Post on 25-Feb-2016
description
America’s Energy Challenges
Steven E. KooninUnder Secretary for Science US Department of Energy June 2011
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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Estimated U.S. Energy Use in 2009: ~94.6 Quads
https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/
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Energy Essentials
• Fewer, long-lived centralized facilities with distribution networks• Change has required decades • Power and fuels are commodities with thin margins• Markets with government regulation and distortion• Technology alone does not a transformation make• Transport and Stationary are disjoint• Transport is powered by oil• Power
• Requires boiling large amounts of water • Sized for extremes (storage is difficult)• Numerous sources with differing…
• CapEx and OpEx • Emissions• Base/Peak/Intermittency
Supply
• Many distributed players, shorter-lived assets• User benefit (economics, convenience, personal preference)• Determined by price, standards, behavior• Little attention to system optimization for stationary use
Demand
• A big and expensive system• In private hands• Governed by economics, modulated by government policies
As a whole, energy is
4Source: EIA
US energy supply since 1850
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
1850 1880 1910 1940 1970 2000
RenewablesNuclearGasOilHydroCoalWood
Energy supply has changed on decadal scales
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U.S. Energy ChallengesEnergy Security EnvironmentCompetitiveness
Share of Reserves Held by NOC/IOC
Daily Spot Price OK WTI Global Lithium-ion Battery Manufacturing (2009)
Federal Deficit
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Administration GoalsTransport
Reduce oil imports by 1/3 by 2025 (~3.7 M bbl/day) Put 1 million electric vehicles on the road by 2015
Stationary By 2035, generate 80% of electricity from a diverse set of clean energy
sources Make non-residential buildings 20% more energy efficient by 2020
Environmental Cut greenhouse gas emissions in the range of 17% below 2005 levels by
2020, and 83% by 2050
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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Trends in Car and Light-Duty Truck Average Attributes showing changes in customer preferences, data from (EPA2010)
9Cumulative retail price equivalent and fuel consumption reduction relative to 2007 for spark ignition powertrain without hybridization (NRC2010)
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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Progressively Electrify the Fleet
Challenges with Batteries and Motors
Batteries
• Cost • Performance• Physical Characteristics
Adequate supply chain
• Rare-earth elements in permanent magnet motors
• Lithium in batteries • OEM & component
manufacturing capacity
Charging
• Infrastructure• Standardization of
chargers and grid interface• Charging times• Consumer behavior
Internal Combustion Engine (ICE)
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
Battery Electric Vehicle (BEV)
Plug-in Electric Hybrid Vehicle (PHEV)
Battery Evolution: R&D to Commercialization
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The energy storage effort is engaged in a wide range of topics, from fundamental materials work through battery development and testing
•High energy cathodes•Alloy, Lithium
anodes•High voltage
electrolytes •Lithium air couples
•High rate electrodes•High energy
couples•Fabrication of high
E cells•Ultracapacitor
carbons
•Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) systems•10 and 40 mile Plug-in HEV
systems•Advanced lead acid•UltracapacitorsLab and University Focus
Industry Focus
Advanced MaterialsResearch
CommercializationHigh Energy &
HighPower Cell R&D
Full System Development
And Testing
Hybrid Electric SystemsPetroleum Displacement via Fuel Substitution and Improved Efficiency
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Administration Goal:1 Million EVs by 2015
Targets and Status
2014 PHEV: Battery that has 40-mile all-electric range and costs $3,4002015 Power Electronics: Cost for electric traction system no greater than $12/kW peak by 2015
Status: $8,000-$11,000 for PHEV 40-mile range batteryStatus: Current cost of electric traction system is $40/kW
Types of Vehicles and Benefits
HEV
PHEV
EVNissan Leaf
Toyota Prius
