Assessing Ecological Assessing Ecological Economic Impacts of Economic Impacts of Landscape Change in Landscape Change in

Montana’s Flathead CountyMontana’s Flathead County

Tony PratoTony PratoProfessor of Ecological EconomicsProfessor of Ecological Economics

University of Missouri-ColumbiaUniversity of Missouri-ColumbiaCARES

Research TeamResearch Team

• Tony Prato (PI), Anthony Clark, Kris Dolle, Center for Agricultural, Resource and Environmental Systems, University of Missouri-Columbia (economics and geography)

• Ric Hauer, Flathead Lake Biological Station, The University of Montana (limnology)

• Dan Fagre and Gregg Pederson, USGS Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center (ecology)

• Ramanathan Sugumaran, Department of Geography, University of Northern Iowa (geography)

Project GoalsProject Goals

• Improve the capacity of stakeholders to make more informed decisions about future growth and development in Flathead County.

• Determine the effectiveness of alternative policies for alleviating potentially adverse economic and ecological impacts of future growth and development in Flathead County.

Project ObjectivesProject Objectives

Objective 1. Identify historical changes in land cover and their implications for wildlife habitat.

Objective 2. Develop an ecosystem landscape modeling system (ELMS) to evaluate how future growth and development are likely to affect land cover, wildlife habitat, and economic activity.

Objective 3. Create a Web-based spatial decision support system that facilitates stakeholder use of ELMS.

Study Area

Land Stats for Flathead County Land Stats for Flathead County

• 5,253 mi2; about the size of CT

• 87% of the county is public land

• 80% if the land area is classified as mountainous with slopes in excess of 45%

• Only 17% of the 556,177 acres of private land is zoned

• 2 million acres is forested

• 1 million acres is designated wilderness

Natural CapitalNatural Capital

Bob Marshall-Great Bear-Scapegoat Wilderness complex, Flathead National Forest, and the west side of Glacier National Park.

Glacier National Park is a Biosphere Reserve, and part of Waterton-Glacier International Peace Park, which is is a World Heritage Site and the world’s first international peace park.

Ecosystem contains highly diverse flora and fauna with 300 species of aquatic insects, 22 native and introduced species of fish, and nearly all of the large mammals of North America.

T & E SpeciesT & E Species

• Threatened– grizzly bear– bald eagle– Canada lynx– bull trout– water howellia– spalding catchfly

• Endangered– whooping crane– gray wolf

Public Significance of WildlifePublic Significance of Wildlife

The general public has a strong sense that too much development will destroy wildlife habitats.

The North Fork valley, on the west side of Glacier National Park, is considered one of the wildest valleys with the highest concentration of grizzly bear in the lower 48 states.

The Flathead River has 97.9 miles designated as wild, 40.7 miles as scenic, and 80.4 miles as recreational.

Flathead Lake is one of the 300 largest lakes in the world and the largest body of freshwater in the western United States.

EconomyEconomy

• Economy of Flathead County is directly linked to the region’s natural resources.

• Labor earnings in natural resource industries (i.e., lumber and wood products, agriculture, and mining) dropped from a high of $97 million in 1993 to $75 million in 2000.

• 40% of all personal income is from non-labor sources (i.e., transfer payments from investments, retirement accounts, and social security).

• Overall economy is strong and continues to grow due in part to a steady wave of new migrants and seasonal residents that are attracted to the area’s abundant natural resources.

• Per capita and median incomes are steadily rising, poverty is falling, and unemployment is at a 30-year low.

Flathead Valley and outlying areas are losing open spaces due to rapid growth and develop-ment.

Growth and Development

ChallengeChallenge

• Urban sprawl is the greatest contributor to the degradation of Flathead County’s natural resources.

• The challenge is to create a balance between land conversion and conservation of the natural environment.

MethodsMethods• Remote sensing• Land cover classification• Geographic information systems• Land use change analysis• Alternative futures analysis• Economic impact analysis• Landscape ecology• Wildlife habitat and wetland assessment• Surveys

Alternative Futures AnalysisAlternative Futures Analysis

• It is difficult for planners and stakeholders to foresee the potential ecological and economic consequences of their choices, policies, and plans because no one knows for sure what the future will bring.

• Since no single vision of the future is likely

to be accurate or superior to all others, it is useful to model a set of alternative futures for a region that encompasses a spectrum of possibilities.

• Alternative futures analysis allows stakeholders to assess the possible ecosystem and economic consequences of alternative assumptions about future growth and development.

