Post on 08-Feb-2021
A Look at Portland and Salem’s Economy
April 26, 2018
Employment and Wages (U.S. Summary)• Employment continued to grow at a modest pace
• Persistent labor market tightness and brisk demand for qualified workers
– Increased activity at staffing placement services
• Worker shortages across most sectors, especially construction, information technology, and manufacturing
• Wage growth picked up to a modest pace
• Employers raising wages and expanding benefit packages in response to tight labor market conditions.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 1
Federal Reserve Bank: The Beige Book, March 7, 2018
Employment and Wages (Western U.S.)
• Labor market conditions remained tight and upward wage pressures increased
• Labor shortages in various sectors, especially for high-skilled positions.
• Difficulty finding workers experienced in information technology, accounting, and finance
• Banking sector reported moderate wage growth for entry-level positions to increase retention
• Health insurance sector increasing their use of offshore labor and automation in response to tight labor market conditions.
• Minimum wage laws continued to put upward pressure on labor costs
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment
Federal Reserve Bank: The Beige Book, March 7, 20182
What are some of the results of the
tight labor market?
• Our economy hasn’t experienced this level of competition for workers since the 1990s and early 2000s.
• Increased opportunities for workers. Job seekers with little work experience, limited skills, or that may have been previously discriminated against (ex-felons and current inmates, people with disabilities).
• Employers become more flexible for applicants lacking experience. Increased importance of OJT. (On the job training)
• Job growth in recent years has caused employment to grow fastest among those with less formal education.
• Wage growth has occurred, but not very strong. Could that change?
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment
Portland Metro Area
Another Solid Year for the Portland Metro Area
2016 2017
Unemp. Rate4.7% 3.9%
Unemployed 59,800 51,300
Jobs 1,145,100 1,172,900
Labor Force 1,275,700 1,310,400
Hourly Earnings $26.96 $27.87
6
Full Employment(or close)
Full Employment
Low unemployment (3%)8
Unemployment
Definition of unemployed
To be counted as unemployed (in the regularly used definition), an individual must be age 16 or older, not on active duty in the military, not in an institution, and:
– Not employed
– Available for work
– Making specific efforts to find employment within the last four weeks.
Note: whether or not an individual has applied for, is receiving, or has ever received unemployment insurance benefits is not a factor in the statistical definition of the unemployed.
10 10
Portland’s jobless rate hit a new low in 2017
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2,018
11.3% in summer of 2009
Portland Metro
United States
Source: Oregon Employment Department , U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
3.5% inspring of 2017
11
Unemployment in Portland (2016)
12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
White Asian AfricanAmerican
AmericanIndian
Hispanic 16-19 20-24
By Race and Ethnicity By Age
New to the workforce: 42%
Lost job: 42%
Left job: 15%
13
Why are Oregonians Unemployed?
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
Oregon Unemployment by Reason [Trend]
Entrants
Job Losers
Job Leavers
Source: Oregon Employment Department, CPS
13
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
16.0
20.0
24.0
2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Oregon's U-6(Bar Represent NBER Recessions)
Source: Oregon Employment Department and National Bureau of Economic Research
14
Jobs
Ancient History
900,000
950,000
1,000,000
1,050,000
1,100,000
1,150,000
1,200,000
1,250,000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
Employment in Portland Metro
82,000 jobs lost(-7.8%)
Fully recovered by October 2013
February 2018:133,500 above pre-recession
16
2014 and 2015 were very good years…
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Portland Metro- Annual Job Growth
1,600
3,000
2,600
2,0001,800
17
Broad-Based Growth
18
Something Happened on the Way to 2017
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Portland Metro- Annual Job Growth
1,600
2,300
2,8003,000
2,600
2,000
1,8002,200
19
A Broad-based Slowdown
Education& Health
Finance AllIndustries
Government
Construction
Trade, trans.,
util.
Information
Prof. & business
svcs.
Leisure &hospitality
Manufacturing
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
Portland's Industry Growth, 2017 vs. 2016
2016 2017Growth across all industries:
2016: 3.3%2017: 1.9%
Growth across all industries:2016: 3.3%2017: 1.9%
Growth across all industries:2016: 3.3%2017: 1.9%
Growth across all industries:2016: 3.0%2017: 2.4%
20
Cranes by US City
Seattle : 45
LA : 36
Denver : 36
Chicago : 36
Portland : 32
San Fran : 26
DC : 27
NY : 18
21
Income
Wasn’t a Low-Wage Recovery…
23
… Isn’t a Low-Wage Expansion
24
Portland incomes are nearly 9% higher than before the Great Recession. The typical metro has yet to recover.
Portland has jumped from 32nd highest to 19th highest among the 100 largest metro areas (2007, 2016).
