Post on 28-Dec-2015
Agenda Item 1
Current situation: Market trends
Beef and veal consumption robust at around 300,000 tonnes each year
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012280
285
290
295
300
305
310
000 tonnes
Source: TNS/Kantar Worldpanel
Veal production has increased
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Source: DEFRA
000 tonnes
Exports of beef and veal have increased since 2006
Source: GTIS
Imports somewhat level
Source: GTIS
Self-sufficiency in beef and veal
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
72
67 6668 68
72
77 79 80 8184
8885
Source: DEFRA
%
Agenda Item 2
Male dairy calves
Live exports at a low level
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Head
Source : BCMS
Dutch farmers boycotted UK calf trade mid 2008 following detection of bTB
2012 - almost half to Spain
Spain
Ireland
France
Germany
Others
Source : BCMS
Dairy calf registrations since 2006 – male & female
Source : BCMS 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
326 330 335
370 370 371388
411 407
435450
465 471 480
Use of sexed semen Apr 2011 – Mar 2012 (DairyCo survey of breeding companies )
Holstein Non-Holstein0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000 1836
281265
31
Conventional
Sexed
No. of se-men straws
('000)
Destination of male calves (000’s)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Female Registrations 411.1 407.3 434.6 449.7 465.2 471.0 480.0
Male Registrations 326.3 330.1 335.1 370.3 370.3 371.4 398.1
Estimated no. males born * 411.1 407.3 430.3 440.9 451.6 452.9 457.1
Estimated no. disposed on-farm 84.8 77.2 95.2 70.6 81.4 81.5 59.0
Live exports 80.7 63.8 51.4 1.0 0.7 13.3 8.0
Estimated no. retained in GB 245.6 266.3 283.7 369.3 369.6 358.1 390.1
• From 2008 onwards, applying a 1% year on year increase in the number of heifers born due to the use of sexed semen
Destination of dairy male calves
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
% live exports% retained in GB% disposed on farm
Link between feed costs and registrations evident
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
£ per tonne 000 head
Rearing calf prices volatile since 2006 – but have moved up
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep Oct
Nov
Dec Jan
Feb
Mar
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
£ per head
Source : AHDB/EBLEX
Ho/Fr heifers
Ho/Fr bulls
Upwards evolution in finished cattle prices continues
J F M A M J J A S O N D280290300310320330340350360370380390400410
GB R4L deadweight steer price
2013 20122011
Source: AHDB/EBLEX
p per kg dw
Evolution of compound cereal prices since 2006
2006
Q1
2006
Q2
2006
Q3
2006
Q4
2007
Q1
2007
Q2
2007
Q3
2007
Q4
2008
Q1
2008
Q2
2008
Q3
2008
Q4
2009
Q1
2009
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2010
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2011
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
Q4
2012
Q1
2012
Q2
2012
Q3
2012
Q4
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
£ per tonne
Source : DEFRA
Dairy male calf registrations/beef and veal imports - a stable relationship
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012200210220230240250260270280290300310320330340350360370380390400 Calf reg Imports
Source : BCMS/GTIS
000 head/000 tonnes
Economic prospects
• Tighter global & domestic supply will tend to support beef prices
• Margins possible for better quality animals
• Highly dependent on input prices
• Domestic market for veal still underdeveloped
• What value provenence ?