Chevy Volt
All Electric
50 MPG
>100 MPGe
PHEV Battery Cost per kW·h
Power Electronics Cost per kW
System Cost
$1,000 - $1,200
$700 - $950
Goal = $300
Goal = $500
2010
2012
2014
2008
2015
$19
$22
Goal = $17
Goal = $12
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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R E
F I
N I
N G
Deploy Advanced/Alternative Fuels
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Platforms / Pathways
FeedstockProduction& Logistics• Energy crops• Agricultural
byproducts• Waste
Streams• Algae• Coal • Natural Gas
• Ethanol• Methanol• Butanol• Olefins• Aromatics• Gasoline• Diesel• Jet• Dimethyl
Ether • Heat and
Power
Co or By Products
PowerPyrolysis Oil Platform
Syngas Platform
LiquidBio-oil
Enzymatic Hydrolysis
Sugars FermentationCellulosic Sugar Platform
Algal and other Bio-Oils
Transesterification Catalytic Upgrading
ProductsFeedstocks
Fast Pyrolysis
Gasification
Lipid (Oil) Platform
Raw syngas
Filtration &
Clean-up
Upgrading
Other enzymatic/biochemical methods
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Biomass can provide significant carbon
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
Gasoli
neDiese
lCoa
lNatu
ral g
as
Other p
etrole
umNGLsCor
nPap
erSoy
Wood
pulp
Whea
t
Edible fa
ts/oils
Meat/P
oultry
Cotton
Biomas
s tod
ay
Biomas
s poten
tial
Fuel Fossil Agriculture Biomass
↑
15% of Transportation Fuels
1000
Ann
ual U
S C
arbo
n (M
t C)
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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Categories of US Energy ConsumptionBuildings use about 40% of total US energy
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U.S. Refrigerator Properties
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Lighting
Source: http://gaia.lbl.gov/btech/papers/3831.pdf
Image: False color image of workstation 35 with overhead lights at 100% and undercabinet light off. Calibration bar is in candelas per meter squared.
Manufacturing/CommercializationBasic Science Applied R&D
Solid-State LightingGoal : reduce 22% of nation’s total electrical energy usage by half
Wide Bandgap Semiconductors
Heteroepitaxial systems
Synthesis : Chemical Vapor
Deposition Modeling
Ga
Mg
N
H
Theory and modelingof defect energies
Fundamental understanding helps
eliminate Defects
Key Enabler for Manufacturing
• Lumileds (originally with HP)• General Electric• Cabot Superior Micropowders• Dow Corning• Veeco• Emcore• Cree• Bridgelux (under discussion)
Essential Tool Development
Sandia Labs & Lumiled Collaboration:
Cantilever Epitaxy reduces dislocation densities 100X
(R&D 100 Award)
Emcore Discovery
125 system
Sandia Labs & RPI demonstrates an 18% increase in light output
efficiency by modifying heteroepitaxial interface
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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The U.S. Grid The numbers
> 200,000 miles of transmission lines distribute approx. 1 TW of power Over 3,500 utility organizations
Desiderata Reliability Efficiency Security Flexibility to integrate intermittent renewables Two-way flow of information and power Growth to handle growing demand
Challenges Active management is required to balance generation, transmission, and
demand at all times Excursion from ideal operation can be catastrophic
24Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
25Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
26Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
27Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
28Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
29Source: http://www.npr.org/series/103281114/power-hungry-reinventing-the-u-s-electric-grid?ps=rs
Manufacturing/CommercializationBasic Science Applied R&D
Superconducting Wire: From Science to the Grid
Invented single crystal-like flexible templates by the kilometer:
Ion Beam Assisted
Deposition (IBAD)
Rolling Assisted Bi-axially Textured Substrate (RABiTS)
Developed epitaxial buffers:
HTS
IBAD-MgOBuffer
HTS
Buffers
RABiTSTM
Maximize current flow(understand vortex dynamics)
Develop segregation& growth mechanisms(new materials)
H
Js
Modify properties with nanostructures
Understand “quantum effects” in film growth
2 ML2 ML
Columbus, OH
Albany, NY
Long Island, NY
• Two companies are now manufacturing kilometers of superconducting cables based on the IBAD and RABiTS processes
• These are deployed in three demonstration projects in the grid.
