Post on 08-Jan-2017
High Fertility and African
Migration to the European Union
Anastasia Gage, PhD
Tulane University
Objectives
• Summarize trends in African migration to EU
• Present fertility trends in major countries of origin, focusing on education differentials
• Discuss international migration theory and role of fertility as a push factor
• Examine evidence of how fertility affects potential for/persistence of African migration to EU
• Present possible program and policy implications
Background
• Europe hosted 76.1 million international migrants in 2015, a considerable increase from 49.2 million in 1990
• In 2014, more than 625,000 asylum applications recorded in the EU-28
• Number of African asylum applicants rose by more than 50,000 in the EU-28 between 2013 and 2014
• In 2014, 28 percent of all asylum applicants in EU-28 were Africans (from 53 countries)
• Eritreans represented 21 percent of all African asylum applicants in the EU-28 in 2014, an increase from 12 percent in 2013.
Asylum Applicants to the European Union by Citizenship and
Year: Selected African Countries, 2008-2014
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Nu
mb
er
of
Ap
pli
can
ts
Trends in Asylum Applications to the EU
CD
ER
SO
GM
ML
NG
SN
GN
Source: Eurostat Database
Map of World Conflicts in 2014
Source: Pettersson and Wallensteen, 2015.
Top 10 Countries of Origin of African Asylum
Applicants to the EU
2010
1,490
1,500
2,305
2,665
3,585
4,540
4,895
5,525
6,805
14,360
Cameroon
Cote d'Ivoire
Sudan
Zimbabwe
Algeria
Eritrea
Guinea
DR Congo
Nigeria
Somalia
2014
6,245
6,375
6,435
6,715
7,360
11,530
12,945
16,490
20,065
36,945
Sudan
Guinea
Senegal
Algeria
DR Congo
The Gambia
Mali
Somalia
Nigeria
Eritrea
Source: Eurostat Database
There are large variations in fertility levels across
Africa
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1970-75 1990-95 2005-2010 2010-2015 2025-2030
Tota
l Fe
rtil
ity
Ra
te
Trends in the Total Fertility Rate, UN Projections
Africa
Eastern Africa
Middle Africa
Northern Africa
Southern Africa
Western Africa
Europe
Source: United Nations, 2014
Fertility decline is stalling in African countries with the largest number
of asylum applicants to the European Union in 2014
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Around 1970 1985 1995 2005 2015
Tota
l Fe
rtil
ity
Ra
te
Trends in the Total Fertility Rate
CD
ER
GM
ML
NG
SN
SO
GN
Source: DHS and UNDP_WFD_2012_ASFR
Women with more than secondary education tend to
have fertility rates that are closer to replacement levels
6.9
5.4
3.6
2.4
5.5
4.2
3.12.6
None Primary Secondary Higher
Eritrea
1995 2002
Source: DHS
Trends in the Total Fertility Rate by Women’s
Educational Level
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1987 1995-96 2001 2006 2012-13
MALI
Total None Primary Secondary Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Trends in the Total Fertility Rate by Women’s
Educational Level
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1999 2003 2008 2010 2013
NIGERIA
Total None Primary Secondary Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Trends in the Total Fertility Rate by Women’s
Educational Level
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1986 1992-93 1997 2005 2006 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014
SENEGAL
Total None Primary Secondary Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Total Fertility Rate:
Uneducated Women vs Higher Educated Women
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1987 1995-96 2001 2006 2012-13
MALI
TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-HigherSource: STATCOMPILER
Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Total Fertility Rate:
Uneducated Women vs Higher Educated Women
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1999 2003 2008 2013
NIGERIA
TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Total Fertility Rate:
Uneducated Women vs Higher Educated Women
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1986 1992-93 1997 2005 2010-11 2014
SENEGAL
TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Total Fertility Rate and Wanted Total Fertility Rate:
Uneducated Women vs Higher Educated Women
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1999 2005 2012
GUINEA
TFR-None WTFR-None TFR-Higher WTFR-Higher
Source: STATCOMPILER
Total Fertility Rates and Contraceptive Prevalence Rates
(Most Recent Survey), Sub-Saharan Africa
y = -0.0211x + 5.4463
R² = 0.0566
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Tota
l Fe
rtil
ity
Ra
te
Contraceptive Prevalence %
Source: StatCompiler http://beta.statcompiler.com; accessed January 30, 2016
“Are the forces that drive Africans to migrate
across international borders the same as
those that drove poor Europeans to seek a
better life in the New World a century ago?
Are these forces likely to intensify or weaken
in the future? Or, do Africans move across
borders mainly in response to political
upheaval and civil war?” (Hatton and
Williamson, 2003, p. 466)
What is the Role of Fertility as a Driver
of African Migration to the EU?
