Analysis of the Iridium 33-Cosmos 2251 Collision

T.S. Kelso

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 2 of 26

Overview

• Introduction

• Anatomy of a Collision

• Tracking a Collision

• Impact on the Space Environment

• Conclusions

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 3 of 26

Introduction

• What: Collision of Iridium 33 & Cosmos 2251

• When: 2009 Feb 10 @ 1656 UTC

• Where: 72.505 N, 97.873 E, 788.6 km altitude– Northern Siberia

• Results (as of 2009 Aug 25):– 419 pieces of Iridium 33 debris (16 decayed)– 998 pieces of Cosmos 2251 debris (33 decayed)

Anatomy of a Collision

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 5 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 6 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 7 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 8 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 9 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 10 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 11 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 12 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 13 of 26

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 14 of 26

Kevin Fetter Video: Iridium 33 & 28

Tracking a Collision

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 16 of 26

SOCRATES Min Range

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 17 of 26

SOCRATES Rank (All)

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 18 of 26

SOCRATES Rank (Top 200)

Impact on the Space Environment

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 20 of 26

Debris Characteristics

Satellite Number

ofPieces

Total Volume(m3)

Dry Mass(kg)

Inclination(deg)

Iridium 33 419 3.388 556 86

Cosmos 2251 998 7.841 900 74

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 21 of 26

Lifetime Analysis: Iridium 33

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 22 of 26

Lifetime Analysis: Cosmos 2251

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 23 of 26

Lifetime Analysis: Iridium 33

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 24 of 26

Lifetime Analysis: Cosmos 2251

10th Advanced Maui Optical and Space Surveillance Technologies ConferencePg 26 of 26

Conclusions

• Collision has significant long-term adverse effects

• International community must continue to work to mitigate debris generation

• Can mitigate risk by collaboratively sharing SSA– SOCRATES-GEO: 11 operators, 150 satellites– SOCRATES-LEO: 6 operators, 106 satellites– Need best available SSA from SSN

• Need full examination of this event to help chart the way ahead

Questions?