Post on 19-Dec-2015
THE GAINS FROM TRADE: DISSECTING THE CAUSES
• Differences between countries in the relative scarcity of goods
• Reflected in differences in (relative) prices in the absence of trade (autarky relative prices)
• Due to • Supply side differences
• Relative productivities
• Relative factor endowments
• Demand side differences• Differences in tastes
(3) GAINS FROM TRANSPORT-COST REDUCTION (OR LIBERALIZATION) ABROAD
Note: Direction and magnitude of effect depends exclusively on the impact on the terms of trade (price of exports relative to price of imports)
GAINS FROM TRADE: THREE APPROACHES• Three sets of simulations
• Own liberalization• Others’ liberalization• PTAs
• Size of effects depends on• Share of trade in GDP• Extent of market segmentation or price differential
• Terms of trade effects• They mute the gains from liberalization in some large countries (e.g.,
the U.S.)• They are responsible for some of the “perverse” (negative) effects in
the Table.
EMPIRICAL QUESTIONS• Why do the Bradford and Lawrence numbers differ so much from the World Bank
and IFPRI estimates?• What do these numbers imply for the magnitude of benefits for continued trade
liberalization (e.g., Doha)?• What features of the real world may lead us to inflate these numbers (or reduce
them)?• Scale economies: but can cut both ways• Externalities, imperfect competition and other market failures that may be alleviated or
aggravated by trade openness• Gains from product variety• Static versus dynamic efficiency gains (trade => productivity growth over time?)• Samuelson’s riposte: the terms-of-trade effects of other nations’ productivity gains• Peterson Institute: US richer by $1 trillion a year due to “past globalization”• Considerations of employment/unemployment?
CAN TRADE EQUALIZE REAL WAGES ACROSS COUNTRIES• Head-to-head competition in standardized industrial products
• role of labor productivity
• Differentiated products• Degree of substitutability in demand
• Relationship-specificity of production
• Non-competing production• Soccer balls for high-tech products
• Do non-traded sectors shield workers from the forces of global competition?
TRADE: MAJOR ISSUES
• Trade and jobs• Job displacement versus unemployment
• Trade affects structure of employment, not amount
• But can cause unemployment in the short-run?
• The role of “Keynesian
• Adjustment costs• Differ from the “permanent” distributional effects discussed earlier
• Distributional effects go beyond any adjustment costs