A New Plea for the Separation of the South

Gavin Wright

Legacy of the War on Poverty Conference

University of Michigan

June 12-13, 2012

Main Points• South has the highest U.S. poverty rate

~40 percent of the poor since 1979

• South had greatest poverty reduction 59-78–More through Civil Rights than War on Poverty

• Voting Rights Act promoted two-party competition and moderate policies

• Despite progress, continued relevance of race and region for poverty policy

Poverty Rates by Region

Shares of US Poor

Poverty Rates

USA SOUTH BLACK SOUTH

BLACK RURAL

1959 22.0 35.4 68.5 77.7

1969 12.1 17.9 40.8 54.3

1978 11.4 14.7 34.1 37.2

Poverty Numbers (000)

USA SOUTH BLACK SOUTH

BLACK RURAL

1959 38,766 19,166 7,505 4,925

1969 24,147 11,090 4,850 3,089

1978 24,497 10,255 4,429 2,202

Change 1959-1978

14,269 8,911 3,076 2,723

Mississippi: Post-Neonatal Infant Death Rate from diarrhea and pneumonia

Post-Neonatal Mortality Rates by Race and Region 1955-75

Cohort-Specific AFQT Gap Between South and “Rustbelt”

SOURCE: Chay, Guryan, Mazumder (2010)

EEOC Occupational Shares

Conditions for Poverty Progress

• Growth of Job Opportunities– Especially for those with limited schooling

• Interests of the Poor linked to interests of larger groups– Racial exclusions & black middle class– Biracial coalitions for economic growth

• Federal authority exerted over state/local

• Better schools

American Chickens: 1929

American Chickens: 1992

% of County Population Black

Black Elected Officials

% BEOs/% Population 2001

County Commission

All Elected Officials

Alabama 0.979 0.717

Mississippi 0.749 0.565

SOUTH 0.375

NON-SOUTH 0.095

Michigan 0.150

New York 0.079

U.S. Senators by Party

Southern Governors by Party

A Prom Divided

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1980 1990 2000 2010Year

State/Local Sales Tax Liability for Family of 3 at Poverty LineNortheast 1982-2008

Tax Liability at Poverty Line:NORTHEAST

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040

060

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1980 1990 2000 2010Year

State/Local Sales Tax Liability for Family of 3 at Poverty LineSouth 1982-2008

Tax Liability at Poverty Line: SOUTH

Source: Newman and O’Brien, Taxing the Poor (2011)