Post on 18-Mar-2018
Advanced Manufacturing, Materials & Engineering Study
MARCH 2016 WORKSHOP
MATRIX NI
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CONTENTS THE AIM OF THE STUDY .................................................................................................................... 2
AGENDA ............................................................................................................................................ 3
AMME DEFINITIONS ......................................................................................................................... 4
AMME 2016 STUDY – WHAT’S IN? ................................................................................................... 5
FORESIGHT ........................................................................................................................................ 6
POLICY REVIEW ................................................................................................................................. 6
IDENTIFYING WITH UK FORESIGHT ‘TRENDS’ ................................................................................... 7
HEADLINE POINTS ............................................................................................................................. 8
NORTHERN IRELAND ECONOMIC OUTPUT SPRING 2016 .............................................................. 10
DATA SETS ...................................................................................................................................... 12
AIM OF THE RESEARCH ................................................................................................................... 12
CATALOGUING CLUSTERS ............................................................................................................... 13
KEY AREAS OF ACTIVITY – CONSULTATION .................................................................................... 14
SURVEY WORD CLOUDS ................................................................................................................. 15
SURVEY: FREQUENT & CONSISTENT THEMES ................................................................................ 16
CHANGES IN GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR MANUFACTURING ... 17
THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY MODEL DEMONSTRATING HOW MATERIALS CAN BE KEPT WITHIN A PRODUCTIVE LOOP ......................................................................................................................... 18
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THE AIM OF THE STUDY
“For longer term planning on business infrastructure development, government needs
informed, independent advice on future directions in advanced manufacturing. We now
have the opportunity not only to present a picture of advanced manufacturing in Northern Ireland today, but also to create a vision of how
the sector might grow in the next 5-10 years.”
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AGENDA
10:00 OPEN
INTRODUCTIONS & WELCOME Rob Hardeman & Richard Buckley
BACKGROUND SCENE SETTING Rob Hardeman Richard Buckley
10:45 WORKSHOP SESSION 1
Stream (i) - Skills Bryan Keating, Matrix Chair + Apprenticeship Forum Chair
Stream (ii) - Costs Richard Buckley
Stream (iii) – Sectoral Development Ben Walsh, High Value Manufacturing, Innovate UK
12:30 LUNCH
13:15 SESSION 1 SUMMARY Richard Buckley
13:45 SESSION 2 WORKSHOP + CONCLUSIONS Rob Hardeman
15:00 CLOSING REMARKS Andrew McCormick, DETI Permanent Secretary
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AMME DEFINITIONS
Featherstone & Sullivan Materials types are labelled in variety of ways, often overlapping.
Different types of materials can be defined or qualified in terms of: traditional categories (e.g. ceramics, polymers, alloys)
• material properties (e.g. optical, electronic, magnetic) • application (e.g. materials for low energy technologies) • the nature or scale of engineering (e.g. nano-materials, micro-materials) and • sector (e.g. aerospace materials)
These categories are not intrinsically distinct. Some advanced materials could correspond to some or all of these labels.
Furthermore, there a variety of labels used to qualify categories of materials. i.e.
• ‘advanced materials’ • ‘high value materials’ • ‘modern materials’ • ‘future materials’.
(Featherston & O’Sullivan, A review of international public sector roadmaps-advanced materials)
President’s Council of Advisors on Science & Technology Advanced Manufacturing is:
“a family of activities that
a) depend on the use and coordination of information, automation, computation, software, sensing, and networking, and/or
b) make use of cutting edge materials and emerging capabilities enabled by the physical and biological sciences, for example nanotechnology, chemistry, and biology.
This involves both new ways to manufacture existing products, and especially the manufacture of new products emerging from new advanced technologies.”
(President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology Report to the President on Ensuring American Leadership in Advanced Manufacturing)
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AMME 2016 STUDY – WHAT’S IN? Included in previous MATRIX study & still In
Out...but worth a re-look? Out & still out
Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products
13 Manufacture of textiles 10 Manufacture of food products
22 Manufacture of rubber and plastic products
14 Manufacture of wearing apparel
11/12 Manufacture of beverages and tobacco products
23 Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products
15 Manufacture of leather and related products
19 Manufacture of coke and refined petroleum products
25 Manufacture of fabricated metal products, except machinery and equipment
16 Manufacture of wood and of products of wood and cork, except furniture; man. of articles of straw and plaiting materials
24 Manufacture of basic metals
26 Manufacture of computer, electronic and optical products
17 Manufacture of paper and paper products
27 Manufacture of electrical equipment
18 Printing and reproduction of recorded media
28 Manufacture of machinery and equipment n.e.c.
29 Manufacture of motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers
30 Manufacture of other transport equipment
20 Other manufacturing
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FORESIGHT
Market opportunity What are the disruptive technologies coming down the line?
