ALT Learning Technologist of the Year: Team Award

2009

European Foundation for

Quality in E-Learning:UNIQUe Award Winner

Professor Gilly Salmon &Sandra Romenska

Beyond Distance Research AllianceUniversity of Leicester, UK

“Few will have the greatness to bend history, but each of us can work to change a small portion of events, and in the total of all those acts will be written the history of this generation.”

Robert F Kennedy 6th June 1966

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Have the tools Have the techniques Have the vision

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1. Learn how to create visions for the future

quickly and collaboratively.

2. Discover possible, probable and desirable futures for learning.

3. Learn how to identify workable ideas for creating desirable futures.

4. Have F*N.

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From Tale of Two Cities - (1859) by Charles Dickens. It’s the first line of the book

It was the best of times...It was the worst of times...Foreshadowing is a technique used by authors to provide clues for the reader to be able to predict what might occur later in the story.

Red HerringsA hint that is designed to mislead the ‘audience’ is referred to as a red herring.

An example of foreshadowing is the self-fulfilling prophecy - that directly or indirectly causes itself to become true

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Red herring cards Fluffy Cloud cards

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“Content is King”“Everything you need for e-learning in

one box…”“Build it and they will come…”“Academics are resistant”

.

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Indistinctly prophetic….

“E-learning makes e mail look like a rounding error”“Undergraduate are used to working online”“ Open Educational resources will attract remote students to our university”“Working online is levelling for students and teachers”

1. What if ... there were only half of the number of campus based- colleges, schools and universities in the world compared to now?

2. What if ... all educational establishments had twice the numbers of students compared to now?

3. What if ...all students were allowed to attend to university only for the first year of their degrees

4. What if ...all educational resources are openly published on the web?

5. What if ...all formal supervised exams were banned?

6. What if all students brought the latest high tech laptop or personal networked devices with them to their class?

7. What if...there was no paper in the world

8. What if the internet/web crashed/melted down...02/12/2009 11Salmon & Romenska

External Environment

The university

Hindsight

Insight

Business cases

Pedagogical drivers

Technological choices

ForesightImpact on learners’ experience

Evidence forchange

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HINDSIGHTHINDSIGHT

INSIGHTINSIGHT

FORESIGHTFORESIGHT

How has learning changed in recent yearsWhat happened to learning that you

expected?What happened differently from your

expectation?

How has learning changed in recent yearsWhat happened to learning that you

expected?What happened differently from your

expectation?

What are the current trends, enablers, disruptions and barriers?

What are the current trends, enablers, disruptions and barriers?

How can we use this knowledge to prepare for the next 10 years?

How can we use this knowledge to prepare for the next 10 years?

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The Tree ofLearning

White Heat of Technology

InformalSecondary

Primary

Vocational

Work Based

CPD

Universities

Communities ofPractice

CampusBased

Schools

learning

DistanceProfessional

Blend

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A spark – issue of concern, question, problem. Occurrences Participants Environment/setting Outcomes Uncertainties

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Ask questions : “What will happen next”?

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STEEPLE: Social Technological Economic Environment (natural) Political LegalEthical

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Dilemma – choice between equal options.

Paradox – sequence of actions/statements, that leads to a contradiction.

Trade-off – situation where losing something means gaining something.

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Inconsistent

Hindering

Supporting

Inducing

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Your turn…

Never doubt the power of a small group of people to change the world.

Nothing else ever has.Margaret Mead

Be the change you want to see in the worldMahatma Ghandi

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No budgets or humans were harmed in the making of this presentation

Every society honors its live conformists and its dead troublemakers." Mignon McLaughlin

Salmon & Romenska

Beyond Distance Research Alliance

Learning Futures Festival Online 2010Positively Disruptive

7-14 January 2010

www.le.ac.uk/beyonddistance/festival

KEYNOTE SPEAKERSDr Stephen Bax, Professor Phil Candy, Aly Conteh, Dr Chris Davies,

Stephen Downes, Professor Ian Jamieson, Professor Josie Taylor, Tessa Welch Festival registration: £75 / closing date: 23 December 2009

ALT Learning Technologist of the Year: Team Award

2009

European Foundation for Quality in E-Learning:

UNIQUe Award Winner

02/12/2009Salmon & Romenska 31

Images:4. http://www.flickr.com/photos/34631569@N00/2759997701/6. http://www.leadership.prn.bc.ca/?m=20090315. http://clubwah.files.wordpress.com/2009/09/umbrella.jpg15. http://www.ewashtenaw.org/government/departments/cmhpsm/provider-homepage/images/Compass%20pic16. http://lambiek.net/artists/c/cortes_mario.htm17. http://www.virginmedia.com/movies/movieextras/top10s/top-ten-movie-robots.php?ssid=719. http://www.nfptech.com/images/content/pagebuilder/11626.jpg20. http://www.paradoxes.co.uk/site_files/escher-hands.jpg21. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Wind_vane_05643.jpg23. http://www.pachd.com/free-images/food-images/coffee-cup-01.jpg24. http://www.mimfreedom.com/christmas2/Images-Christmas/bigstockphoto_Christmas_Presents_Wrapped_By__1015849.jpg28.http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/lanow/images/2008/04/15/the_ferris_wheel_from_the_santa_mon.jpg31. http://magento- themes.joomlart.com/jm_purity/media/catalog/product/cache/1/image/5e06319eda06f020e43594a9c230972d/a/r/argus-qc-2185-quick-click-5mp-digital-camera-2.jpg

Professor Gilly Salmon &Sandra Romenska

Beyond Distance Research AllianceUniversity of Leicester, UK

Learning futures is a foresight methodology – it helps make sense of an uncertain future.

