American Government American Government and Organizationand Organization

PS1301PS1301

Tuesday, 21 SeptemberTuesday, 21 September

AnnouncementsAnnouncements

Midterm scheduled for ThursdayMidterm scheduled for Thursday

Please do not forget scantronsPlease do not forget scantrons

Also bring a photo idAlso bring a photo id

How do people decide How do people decide who to vote for?who to vote for?

Prospective ModelProspective Model (Michigan) (Michigan) Party identificationParty identification Candidate characteristicsCandidate characteristics Issue positionsIssue positions

Retrospective ModelRetrospective Model Party identificationParty identification Evaluation of the pastEvaluation of the past

Party IdentificationParty Identification

““Generally speaking, do you usually think of Generally speaking, do you usually think of yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and yourself as a Republican, a Democrat, and Independent, or what?”Independent, or what?”Persons who call themselves Republicans or Persons who call themselves Republicans or Democrats are then asked: “Would you call Democrats are then asked: “Would you call yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a yourself a strong (Republican, Democrat) or a not very strong (Republican, Democrat).not very strong (Republican, Democrat).Persons who call themselves Independents, Persons who call themselves Independents, answer “no preference,” or name another party answer “no preference,” or name another party are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to are asked : “Do you think of yourself as closer to the Republican or to the Democratic party?”the Republican or to the Democratic party?”

Distribution of PartisansDistribution of Partisans

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Ideology and PartisanshipIdeology and Partisanship

Functions of Party IdentificationFunctions of Party IdentificationHelps you organize and categorize informationHelps you organize and categorize information

Perceptual ScreenPerceptual Screen Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush Helps you make value judgments. Is George Bush

competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?competent? Could Bill Clinton be trusted?

Influence Political BehaviorInfluence Political Behavior Persons who are party identifiers are more interested Persons who are party identifiers are more interested

in politics, more concerned about who wins the in politics, more concerned about who wins the election, and more likely to vote. election, and more likely to vote.

party id is the most important determinant of the way party id is the most important determinant of the way people votepeople vote

Partisanship over timePartisanship over time

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1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

Partisans Independents No preference

Influence of Party IdInfluence of Party Id

Dynamics of 2000 Presidential Dynamics of 2000 Presidential CampaignCampaign

Source: Johnston and Hagen (APSA 2003) “Priming and Learning: Evidence from the 2000 Annenberg Study”

CharacterCharacter

Perception of Gore’s HonestyPerception of Gore’s Honesty

Traits of CandidatesTraits of Candidates

Requirements for Issue VotingRequirements for Issue Voting

Aware of the issueAware of the issue

Care about the issueCare about the issue

Perceive difference between the Perceive difference between the candidatescandidates

Correct about the differenceCorrect about the difference

Criteria for Issue VotingCriteria for Issue Voting

Retrospective VotingRetrospective Voting

Party identificationParty identification

Evaluation of the pastEvaluation of the past economic indicators, “It’s the economy, economic indicators, “It’s the economy,

stupid”stupid” WarsWars

IncumbencyIncumbency