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28 October 2009
(Agile) planning and estimation
How to plan the flight of a bird?
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
2
Planning, what is it?
Estimation- The art of guessing what the amount of time will be for a certain activity
Planning- The act of scheduling activities over resources and time in order to meet a certain deadline.
“Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. ”
Niels Bohr
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
3
The planning onion
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The ultimate goal?
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Goals of planning
Reducing Risk
Reducing Uncertainty
Supporting Better Decision Making
Establishing Trust
Conveying Information
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Estimating
Guessing the complexity and duration of a task/feature
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Estimating: complexity
Estimating on a relative scale!
We (humans) are good at relative estimating- 1 or 2, 5 or 10?
Example:
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Estimating: relative estimates
Points are an abstract representation of size, which includes complexity, effort etc.
Scales often used:- Fibonacci scale: 1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,…- Linear scale: 1,2,3,4,…- T-shirt sizes: S,M,L,XL
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
9
Estimating: relative points
Points do not have units(!)
Points are not directly related to hours or days
So why use them, if we need to plan on time?
How can we use an abstract concept to derive durations?
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Points: an example
Dog-points:- The height of a dog from the ground to the shoulder.
Assign dog-points to the following breeds:- Labrador retriever- Terrier- Great Dane (Deense dog)- Poodle- Dachshund- German Sheppard (Duitse herder)- St. Bernard- Bulldog
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A possible result…
Breed Dog-points
Labrador Retriever 5
Terrier 3
Great Dane 10
Poodle 3
Dachshund 1
German Sheppard 5
Saint Bernard 9
Bulldog 3
What did you choose as a basis, where are your dog-points relative to?
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
12
Important: Context!
The context of the estimating in points determines the outcome.
What if we chose another dog in the previous example?
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From points to time
Remember the dogs?
Pick a “known” task as a basis, and extrapolate.
This is in IDEAL-time
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Now estimate these (in ideal time)
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So we are done now?
We have a list of features expressed in ideal-time.
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Two problems remain
Where do we get the complexity points from?- Single source is bad (less context)- Who has the most experience?
- The implementors!
Converting ideal-time to lead-time
Assigning Priority- Business value first!- Technical complexity
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Getting complexity points
A tool is PLANNING POKER
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Intermezzo: Agile principles
Collaborate
Learn
Speculate
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Planning Poker
To determine Estimates- By builders/implementors
Reaching consensus FAST!
Gain relative effort estimations
Speculate
Collaborate
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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ResultTask 1 1
Task 2 3
Task 3 2
Task 4 5
Task 5 2
Task 6 2
Task 7 5
Task 8 13
Task 9 1
Task 10 2
Task 11 2
Task 12 3
Task 13 5
Task 14 8
Task 15 1
Clear,
Consise, tasks
Relative effort
Not: hours/days of work!
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
21
Planning poker, the mechanics – the cards
People are good at estmating within an order of magnitude.
Remember the ranges? Dog-points?
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
22
Planning poker --- preparations
We need:
A prioritized list of features or tasks.
An analist or business-person to elaborate on the tasks.
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
23
Planning poker --- A round of play
Per task:
Each person in the group shows his/her estimation at the same time, don’t think to long about it.
The highest and lowest scores elaborate on their choice (short!)
If needed, a short discussion about the values follows
Repeat the steps above until consensus is reached
Important: don’t give any information about your estimate before showing the card!
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
24
28 October 2009
Planning
Filling the box…
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Planning
Several techniques- Planning tasks and dependencies- Planning milestones- Linear planning- Gantt-charts- Time-boxing- Iterative
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Focus on: time-boxed planning
A Time-box is a fixed period of time. During this time we can work on implementing features (and preferably nothing else..)
A typical time-box is between 2 weeks and 2 months.
Time-boxes are also called iterations
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
28
Planning with time-boxes Input:
- Desired end-date- Prioritized list of features- “average speed of implementation”
Output:
Planning time-boxes
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
time box #
Fea
ture
s
Features
Projected end
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Nr. Of items can grow between time-boxes
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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Speculate
Collaborate
Learn
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Wednesday, 28 October 2009
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