1 mm
Transport
Stationary
Six Strategies
Supply
Deploy Clean Electricity
Deploy Alternative
Fuels
Modernize the Grid
Progressively Electrify the
Fleet
Demand
Increase Building and
Industrial Efficiency
Increase Vehicle
Efficiency
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Deploy Clean Electricity
Other technologies Natural gas Hydro Solar thermal
(parabolic troughs) Geothermal
WindSolar Photovoltaic (PV)
Concentrating Solar Power
Carbon Capture and Storage
Nuclear Energy
US Gas Supply by Source
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Unconventional gas sources will grow
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release
US Renewable Generation (GWh)
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Renewables are small, but growing rapidly, especially wind
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2011 Early Release
Renewable Electricity Costs (2009)
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Coal/gas-fired ~ 3-6 cents Nuclear ~ 7 cents
Source: 2009 Renewable Energy Data Book (EERE)
Manufacturing/CommercializationBasic Science Applied R&D
Low Cost Solar Cells: From Fundamental Synthesis Research to Commercialization
Basic research focused on materials-centric aspects of a micro-transfer printing process for single crystalline silicon and other semiconductors, dielectrics and metals
GaAs wafer
AlAs releaselayers
GaAs epi-stacks forsolar microcells
etch in HF
release; transfer print
regrow
EERE Solar America Initiative: Established new materials strategies & manufacturing methods for low-cost, high performance photovoltaic modules
Micro-Contact Printed Solar Cells
Industrial collaborations
John Rogers, Ralph Nuzzo (co-founders)
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DOE SunShot Program
0
2
4
6
8 8
$1.70
$0.80 $0.40
$0.50
$1.88 $0.72
$0.76
$0.40
$0.22 $0.12
$0.10
2004 Syste
ms
Prices
2010 Syste
ms
Prices
Power Electr
onics Cost
Reductions
BOS Improve
mentsBOS S
oft Costs
Reductions
Module Efficie
ncy
Improve
mentsManufactu
ring C
ost
Reductions
$1/W Target
$1/W
Inst
alle
d Sy
stem
s Pric
e ($
/W)
$3.80/W
Power Electronics
Balance of Systems (BOS)
PV Module
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Areas of DOE Research Focus
Materials
High Performance Computing
Non-Medical Biology
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Training the next generation of innovators
http://science.energy.gov/~/media/np/pdf/Accelerating_Innovation_9_01142011.pdf
Survey of 500+ DOE-supported nuclear science PhD’s (1999-2004)1/3 government service or at national research labs1/3 science and technology industries1/3 educate and train the next generation of skilled workers
We must integrate diverse players with diverse roles
Universities Knowledge, people, education, credible voices
National labs Large facilities and programs, multidisciplinary
RD&D For-profit sector
High-risk innovation, take technology to scale Optimize under economics and regulation
Government Consistent policies, precompetitive R&D
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QUESTIONS?/COMMENTS?http://science.energy.gov/s-4http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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DOE-QTR Scope
The DOE-QTR will provide a context and robust framework for the Department’s energy programs, as well as principles by which to establish multiyear programs plans and budgets. It will also offer high-level views of the technical status and potential of various energy technologies.
The primary focus of the DOE-QTR process and document will be on the following: Framing the energy challenges A discussion of the roles of government, industry, national laboratories, and
universities in energy system transformation Summary roadmaps for advancing key energy technologies, systems, and sectors Principles by which the Department can judge the priority of various technology
efforts A discussion of support for demonstration projects The connections of energy technology innovation to energy policy
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
DOE-QTR Timeline
Nov 2010
PCAST made recommendations for DOE to do QER
3/14 – 4/15
Public comment period for DOE-QTR Framing Document
4/20
First batch of public comments released on project website
Through mid-June
Hold workshops and discussions of each of the Six Strategies
End July/Aug
Submit DOE-QTR to White House for approval
Before Dec 2011
Release DOE-QTR
http://www.energy.gov/QTR
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DOE-QTR Logic FlowEnergy context
Supply/demand Energy essentials
Energy challenges Oil security US Competitiveness Environmental Impact
Players and RolesPrivate/Gov’tWithin gov’tEcon/Policy/TechAcad/Lab/Private
Technology Assessments
HistoryStatusPotential
Six strategiesDOE portfolio principles
DOE priorities and portfolioBalanced within and across strategies
Program plans and budgets
Technology Roadmaps
MilestonesCostSchedulePerformers
http://www.energy.gov/QTR