Post on 23-May-2020
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Post-Election Research: Persuadable and Drop-off Voters
April 2017
Research findings prepared for Priorities USAby Global Strategy Group & Garin Hart Yang
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Focus Groups
GSG and GHY conducted two focusgroups in Oak Creek, Wisconsin onJanuary 26th, two in Southfield,Michigan on January 28th, and two inTampa, Florida on January 29th, 2017.
In each set of groups, one group wasconducted with Obama-Trump votersand one with turnout targets(millennials in WI & FL and AfricanAmerican voters in MI who voted forObama but did not vote in 2016).
Methodology
Obama- Trump Survey
GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 801registered voters who voted for DonaldTrump in 2016 and Barack Obama in2012 from January 31st to February 4th,2017.
Drop-off Voter Survey
GSG and GHY conducted a survey of 803registered voters nationwide fromMarch 31st to April 5th, 2017,conducting interviews with 401midterm drop-off voters (voted forClinton in 2016 but did not vote in 2014)and 402 presidential drop-off voters(voted for Obama in 2012 but did notvote in 2016).
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Understanding Drop-off and Persuadable Voters
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Key Findings: Persuadable and Drop-off voters
A key commonality between turnout voters and Obama-Trump voters is that theyare struggling economically.
• Clinton and Democrats’ economic message did not break through to drop-off orObama-Trump voters, even though drop-off voters are decidedly anti-Trump.
• Drop-off voters already believe that Trump’s policies will benefit the wealthy overother groups, but there is more work to be done to convince Obama-Trump voters thatthis is the case.
• Ensuring corporations pay their fair share of taxes, modernizing infrastructure, andincreasing the development of renewable energy are seen as economically beneficialby both groups.
Health care is a critical motivator for both Democratic drop-off voters andpersuadable Trump voters.
• Both groups identify cuts to Medicare, Medicaid, and other healthcare programs aspolicies that would have a very bad effect on them personally.
• Among drop-off voters, items related to health care (increasing costs for seniors,cutting important programs, and millions of Americans losing coverage) are frequentlyrated as very major concerns.
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How satisfied are you with the state of the US economy today?
Income Relative to Cost of Living
Both drop-off and Obama-Trump voters feel their income is falling behind the cost of living and few are very satisfied with the state of the economy
Income going up faster than the cost of living
Income falling behind the cost of living
8
19
49
31
43
50
Drop-off Voters
Obama-Trump Voters
Income staying about even with the cost of living/DK
Very satisfied
10
16
47
37
25
34
15
13
Drop-off Voters
Obama-Trump Voters
Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfiedDK/Refused
More presidential drop-off voters feel their income is falling behind the cost of living (46%), onpar with Obama-Trump voters (50%).
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Obama-Trump Voters In Depth
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Which of the following was more important to you in deciding to vote for Donald Trump?
Would you say that your vote for president was more a vote FOR Donald Trump, more a vote against Clinton, or both equally?
His background as a businessman and the fact that he is not a typical politician
His stand on policies and issues that matter to you
393443
37
38
37
242820
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
Obama-Trump voters were drawn to Trump more on his business persona than on his issue stands – especially ambivalent Trump backers
Both equally
More a vote FOR Trump More a vote AGAINST CLINTON
487521
22
17
26
308
53
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
Both equally
8
57
55
50
50
48
46
45
44
40
38
37
36
35
32
29
28
30
34
30
37
35
35
35
30
39
39
37
38
35
27
15
15
16
20
15
19
20
21
30
23
24
27
27
33
44
Protecting Social Security for senior citizens
Protecting Medicare for senior citizens
Creating good paying jobs for American workers
Cleaning up corruption in gov't
Cracking down on the outsourcing of American jobs
Making sure that wealthy pay their fair share of taxes
Keeping Wall Street in check
Deporting immigrants who are in the country illegally
Cracking down on unfair foreign trade
Reducing the influence of special interests/lobbyists
Modernizing America's infrastructure
Maintaining environmental protections
Building a wall along the US border with Mexico
Trump supporters prioritize Social Security, Medicare, and jobs –but only strong supporters prioritize immigration and trade
Priorities for the President and Congress
Extremely important Not important
Making sure that all Americans have access to affordable health insurance
Making sure that women are treated fairly in the workplace
StronglySupp.