The focus is on making informed decisions.

The focus is on making democratic decisions.

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• The world is more complex than that envisaged when many of our institutions emerged. These institutions are faced with major new challenges and pressures.

• It is tough to be a leader in a time of such

uncertainty.

• Decisions made today will have effects years into the future. What will the world look like then?

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To motivate change.

To guide choices.

To generate a vision and an action-plan for realisation.

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To sharpen the capacity to deal with the unexpected.

To improve decision-making. To understand trends in the context of

their influence on an individual, organisation, business sector or region.

To detect emergence of new opportunities and to create strategies for achieving goals.

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• The future is not pre-determined or predictable.• If it were, there would be no point in taking action

today, because it would have no effect on the future.

• Full information about the future is never available.

• It makes sense to look for ways to understand the future to deal with uncertainty.

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• They help understanding a situation.

• Engaging in Learning Futures thinking enhances creativity.

• They are process/activity focussed.

• They are built on perceptions and opinions.

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• A characteristic, aptitude or process that attempts to widen the boundaries of perception by:– assessing the implications of present actions, decisions

etc.– detecting and avoiding problems before they occur

(early warning indicators).– considering the present implications of possible future

events (proactive strategy formulation).– envisioning aspects of desired futures (normative

scenarios).

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Process of connecting together various driving forces, trends, and conditioning factors so as to envisage alternative futures.

Thinking about the future is something that we all do.

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• Possible - “might” happen (future knowledge)

• Plausible – “could” happen (current knowledge)

• Probable - “likely to” happen (current trends)

• Preferable - “want to” happen (value judgements)

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External Environment

The university

Hindsight

Insight

Business cases

Pedagogical driversTechnological choices

ForesightImpact on learners’ experience

Evidence forchange

02/12/2009 42Salmon & Romenska

HINDSIGHTHINDSIGHT

INSIGHTINSIGHT

FORESIGHTFORESIGHT

How has learning changed in recent yearsWhat happened to learning that you

expected?What happened differently from your

expectation?

How has learning changed in recent yearsWhat happened to learning that you

expected?What happened differently from your

expectation?

What are the current trends, enablers, disruptions and barriers?

What are the current trends, enablers, disruptions and barriers?

How can we use this knowledge to prepare for the next 10 years?

How can we use this knowledge to prepare for the next 10 years?

02/12/2009 43Salmon & Romenska

One approach to Learning Futures is to see them as stories about how the world might look like in the future. They are descriptions in the form of a story, of possible developments that can lead from a current state of affairs to a future state.

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Learning Futures are stories about the future that are informed, plausible and based on analysis of the interaction of a number of factors.

They are a means to represent a future state in order to understand and plan action in the present in view of possible and desirable futures.

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The process of creating Learning Futures considers:

• A spark – issue of concern, question, problem. • Occurrences• Participants• Environment/setting• Outcomes• Uncertainties

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• Occurrence is something done or something happening. It is an answer to the question “What is happening? What is he/she/they doing?”

• Occurrences involve actors and stakeholders. Those who perform or cause the actions are actors. They answer to the question “Who?”

• Those, who are affected by the actions are the stakeholders. “Whom? To whom?”

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An occurrence has a probability and an impact associated

with it.

Probability can range from 0 (not happening) to 1

(certainty) and means likelihood that something will happen.

Impact is the effect – extent of change, brought about by

something happening. It usually has a subject – that which is

affected, upon which an occurrence has an impact.

For example, a meteor hitting the planet is an occurrence with low probability

but high impact. So was the crush of the financial markets or the collapse of

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Occurrences in Learning Futures

48Salmon & Romenska

When building a Learning Future, you

can generate alternatives by

considering the probability and the

impact of the events you have included.

Think of low probability - high impact

events and how to prepare for them.

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Participants can be:

• Individuals/organisations affected by an Issue.

• Individuals/organisations who make something happen.

They have relative degrees of power and interest inbringing change.

Consider groups with high power/low interest and viceversa.

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• Dilemma – choice between equal options.

• Paradox – sequence of actions/statements, that leads to a contradiction:

Example:Don't go near the water until you've learned to swim

• Trade-off – situation where loosing something means gaining something.

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• Inconsistent: Actions or motivations or impacts are inconsistent and if one occurs the other cannot.

• Hindering: Actions or motivations or impacts are obstructing each otehr, but its not impossible that they occur at the same time.

• Supporting: The occurrence of one supports the occurrence of the other.

• Inducing: The occurrence of one induces the occurrences of the other.

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Beyond Distance Research Alliance

Learning Futures Festival Online 2010

Positively Disruptive7-14 January 2010www.le.ac.uk/beyonddistance/festival

KEYNOTE SPEAKERSDr Stephen Bax, Professor Phil Candy, Aly Conteh, Dr Chris Davies,

Stephen Downes, Professor Ian Jamieson, Professor Josie Taylor, Tessa Welch Festival registration: £75 / closing date: 23 December 2009

ALT Learning Technologist of the Year: Team Award

2009

European Foundation for Quality in E-Learning:

UNIQUe Award Winner

02/12/2009 53Salmon & Romenska