Other ApplicationsOther Applications

• Monroe County, PA• Region of Camp Pendleton, CA• Willamette River Basin, Oregon• Southern Rocky Mountains, AL• Mojave Desert, CA• Iowa Corn Belt• Upper San Pedro River Basin, AZ and

Sonora (Mexico)

Design of Alternative FuturesDesign of Alternative Futures

• Three scenarios for growth rates in 11 industries for 2004 to 2014, and 2014 to 2024.

• Three land use policy scenarios for residential and commercial-industrial development, infrastructure expansion, and natural resource conservation.

Nine Alternative FuturesNine Alternative FuturesEconomic

growth rate

scenario

Land use policy scenario

Unrestrictive Moderately restrictive

Highly restrictive

High 1. High growth, unrestrictive land

use

2. High growth, moderately

restrictive land use

3. High growth, highly restrictive land use

Moderate 4. Moderate growth,

unrestrictive land use

5. Moderate growth, moderately

restrictive land use

6. Moderate growth, highly restrictive land use

Low 7. Low growth, unrestrictive land

use

8. Low growth, moderately land

use

9. Low growth, highly restrictive land use

Land ConversionLand Conversion

Residential and commercial/industrial development (RECID) model used to simulate the conversion of land from undeveloped uses to developed uses for the nine scenarios.

Agricultural,forested, and

other undeveloped uses

Residential and commercial/industrial

uses

Historical land cover

Land use policies

Future growth

analysis

Parcel suitability

RECID ModelRECID Model

Historical Land CoverHistorical Land Cover(populated areas of county)(populated areas of county)

1982 2002

Classification based on Landsat TM imagery.

88% accuracy

Industry Annual average percentage growth rate

High Moderate Low

Farming and Ranching 0.25 0.22 0.15

Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery 0.09 -0.14 -0.32

Mining 16 12 8

Construction 11 8 5

Manufacturing (including forest products)

7 5 3

Transportation, Communications and Public Utilities

4 2 0

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate 10 8 6

Services 11 9 7

Government 10 8 5

Wholesale Trade 9 5 3

Retail Trade 9 5 3

Future Growth Rates:Future Growth Rates: 2004-20142004-2014

Future Growth Rates: 2014-2024Future Growth Rates: 2014-2024 Industry Annual average percentage growth rate

High Moderate Low

Farming and Ranching 0.13 0.11 0.08

Agricultural, Forestry, and Fishery

-0.05 -0.07 -0.16

Mining 8 6 4

Construction 5.5 4 2.5

Manufacturing (including forest products)

3.5 2.5 1.5

Transportation, Communications and Public Utilities

2 1 0

Finance, Insurance, and Real Estate (FIRE)

5 4 3

Services 5.5 4.5 3.5

Government 5 4 2.5

Wholesale Trade 4.5 2.5 1.5

Retail Trade 4.5 2.5 1.5

IMPLAN AnalysisIMPLAN Analysis

• IMPLAN is used to estimate changes in employment in each of the 11 industries for the three growth scenarios from 2004 to 2014 and 2014 to 2024.

• Changes in total employment and other information used to estimate additional space required for commercial facilities and additional housing units required.

Sample of Input-Output for IMPLAN AnalysisUser Input for Low Growth Scenario

Model Output for Low Growth Scenario

2.5 persons per household 

Aggregate yearly growth rate for all industries = 4.81%

1.50 population to job ratio        

Total increase in jobs = 48,997

1.18 housing units to households ratio     

New resident labor force = 21,520

Average yearly growth rates by industry for low growth rates

New housing units required = 21,885

Land Use PoliciesLand Use Policies

• mix of new home types• densities for new home types• setbacks of new homes and commercial/industrial

developments from wetlands and water bodies• restrictions on new residential and commercial/industrial

development in other environmentally sensitive areas (wetlands, streams, rivers, lakes, ponds, and shallow aquifers)

• expansion of infrastructure (roads, sewer, power, water, etc.)

• percentage of remaining farmland and forestland in conservation easements

Parcel Parcel Suitability forCommercial/Industrial DevelopmentCommercial/Industrial Development

• Minimum acceptable distances from utilities, major highways, and population centers.