Mixed Feelings
61 54
58 52
50 50
55 45
52 44
53 39
45 45
44 43
50 31
46 30
40 34
36 37
41 29
34 29
43 15
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Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?
Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?
Persuadable voters believe Trump will help the middle class over the wealthy, but don’t feel the same about Congressional Republicans
424738
1614
18
2320
25
191919
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
The wealthy
402950
3138
25
2629
24
34
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?
The poor211626
4448
40
333333
3Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
All groups equally The middle class
The wealthy The poorAll groups equally The middle class
The wealthy The poorAll groups equally The middle class
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Do you have confidence, or doubts, that Donald Trump will do a good job as president?
Have the things you have seen, read, or heard recently made you feel more confident, or less confident, that Donald Trump will do a good job?
Confidence Doubts
62
89
35
29
9
49
9
16
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
As we start to move voters away from Trump, we have a solid base of Obama-Trump voters to target in our efforts
Somewhere in between
MORE Confident LESS Confident
65
85
45
23
13
34
12
21
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
No Difference
11
Weak supporters in particular seek Congressional leadership that will act as a check against Donald Trump
When it comes to electing people to Congress, would you prefer to elect?
Check and balance on Trump Work with Trump
36
19
53
64
81
47
Overall
Strongly supported DJT
Mixed feelings about DJT
12
51
41
38
38
38
38
38
35
33
31
22
27
21
26
22
24
22
21
19
21
27
32
41
36
40
38
40
44
48
48
Cutting benefits, driving up consumer costs, and repealing Obamacare without replacing it are especially concerning to cautious supporters
Trump Concerns
Concerns me Does not concern meJust someStrongly
Supp.Mixed
FeelingsNon-
College College
46 55 50 52
35 48 39 47
31 46 37 40
31 44 39 35
30 47 37 44
32 45 38 39
32 45 36 43
28 43 34 38
29 37 32 37
28 34 28 39
He will make too many cuts to important programs that seniors and working people
depend on, like Medicare/MedicaidThe large tax on imports he has proposed will raise the costs of things that American
consumers buy
He will repeal Obamacare and not come up with a plan to replace it
His administration is full of corporateexecutives who will put their interests
ahead of working people
He will not show the temperament, judgement, and self-control required…
He will get the US involved in foreign wars
His policies will go too far in favoring the wealthy over working people
He will reduce America’s credibility around the world by saying things that aren’t true…
He will go too far in rolling back access to legal abortion and affordable
comprehensive healthcare for women
He will be too close to Putin and won’t stand up to Putin…
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To win back cautious Trump supporters, we should tie Trump to GOP policiesthat put the interests of the wealthy/businesses before the middle class andprograms they rely on such as Medicare and Social Security
Which one or two of the following outcomes from Trump’s term as president would bother you the most?
49
37
33
18
13
5
48
31
32
16
18
8
51
43
33
20
8
2
If he didn’t “save Medicare and Social Security” and instead cut benefits for those programs.
If he didn’t “give the power back to the people” and instead put the interests of wealthy elites
and big businesses first.
If he didn’t “put American jobs first” and instead made it easier for big businesses to outsource
jobs.
If he didn’t “drain the swamp” and instead put lobbyists, campaign donors, and special interests
in charge of his administration.
If he didn’t “make Mexico pay” for the border wall between the United States and Mexico, and
instead taxpayers ended up footing the bill.