Global macro-economic trends What do they mean for Northern Ireland industries?
Challenge and change within manufacturing What evidence is there on the ground?
POLICY REVIEW
UKTI / GO-Science Foresight • Industrie 4.0 – strong digital focus –even stronger if
reviewing now – re-enforced by Innovate UK position in November 2015
• Even wider use of case studies • Workshops • Market opportunities are important – but we must
look to areas where report can make most impact • Technologies 2.1 • Sustainability • New world of metrics
Technology & Innovation Futures report
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IDENTIFYING WITH UK FORESIGHT ‘TRENDS’
Manufacturing in the future
“The future of manufacturing – a new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK.”
Customisation
“Servitisation” Circular Economy
Increasing interaction between firms to give
access to indirect capabilities
Business models like “infinite bandwidth/zero
latency” & general purpose technologies
Value through environmental sustainability &
provenance
“Factory-less goods
producers”
Collaborative consumption
Personalisation of products
Factories of the future
Co-location & “Industrial Commons”
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HEADLINE POINTS
Manufacturing sector – OUTLOOK Spring 2016 (UUEPC) Locally, the high profile job losses announced in the manufacturing sector in 2015 and early 2016 have contrasted with several new investment announcements. This is a reminder of the volatile nature of global investment patterns and looking forward, the UUEPC forecasting model continues to suggest a relatively modest rate of growth.
Sectoral Outlook for Manufacturing The most recent data shows manufacturing employment growing strongly.
Since the trough of the 2012 recession, the NI Manufacturing sector has created
6,300 That’s equivalent to growth of 8%
Compared to
3%
The outlook remains positive but growth will be lower reflecting the difficult international trading environment and the recent announcements at JTI, Michelin and Bombardier (with the impact being most significantly felt in 2017 and 2018).
NEW JOBS
in the UK. 80,170
THE TOTAL NUMBER EMPLOYED IN THE
NORTHERN IRELAND MANUFACTURING
SECTOR IN 2016 IS
TOTAL NUMBER EMPLOYED IN ADVANCED MANUFACTURING IN
NORTHERN IRELAND IN 2016:
THAT’S OVER
55% OF ALL
MANUFACTURING JOBS IN NI 44,350
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R&D Performance
R&D investment by manufacturing companies increased by
£209.1m
£44.8m
£199.3m
Advanced Manufacturing BERD
Other Manufacturing BERD
All Other BERD
Contribution to GVA MANUFACTURING
CONTRIBUTED
OF TOTAL NI GVA IN 2014 COMPARED TO A UK AVERAGE OF
1100%%
1166%% Key source of growth in recent years: Northern Ireland’s manufacturing sector has grown by 19% over the past 5 years compared to a 2.3% decline across all sectors.