1. Maximum acceptable distance from utilities

2. Minimum acceptable distance from a major highway

3. Maximum acceptable distance from the edge of town

4. Minimum acceptable distances from eight amenities: mountains, lake, river, preserve, golf course, ski resort, park, and forest

5. Elevation from valley floor

6. Minimum acceptable distances from seven disamenities: industrial facility or park, mining facility, trailer park, busy highway, commercial center, railroad tracks, and airport

Parcel Suitability for Residential Development

• Suitability of parcels for residential and commercial-industrial development is scored and ranked using a multiple attribute evaluation (MAE) method.

• The MAE method combines the values of the attributes of parcels and the weights assigned to attributes by stakeholders.

Wildlife Habitat Assessment Wildlife Habitat Assessment

Two scales of analysis:

– Populated areas of the county, and

– Flathead River corridor between Columbia Falls and Kalispell.

County Habitat AssessmentCounty Habitat Assessment

The assessment considers:

• Potential habitat for individual species

• Potential habitat for multiple species

Potential Habitat for Potential Habitat for Individual SpeciesIndividual Species

Step 1. Divide the landscape into polygons and evaluate habitat potential (HP) for species j in time period t using the following area-weighted potential habitat score:

HPjt = ΣiaiSijt,

ai = area of polygon i,Σiai = total area covered by all polygons, and Sijt = potential habitat score for polygon i and

species j in time period t calculated by taking the geometric mean of habitat suitability attributes for that species (e.g., elevation, slope, land cover).

Alternative futures affect Sijt.

n

1i

Step 2. Divide the HPjt scores for an alternative future into potential habitat suitability classes, and map (using GIS) changes in classes over the three time periods (2002, 2014, and 2024).

Deuling et al. (2000) Early winter habitat for woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou) near Revelstoke, British Columbia

Step 3. Use APACK to calculate landscape metrics for the three highest potential habitat suitability classes for Hjt (e.g., patch number, size, and density).

Step 4. Combine changes in the landscape metrics with habitat suitability-landscape pattern associations for the species to determine changes over time in potential habitat for that species.

Potential Habitat forPotential Habitat forMultiple SpeciesMultiple Species

Index-based multispecies conservation value for polygon i in time period t is:

MCV(P)it = Σj Gj HP*ijt/Σj Gj

Gj = an endangerment or threat index value for species j, and

HP*ijt = the standardized (to the [0, 1] interval) value of HPijt = ai Sijt.

Area-weighted potential, multiple species habitat scores at time t:

MCV(P)t = Σiai MCV(P)it

Flathead RiverFlathead RiverAssessmentAssessment

The hydrogeomorphic (HGM) approach to functional assessment for the Northern Rocky Mountains is used to evaluate how changes over time in landscape fragmentation influence the functioning of wetlands in the river corridor.

Columbia Falls

Kalispell

Flathead River

Data from hyperspectral and multispectral images used in the HGM approach.

This hyperspectral image of the Flathead River corridor is composed of 21 separate flightline images that have been color balanced. Each image consists of 20 bands with wavelengths of 420-950 nm.

Area in next slide

Each multispectral image is composed of three bands that have a resolution of between 5 and 10 cm.

Vegetation ClassificationVegetation Classification

Economic Impact AssessmentEconomic Impact Assessment• IMPLAN used to estimate the total value of

goods and services produced, and total employment in 2014 and 2024 for the three growth scenarios.

• Estimated employment and other information used to estimate additional housing units, and space requirements for commercial-industrial developments in 2014 and 2024.

User Input for Low Growth Scenario

Model Output for Low Growth Scenario

2.5 persons per household  Aggregate yearly growth rate for all industries = 4.81%

1.50 population to job ratio        

Total increase in jobs = 48,997

1.18 housing units to households ratio     

New resident labor force = 21,520

Average yearly growth rates by industry for low growth rates

New housing units required = 21,885

Sample Input and Output for Economic Model

Spatial Decision Support SystemSpatial Decision Support System

• An SDSS for natural resource management is a computer-based tool that integrates decision, ecological, and GIS analysis and mapping.

• The SDSS for ELMS will enhance the capacity of decision makers to make more informed ecological economic assessments and decisions.

• In particular, the SDSS will allow stakeholders to interactively map the study area, and use ELMS to simulate economic and wildlife habitat impacts of alternative futures.

Interactive MappingInteractive Mapping

Click on desired layers

Area of this image

Zooming In FeatureZooming In Feature

Parcel Data: Interactive QueryParcel Data: Interactive Query

http://cares.missouri.edu/montana/

http://cares.missouri.edu/montana/

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