ADAPT, MOVE or DIE

Adapt?

Adapt?

Adapt?

Adapt?

MOVE?

Move?

beech

Move?

Moving Cloud Forests

• Monteverde, Costa Rica

• Golden toad extinction• Reptile/amphibian

abundance declines (frogs, toads, anoline lizards)

• Upslope Movement of birds

• Associated with trends in dry days (mist surrogate)

Move?

or Die?

Understanding the Future

Diastella proteoides

or Die?

Diastella proteoides

or Die?

Diastella proteoides

or Die?

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or Die?

or Die?

Source: Owen (2006)

or Die?

Malcolm et al (2006) Conservation Biology

or Die?

Extinction Risk, Cape Floristic Region(% of endemic species)

Thomas et al Malcolm et al

30.0 52.0 no dispersal 15.4 68.0

21.0 38.0 perfect dispersal 2.4 17.4

Region taxa Current

Protected Area

Additional Protected Area

required (no climate change)

Additional Protected Area required with

climate change

Cost of Waiting

km2 Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current) Area (% of Current)

Cape Floristic Region

Plants (Proteacea) 282

4,681 2,190 (47%) 2,485 (53%) 408 (9%)

Tropical Mexico

Birds and Mammals 179

104,000 44,000 (42%) 44,500 (43%) 12,300 (12%)

Western Europe

Plants (multiple taxa) 1200

20,850 3,850 (19%) 8,950 (43%) 2,000 (9%)

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or Die?

Hannah et al (2005) Bioscience

Improved conservation strategies

Limiting greenhouse gas concentrations

Extinctions are not inevitable