through the trough of the downturn 2008-14,
compared to an average of
Advanced Manufacturing companies make up
3322..77%% of the total number of R&D performing companies, but
they undertook
5511..88%% of the TOTAL BERD in 2014
217% 136% across ALL sectors
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NORTHERN IRELAND ECONOMIC OUTPUT SPRING 2016 ULSTER UNIVERSITY ECONOMIC POLICY CENTRE
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PRODUCTION & MANUFACTURING
1.6% 0.9% 1.6% 2.4% 2.6%
CONSTRUCTION 2.4% 2.9% 2.7% 2.2% 2.0%
PUBLIC SECTOR SERVICES 0.1% 0.9% 1.7% 0.9% 1.0%
PRIVATE SECTOR SERVICES 2.4% 1.5% 1.9% 1.8% 1.7%
TOTAL 1.6% 1.3% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%
2015 0.5%
2016 0.6%
2017 2.0%
2018 2.5%
2019 2.5%
2020 2.5%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
BANK OF ENGLAND BASE RATES
2015 0.1%
2016 0.8%
2017 1.0%
2018 1.7%
2019 1.8%
2020 2.4%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
UK CONSUMER PRICES INDEX (CPI)
MACRO ECONOMIC FACTORS IMPACTING UK & NI PERFORMANCE
POTENTIAL BREXIT
GROWTH IN CHINA
OIL PRICES
UK INTEREST RATE FORECAST
UK INFLATION RATE FORECAST
NORTHERN IRELAND GVA SECTORAL FORECASTS
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1.6%
3.3%
6.9%
1.3%
3.7%
5.4%
1.8%
4.0%
2.8%
1.7%
4.2%
3.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
GVA Growth Rate Unemployment Rate House Price Growth
2016 2017 2018 2019
Forecast is for approximately 40,000 new jobs over the next 10 years building on approximately 45,000 net new jobs 2012-2025
AGRICULTURE
+200
MANUFACTURING
+4,000
CONSTRUCTION
+4,400
RETAIL +1,900
TRANSPORTATION
+3,300
INFORMATION &
COMMUNICATION +4,400
ACCOMMODATION
+3,300
PROFESSIONAL &
SCIENTIFIC +8,500
ADMIN SERVICES
+8,100
PUBLIC
ADMINISTRATION & DEFENCE
-6,500
EDUCATION
-1,500
HEALTH & SOCIAL
WORK +3,400
ARTS &
ENTERTAINMENT +4,000
NORTHERN IRELAND EMPLOYMENT FORECAST 2015–25 (SELECTED SOURCES)
NORTHERN IRELAND ECONOMIC GROWTH TO BE RELATIVELY MODEST AS OVER RELIANCE ON CONSUMER SPENDING IS UNSUSTAINABLE
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DATA SETS Our research has drawn on a wide range of sources including:
Firm Data Funding Data HE/FE Data
• NISRA • Fame • Bel Tel 100 • Profit 200 • LSE Man & Eng • World R&D Scorecard
• Invest NI – GR&D / PoC • Innovate UK • HMRC – R&D
Reliefs/Patent Box
• Research Pillars
• Industrial
Primary Sources Collaboration
• Survey responses • Firm interviews
We have prioritized businesses/clusters according to high value measures such as:-
• R&D Expenditure • Collaborative R&D Engagement • Export & Sales • Number of Employees
AIM OF THE RESEARCH
“Culmination of these data sets along with consultation feedback
will offer us a strong insight to sector, both in terms of overall
trends and individual company performance.”
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CATALOGUING CLUSTERS
•Well defined •Mature cluster •UK aligned •NI Strategy in place
Aero, Defence, Space & Security
•Well defined •Cluster-ready
Materials Handling
Green resource efficiency/Circular economy
•Well defined •Mature collaborative network
Polymers
• Further definition required
Agri-Engineering
• Further definition required
Construction Products
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KEY AREAS OF ACTIVITY – CONSULTATION
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SURVEY WORD CLOUDS
Weaknesses
Threats
Opportunities
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SURVEY: FREQUENT & CONSISTENT THEMES
•Apprenticeships •‘Green’ graduates •Upskilling existing workforce •Leadership & management skills for SMEs •Commercial exploitation skills •Marketing & sales skills for engineers •FE & HE
Theme 1: Skills
•Overseas trade/Export challenges (FX) •Energy challenges •Industrial rates stability •Corporation Tax implementation
Theme 2: Cost
•Understanding of supply chain needs •R&D Collaboration •Clustering: Celebrate combined strengths / Partners •Diversification •Branding
Theme 3: Sectoral Development
•To be explored at workshop session, but might include: •Celebration of existing strenghts •Ambition around a common theme •New Department for the Economy - DETI (with Invest NI) + DEL •Key themes from earlier Matrix reports - are these still valid?
Theme 4: Future Opportunities
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CHANGES IN GLOBAL TRADE AND INVESTMENT WITH IMPLICATIONS FOR MANUFACTURING
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THE CIRCULAR ECONOMY MODEL DEMONSTRATING HOW MATERIALS CAN BE KEPT WITHIN A PRODUCTIVE LOOP
The shift towards a circular economy, combined with a trend of pricing ecosystem services, could provide manufacturing firms with new revenue streams.
Currently manufacturing can involve the production of by-products which are considered waste and with a zero price value, for example waste heat, and ecosystem services which produce clean water. As these by-products become increasingly valuable, they can be traded between manufacturing firms and more widely in the economy.
Business models that capture value from under-utilised resources include those characterised as ‘industrial ecology’, where industries are generally co-located to utilise what would be waste for one business as resource for another. This has the potential to reduce reliance on virgin raw materials and mitigate against volatility in energy prices.
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