International Migration Theory
• Neoclassical economic theory– Wage differentials between sending and receiving regions
• Dual labor market– International labor migrations stems from labor demands in the
labor-intensive segments of industrialized (receiving) countries; demand for cheap migrant labor in informal sectors
• New economics of labor migration– International migration of a family member is a strategy for
reducing risk of insufficient household income
• Relative deprivation theory– Incentive to migrate is higher in countries that experience
greater economic inequality
International Migration Theory Contd.
• World systems theory– Incentive to migrate stems from lagging living conditions and
economic stagnation in countries of origin resulting from trade between countries with weaker economies and countries with more advanced economies
• Network theory– Interpersonal linkages between migrant networks in destination
countries and potential migrants in origin countries
• Institutional theory– Large inflow of international migrants induces organizations
(legal or illegal) to provide for transport, labor contracts, etc. and explain the course of international migration flows over time
International Migration Theory:
Demographic Explanations
• Push effects of sustained high levels of fertility accompanied by declining mortality
– Increased competition for land and employment push people to migrate
– Young age structure – young people more likely to move
– Environmental hypothesis: Rising agrarian population density, climate change, and environmental degradation stimulate outmigration from rural areas then emigration
– Youth bulge hypothesis: Large number of young people, concentrated in urban areas; high pressure on employment, education, social services lead to political instability which stimulates migration
International Migration Theory:
Demographic Explanations
• Pull effects of low fertility rates in industrialized countries
– Shortages that increase employers’ interests in imported workers
• Role of governments
– Mass emigrations due to war, violence, persecution, human rights abuse, mass starvation, and/or ethnic tensions
– Policies in origin countries and destination countries
Evidence of High Fertility as Push Factor?
• There are few African countries in which more than 10 percent of the population has emigrated
• Insights from Hatton and Williamson (2003):
• European emigration in late 19th Century
– Real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions
– Population growth (“demographic booms”) in low-wage sending regions
• African emigration to Europe in 21st century
– Real wage gaps between sending and receiving regions
– Population growth in low-wage sending regions
Total Fertility Rate Around 1985 and Emigrant Stock
as a Percentage of the Population in 2013, Africa
y = -0.4072x + 8.7283
R² = 0.0057
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0 2 4 6 8 10
Em
igra
tio
n S
tock
as
% o
f P
op
ula
tio
n
Total Fertility Rate
Source: UNDP_WFD_2012_ASFR; Migration and Remittances Factbook 2016
Summary
• Fertility decline slowed down in sub-Saharan Africa in recent decades and lagging in West and Middle Africa
• Educated African women tend to have fewer children than their uneducated counterparts
• Some African fertility is unwanted but contraceptive use is low
• Theoretical explanations useful but not convincing about high fertility as predominant explanation for African migration to the EU
• Acknowledged that:– High fertility creates rapid population growth; rapid growth of cohort of
potential migrants
– Rapid population growth constrains resources for economic development and growth and family welfare, and triggers economic migration, political instability ,and refugee flows.
– Agree with Hatton and Williamson’s conclusion: “If the income gap between Africa and the OECD countries continues to increase then this will add further fuel to out-of-Africa emigration pressure which may continue long after those driven by demographic forces have ceased” (p.483)
Education, Fertility, and International Migration
Net
international
migration
Source: Adapted from Crespo Cuaresma et al., 2014
Enabling factors:
• Good governance
• Good health
Program and Policy Implications
• Improve the quantity and quality of schooling
for girls
• Expand access to family planning services
• Generate employment opportunities and
bring job market into 21st century
• Cannot be done without good governance
References
• Crespo Cuaresman, J., Lutz, W., & Sanderson, W. C. (2014). Is the demographic dividend an education dividend?
Demography, 51:299–315. DOI 10.1007/s13524-013-0245-x.
• Hatton, T. J., & Williamson, J. G. (2003). Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa. The Scandinavian
Journal of Economics, 105(3): 465–486. DOI: 10.1111/1467-9442.t01-2-00008.
• De Haas, H. (2008). The Myth of Invasion: The Inconvenient Realities of African Migration to Europe. Third World Quarterly, .
29 (7): 1305-1322.
• Jennissen, R. (2007). Causality Chains in the International Migration Systems Approach. Population Research and Policy
Review, 26(4): 411-436.
• Pettersson, T., & Wallensteen, P. (2015). Armed Conflicts, 1946-2014. Journal of Peace Research 52(4): 536-55. doi:
10.1177/0022343315595927.
• Teitelbaum, M. S. (2005). Intra- and inter-national balances and migration. Genus, Vol. 61, No. 3/4: 193-212.
• United Nations (2014). World Fertility Patterns 2013. New York: United Nations.
http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/pdf/fertility/world-fertility-patterns-2013.pdf
• United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2015). Trends in International Migrant
Stock: Migrants by Destination and Origin (United Nations database, POP/DB/MIG/Stock/Rev.2015).