None of these would bother me
OverallStrongly Supported DJTMixed Feelings about DJT
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Drop-off Voters In Depth
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Democratic-leaning drop-off voters have favorable opinions of their party and are very unfavorable to Trump and the GOP
Favorability of the Political Parties
737570
547
879
18
17
20
18
15
19
8
7
9
98
10
778174
848682
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Favorable Unfavorable
The Republican
Party
The Democratic
Party
Neutral/DK
29% very favorable
55% very unfavorable
28% very favorable
47% very unfavorable
75% very unfavorable
73% very unfavorable
Donald Trump
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Timing of Decision to Not Vote & Reason for Not Voting (Presidential Drop-off Voters)
Many voters who decided not to vote last minute offered excuses for their behavior, while those who decided not to vote in advance felt ambivalent or negative toward both candidates
Decided not to vote in advance of Election Day
Decided not to vote at the last minute
36 25 39
Some of both
“I did not like either candidate”
“I think both candidates were not a good fit forpresident”
“I felt everyone was voting the same way I wasin my area so I felt it didn’t matter”
“I voted for Bernie Sanders in the primary; Icouldn’t support Clinton for the generalelection”
“It makes no difference”
“Neither candidate was trustworthy”
“I couldn’t get off work in time to vote”
“I didn’t receive my absentee ballot”
“Tired of voting for the lesser of two evils”
“I wanted more time to think about Trump and Clinton”
“I got sick and could not vote”
“The polls were too busy and I could not vote”
“I was having trouble walking and I heard that the lines were long”
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Impact of Trump Presidency
Impact of 2018 Election
Drop-off voters – including midterm drop-off voters – say the 2018 elections will have a bigger impact on their lives than Trump’s election in 2016
Has had a big impact
32
34
31
27
30
25
4
4
4
37
33
41
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Has had a small impact Has had no impactNot sure
Will have a big impact
46
45
46
32
35
29
9
9
10
13
10
15
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Will have a small impact Will have no impactNot sure
18
Impact of 2018 Election
Groups that feel the impact of the 2016 election less strongly – men, millennial voters, and African American voters – also recognize what is at stake in 2018
Will have a big impact
46
4149
53474532
494544
32
3729
3131
3334
3029
39
9
5
12
8
10
8
13
9
8
11
13
1710
8121421
1218
6
Overall
Men
Women
18-34
35-49
60-64
65+
White
African American
Hispanic
Will have a small impact Will have no impactNot sure2016
Big Impact Gap
32 +14
24 +17
38 +11
32 +21
42 +5
30 +15
22 +10
34 +15
26 +19
37 +7
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Motivation/Enthusiasm about Voting
Generic Ballot for Congress
Midterm drop-offs are slightly more motivated and enthusiastic about voting than presidential drop-offs, though both favor Democrats in a generic ballot for Congress
Extremely (9-10)/Somewhat (6-8) motivated
58
61
56
22
23
22
2
1
2
18
15
20
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Neutral/Not motivated (0-5)DK/Refused
Democratic candidate
80
82
79
7
8
6
13
10
14
Overall
Midterm
Presidential
Lean Democratic candidate RepublicanUndecided/Refused
20
Do you think Congressional Democrats’ economic policies will favor….?
Do you think Congressional Republicans’ economic policies will favor….?
Unlike Obama-Trump voters, drop-off voters overwhelmingly believe that Trump and Republicans’ policies favor the wealthy over other groups
The wealthy
Do you think Donald Trump’s economic policies will favor….?
