A Look at the Kyoto Protocol

Examining the effectiveness of the protocol as a solution for future climate change with an evaluation of the effect

of the United States’ refusal to join

Michael Phillips and Luke Schiferl

Goals of the Kyoto Protocol

Annex 1 countries must collectively reduce GHG emissions to 5% below 1990 levels

Part of UNFCCC Carbon Credit Trading Treaty will be effective until 2012, at which

time a new treaty shall be in place

Setup

Three Runs:

1. Successful Kyoto

2. Kyoto Never Exists

3. Kyoto Without United States

1

2

3

Relative Effectiveness of Kyoto

Kyoto Compared to Today

Relative Effect of U.S. Not Joining

Effect Compared to Today

Summary

Kyoto is beneficial

Is not strong enough

Is not a long term solution

Needs full compliance

Is not enforceable

Keys to Future Success

More stringent regulations

Must have global compliance

Must remain short term

Must be reviewed

Must be enforceable