Financial performance (May-Apr)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120.00
200.00
400.00
600.00
800.00
1000.00
1200.00
1400.00
Extensive Beef FinishingSource: AHDB/EBLEX estimates
Noncash costs
Overheads (£)
Variable costs (£)
Stock purchases (£)
Output (£)
Higher prices through 2011 and 2012 filtering through to improve returns, but still negative margin for many
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Intensive Beef FinishingSource: AHDB/EBLEX estimates
Noncash costs
Overheads (£)
Variable costs (£)
Stock purchases (£)
Output (£)
Agenda Item 3
Health and welfare of dairy calves
Dairy calf health and welfare
• Calf survival a continuing focus of attention – Perinatal mortality – Early stage nutrition – Control of disease
• Dearth of robust industry data• Specialist rearing units more
switched on to best practice ? • Outcome based welfare
measures for dairy cows
Colostrum (volume and quality)
• Too much milk does not cause scour • Well fed calves develop higher immunity• 60% calves have inadequate colostral
immunity• Recommendation for 10% of body weight
in critical first 6hrs• £14/calf added cost feeding saleable milk• Reinforcement of strategies/best practice • Needs agreement on protocol from all
parties
Emerging results from DairyCo funded CASE studentship• Perinatal mortality
– Mean 5.4 % (Range 1% to 13.9%)
• Differences in feeding regime for male calves– Yes:34%, No:66%
• Recorded examples, males given– increased volume of milk to prepare for sale– waste milk, often in significant volume– milk powder, while heifers given fermented whole milk
• Proportion of bull calves disposed of on farm– 6.3%
Nutrition up to weaning
• A system based on feeding:– 10% of bodyweight
• (45 kg calf gets 4.5 litres)
– 10% concentration of powder • (4.5l @10% - 450 g powder)
• Whereas feeding:
– 2.5 % of bodyweight• (45 kg calf @15% = 5.5l)
– 5% concentration of powder• (5.5 l @ 15% = 825 g powder)
Little more than maintenance
Maximum growth, when calf is biologically most efficient
Disease Risk/Effect on Yield
Calf health & welfare workshop
• Royal Vet College, 23 July 2013– DairyCo Research Partnership (Health, welfare & nutrition)
• Aim to identify– best practice guidelines for calf rearing– gaps to be addressed in current knowledge
• Four themes– health, welfare, housing and production economics
• Cross sector representation– Farmers, vets, researchers, legislators
Agenda Item 4
Developments in breeding
Reducing heifer losses
• Average heifers calving down at 28 months• Attrition rate of heifers during rearing period still
too high• Higher losses of dairy progeny from heifer calvings• Management during first lactation • Targetting better performance
– DairyCo PD+ blueprint – Benchmarking (e.g. Milkbench+)– PhD study: Economic analysis of heifer rearing and
breeding selection in UK
Current purebred genetic evaluations
• DairyCo provides evaluations for major dairy breeds • Pursuit of fitness traits tends to select for animals
with better conformation• UK genetic ranking encourages use of fitness traits
– Longevity, Fertility, Mastitis, Lameness• Genetic trends in all 4 areas are in a positive
direction• Since 2012, information available on farm’s herd
genetic reports• HUK introduced Body Condition Score indexes
Sire usage for combined fitness(Note; 2007 saw major change in £PLI)
Current PLI review likely further emphasise fitness traits, and include a Live weight component
Use of sexed semen
• DairyCo survey of breeding companies indicate that sexed semen accounted for 13% of sales in 2011/12
• Resulting in approx. 5% skew towards female progeny
• Constraints to greater adoption of sexed semen– Reduced conception rates– Less attractive to block calving systems– Lack of semen availability from elite bulls – Price ?
Cross breeding
• Since 2010, DairyCo also evaluates cross-bred animals
• Andy – some words on cross breeding and impact on calf price?
• Dairy systems modeling (Moorepark economic model)
Make it easier to choose semen
• Industry KT events on-going to educate farmers on use of the indexes on a pure and cross-breed basis
• DairyCo and Holstein UK both have websites that allow farmers to select the bulls that suits them
• Genomic selection
Extended lactations
• Industry trend towards increasing lactation length • Modern genotypes can still be yielding significantly
beyond 305 days• Theoretical advantages of 18 (or 24 month) lactations
– Fewer progeny – reduced metabolic stress and increased longevity– insemination costs– reduced number of dry days within the cow's lifetime
Extended lactations
Evidence to date indicates• Feasible, but yield level and persistency of lactation are key• Different cows and sire groups react differently to delayed
breeding• Potential for cows to get too fat, compromising subsequent
lactations• Economics not sufficiently proven• Block calving systems more challenging, need 24 month
system• Further information needed to on interactive effects of
lactation pattern, diet and management before any wider recommendations
Development of Carcass EBV’s
• DairyCo/EBLEX funded study to evaluate potential of combining abattoir data with BCMS data
• Alternative approach in absence of beef progeny test• Feasibility study indicated
– Heritability estimates for net carcass weight, conformation & fat class: 0.31, 0.24, & 0.14
– Data challenges, registration
• EBLEX in discussion with breed societies regarding funding of potential implementation phase