparatus of the

regime

From Summary to Conclusion

The Islamic Republic of Iran possesses strong state and security

structures able to withstand severe opposition.

The Islamic Republic is likely to resist effectively similar political

challenges it faces in the near and medium terms.

The tactics of civil disobedience used by the opposition are likely

to prove ineffective against a regime which possesses strong

security capabilities operating effectively across broad

geographical areas of Iran and with significant mass support.

The regime’s ability to anticipate, organize, and posture against

“soft power” threats is one of its striking features or capabilities.

Thank You

CONTACT

INFORMATION

Martin Scott Catino, Ph.D.

Email:

mscottcat@yahoo.com