Aquecimento global e desenvolvimento sustentável

Philip M. FearnsidepInstituto Nacional de Pesquisas da Amazônia – INPA

http://philip.inpa.gov.br2nd International Workshop: Advances in Cleaner Production - Key elements for a sustainable world: material, energy and climate change, 22 de maio de 2009, Universidade Paulista, São Paulo.

Siple coreSiple core

O balanço global de energia hojeO balanço global de energia hoje

Temp model and dataTemp model and data

Figure SPM 4Figure SPM.4

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

Goldilocks and the three bears

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

Changes in vegetation biomassbetween the present day and the 2080s

–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8–8 –5 –3 –1 1 3 5 8kgC/m2kgC/m2

[Hadley Centre, 2000]

Cândido et al., 2007

IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. Chapter 3

IPCC 2007 AR-4, WG-I, p. 779

Cox et al. 2004

Photo by R.I. Barbosa

Cox et al. 2004

Stainforth,2005

ADAPTED FROM HEGERL ET AL., NATURE (2006)

Betts et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Huntingford et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

Length of dry season

Legend:Number of dry months

Non TF areas

0 - 1

1 - 2

2 - 3

3 - 4

4 - 5

5 +

500

Kilometersi 500

KilometersiDerived from the New et al 2001 dataset

Impact of El Nino

Legend:Multivariate ENSO index

-0.4 - -0.3

0 3 0 2-0.3 - -0.2

-0.2 - -0.1

-0.1 - 0

Non TF areas

0 - 0.2

550i 500

KilometersiKilometersi Kilometersi

Malhi and Wright 2004 Spatial patterns and recent trends in the climate of tropical forestregions. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society

The model suggests ggthat 2005 was an approximately 1-in-20-approximately 1 in 20yr event but willyr event, but will become a 1-in-2-yrbecome a 1 in 2 yr event by 2025 and a 9-event by 2025 and a 9-in 10 yr event by 2060in-10-yr event by 2060.

10km10km

Fotos: Richard Bierregaard

Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)Damage and mortality of trees (%/yr)

4< 0.001

3.14

4.5

3

3.5

/ano

)

3

3.5

4 Y = 3.64 - 0.75 log XR=0.51, P=0.0002

/yea

r)

2

2.5 1.6

nos

(%/

2

2.5

3

ality

(%/

1

1.5

2

xa d

e da

1.5

2

Mor

ta

0

0.5

1

Tax

0.5

1

100 10000

< 300 m > 300 m Distance to edge (m)

Nascimento and Laurance, 2004 Ecol. Appl.;

Experimentos de exclusão de chuvas – simulando el niños de longa duração – Projetos LBA/ESECAFLOR e LBA/SECA FLORESTA

Painéis Suportes

Calhas Drenos

Redução de 50-60% da precipitaçãop p ç

Foley et al. 2007 Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment

IPCC, 2007 AR4 WG1 Ch. 10 p. 775

Cox et al. 2004 Theoretical and Applied Climatology

IPCC AR4 WG2 2007. SPM

A ll t l 2002Cli ti ChArnell et al. 2002Climatic Change

Meinhausen, 2005

IPCC, 2007 (AR-4 WG1 SPM)

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