The poor
92
21
5
44 33
Drop-off voters
Obama-Trump voters
All groups equally/DK The middle class
The wealthy The poorAll groups equally/DK The middle class
The wealthy The poorAll groups equally/DK The middle class
90
40
4
31
4
26
Drop-off voters
Obama-Trump voters
11
42
38
16
39
23
12
19
Drop-off voters
Obama-Trump voters
21
6967646260575757535353454438343426
1822
1717
1221
1825
2024
121824
3331
2734
9
7
16
17
25
20
18
12
24
19
22
24
22
23
25
27
25
76
131310
6101215
Making sure corporations pay their fair share of taxes
Repairing and modernizing our country's infrastructure
Increasing the development of renewable energy
Strengthening wage laws
Cutting interest rates for federal student loans
Providing training, apprentice programs for workers
Raising taxes on millionaires/wealthiest Americans
Reducing taxes on middle class/working families
Offering paid leave/tax credits for child care
Offering free tuition at public colleges/universities
Cracking down on employers not paying workers in full
Closing corporate and Wall Street tax loopholes
Creating a national health plan/single-payer plan
Reducing taxes on small businesses
Leaving the Affordable Care Act in place as is
Establishing path to citizenship for undocumented
Re-negotiating our trade deals with other countries
Making sure corporations pay their fair share and strengthening infrastructure, wage laws, and renewable energy are seen as economically beneficial
Economic Policy Effects
Very/Somewhat good for people like you
Bad for peoplelike you
Wouldn’t havemuch effect/DK
Drop-off Overall
Obama-Trump Gap
87 71 +16
89 72 +17
81 64 +17
79 61 +18
71
79 61 +18
75 61 +14
82 81 +1
73 47 +26
76
64
63
68
71 63 +8
66
61
59 67 -8
Net Good
22
15
23
15
23
24
20
40
10
16
26
26
30
38
20
14
15
14
19
21
22
26
61
46
45
32
25
20
14
Cutting spending on Medicare/Medicaid
Reducing regulations on businesses
Turning Medicare into a voucher system
Allowing construction of more oil/gas pipelines
Lowering taxes on American corporations
Stopping illegal immigration/deporting immigrants
Increasing taxes on foreign goods
Cutting spending on Medicare and Medicaid, reducing regulations on businesses, and turning Medicare into a voucher system are seen as the least beneficial economic policies
Economic Policy Effects
Good for people like you
Very/Somewhat bad for people like you
Wouldn’t have much effect/DK
Drop-off Overall
Obama-Trump Gap
75 56 +19
61 31 +30
59 42 +17
51
45 21 +24
42 9 +33
40 19 +21
Net Bad
23
Drop-off voters are deeply unfavorable to Donald Trump and volunteerhis presidency as the most important issue facing the country today
Most Important issue Facing the Country Today (OPEN END)
17
16
12
9
6
5
6
5
4
1
2
14
14
10
7
5
5
3
3
3
5
3
Donald Trump
Health care
Economy/jobs
Climate/environment
Foreign policy/relations/Russia
Race issues/racism
Income inequality/poverty/homelessness
Immigration
Divided nation
Education/Schools
Terrorism/National security
MidtermPresidential
“The environment which I see as a national securityissue. Climate refugees are going to create a crisis.”
– Presidential drop-off voter
"Donald Trump's lack of qualifications and lack ofintegrity. People in Congress who are supportinghim and not exercising any oversight.“
– Presidential drop-off voter
“Health insurance is the biggest problem. We needmore good people in congress.”
– Midterm drop-off voter
24
Of Trump’s main issue positions, Trump’s health care policies arethe most concerning to drop-off voters
Which two, if any, are the most concerning to you personally about Donald Trump and his administration?
52
44
39
30
24
54
41
33
31
26
His positions on health care
His positions on immigration
His positions on taxes and the budget
Midterm
Presidential
His positions on women's rights,abortion, and gender issues
49% among women58% among women under 5052% among college-educated white men50% college-educated white women
His positions on foreign policy and terrorism
57% among voters 50+57% among non-college voters61% among AA voters
49% among Hispanic voters43% among millennials
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Reaching Persuasion & Turnout Targets
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Four Key Points on How to Reach Target Voters
1. Social Media feeds, especially Facebook, came up as a critical source ofnews across all focus groups, persuasion and turnout.
2. Strong Obama-Trump voters consume a greater amount of partisan newsthan soft Obama-Trump voters.• 55% of strong supporters are regular talk radio listeners (vs. 36% of soft supporters)• 43% of strong supporters list Fox News as a key sources (vs. 34% of soft supporters)
3. Strong Obama-Trump voters are also much more “tuned in” than softsupporters and turnout targets• 36% of strong supporters follow DC news very closely vs. 19% of soft supporters
4. Obama-Trump voters were more skeptical than average focus grouprespondents and didn’t open up until we told them they were amongfellow Trump voters.