Ask Measure Learn

by Lutz Finger

Last update: March, 2014

The philosophy of the day is .

data-ism —DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)

We focus too much on technology

Google Search on the term “Big Data”

ASK the right Questions.

MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.

Take Actions and LEARN from them.

Ask the right

Question

AS

K

THE HARDEST PART

AS

K

Let’s do “Social Media”

ASK

Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.

ASK

Please find an “INFLUENCER”

• Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)• Influentials (Merton 1968)• Law of the Few (Gladwell

2000)

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

A few person decide what we do…

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

REALLY?

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

Dear Marketers, There is no influencer.

It’s a myth.

ASK

Reality 50% is Homophily

Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1

• 4 years• 1001 Students on Facebook• traditional Self-reported Data• How did taste Spread

Influence is often overestimated. It needs:• Reach

• Readiness• Topic Dependence

ASK

Aja Dior M.? AP News?

ASK

Aja Dior M.omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :(

45 min

Aja Dior M.? AP News?

ASK

I want to create “REACH”

… in order to “SELL”

ASK

Measure the rightData

What is RIGHT?

MEA

SU

RE

Source: WIkipedia

even if it is not

Big Data

MEA

SU

RE

More Data

More Insights

does not equal

MEA

SU

RE

Data ELT and Aggregation

Petabyte Gigabyte BitTerabyte1 2 3 4

We want small data….

Yesor

No

MEA

SU

RE

Calculating Reach via Network Data

1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based on Betweenness .”

MEA

SU

RE

“REACH” creates awareness

“SELL”needs purchase intend

MEA

SU

RE

Correlations are important

MEA

SU

RE

What is your behavior?

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEA

SU

RE

The issue with the Correlation / Causation M

EA

SU

RE

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

Sometimes data is not easy to get.

MEA

SU

RE

Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEA

SU

RE

It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’

New York Weather in April 2013

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEA

SU

RE

30

ME

AS

UR

E

Source: Jeffrey Breen

MEA

SU

RE

What is RIGHT?

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEA

SU

RE

Rightand learn from them.

Actions

Information vs. Action…

0 Connections59%

1 Connection28%

2 Connections5%

4 Connections3%

LEA

RN

Information vs. Action…

0 Connections59%

1 Connection28%

2 Connections5%

4 Connections3%

LEA

RN

Three Types of actionable Insights

Benchmark Predictions

Recommendations &Filter

LEA

RN

BENCHMARK

LEA

RN

Competitive Benchmark

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEA

RN

RECOMMEND & FILTER

LEA

RN

LinkedIn Recommendation Products

People You May Know

Groups You May Like

Ads You Be Interested in

Companies you May Want to Follow

Puls

Similar Profiles

LEA

RN

Filter

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEA

RN

PREDICTIONS

LEA

RN

Predicting the OSCAR 2013 LEA

RN

Predicting the OSCAR LEA

RN

Predicting the OSCAR

Source: Farsite

Possible other Features:

CROWDSOURCED:• Box Office Results• Movie Goer Reviews• Critics

OTHER “Hard Facts”• Genre• Payment of Actors• Etc.

LEA

RN

Predicting Box Office

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEA

RN

Predictions are not easy, especially if they are about the

Future.

LEA

RN

Which Model to use

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEA

RN

Which Model to use

Google’s Prediction API

LEA

RN

Many more examples…

Benchmark Recommendation & Filter Predict

LEA

RN

Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier

LEA

RN

UpdateTraining

LEA

RN

Summary

ASK the right Questions.

MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data.

Take Actions and LEARN from them.

Thanks

LutzFinger.com