26
27
Median Household Income- Portland Metro
28
Median Household Income
US Census, ACS Table S1903
Hispanic
Black
White
28
$21,972
$22,423
$23,050
$23,499
$23,793
$24,264
$24,590
$24,628
$25,892
$26,883
$31,618
$32,472
$33,014
$34,259
$36,004
Josephine
Umatilla
Linn
Klamath
Douglas
Marion
Jackson
Polk
Lane
Yamhill
Benton
Deschutes
Multnomah
Washington
Clackamas
2015 Per Capita
Income
By Oregon County
89% of Oregonians live
in one of the 15 largest
counties.
Multnomah is the 3rd
wealthiest of the large
counties.
2015 Per Capita Income
By Oregon County
$21,972
$22,423
$23,050
$23,083
$23,499
$23,793
$24,264
$24,590
$24,628
$25,892
$26,883
$31,618
$32,472
$34,259
$36,004
$38,735
Josephine
Umatilla
Linn
Multnomah - East
Klamath
Douglas
Marion
Jackson
Polk
Lane
Yamhill
Benton
Deschutes
Washington
Clackamas
Multnomah - West
Divide Multnomah County between
“East” and “West” along 82nd Avenue.
“West Multnomah” would be the
wealthiest Oregon county with an
average income 68% higher than “East
County”. If it were a US state, it would be
the 2nd wealthiest state.
“East Multnomah” would be among the
poorer counties, but with a population
greater than Linn, Umatilla and
Josephine combined. If it were a US
state, it would be the 49th wealthiest,
between West Virginia and Mississippi.
Population
Net Migration is Back
Who Moves to Portland?
Outlook• More moderate, sustainable growth
– Closer to 2% (statewide)
• Will outpace the average state
• Low probability of recession in the near term
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment
Salem Metro Area
Unemployment rates are near historic lows in
Salem and nationally.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 37
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 Jan-15 Jan-17
Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates
US
Oregon
Salem MSA
Salem’s employment is nearly 8% or 12,000 jobs
above its pre-recession peak in 2008.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 38
125,000
130,000
135,000
140,000
145,000
150,000
155,000
160,000
165,000
170,000
Feb-07 Feb-08 Feb-09 Feb-10 Feb-11 Feb-12 Feb-13 Feb-14 Feb-15 Feb-16 Feb-17
Salem MSA Total Nonfarm Employment (Seasonally Adjusted) 2007-Present
However, those employment gains have varied
significantly by industry.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 39
-1,000 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000
Mining, logging, and construction
Manufacturing
Trade, transportation, and utilities
Information
Financial activities
Professional and business services
Education and health services
Leisure and hospitality
Other services
Government
Salem MSA Employment: Change from 2008 to 2017
Salem’s construction employment is back up to its level prior to the recession.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 40
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Salem MSA Construction Employment: 2001-2017
Marion County’s building permits have seen a
steady rise in recent years.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 41
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Marion County Total Building Permits
Much of the increase in Polk County has been due
to growth in West Salem.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 42
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Polk County Total Building Permits
Similar to other areas, the inventory of houses for sale in the Mid-Valley is very limited.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 43
-
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Ja
n-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Se
p-1
0
Ja
n-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Se
p-1
1
Ja
n-1
2
Ma
y-1
2
Se
p-1
2
Ja
n-1
3
Ma
y-1
3
Se
p-1
3
Ja
n-1
4
Ma
y-1
4
Se
p-1
4
Ja
n-1
5
Ma
y-1
5
Se
p-1
5
Ja
n-1
6
Ma
y-1
6
Se
p-1
6
Ja
n-1
7
Ma
y-1
7
Se
p-1
7
Ja
n-1
8
Salem Metro Area: Housing Inventory
Salem’s average rent has shot up above the
national average in recent years.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 44
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
No
v-1
0
Feb
-11
Ma
y-1
1
Au
g-1
1
No
v-1
1
Feb
-12
Ma
y-1
2
Au
g-1
2
No
v-1
2
Feb
-13
Ma
y-1
3
Au
g-1
3
No
v-1
3
Feb
-14
Ma
y-1
4
Au
g-1
4
No
v-1
4
Feb
-15
Ma
y-1
5
Au
g-1
5
No
v-1
5
Feb
-16
Ma
y-1
6
Au
g-1
6
No
v-1
6
Feb
-17
Ma
y-1
7
Au
g-1
7
No
v-1
7
Average Monthly Rent
United States
Salem, OR
Source: Zillow
Salem’s population has a larger share of young residents compared to the state.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 45
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
0-14 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-65 65+
PE
RC
EN
T O
F TO
TAL
PO
PU
LAT
ION
Age Distribution 2016
OREGON
Salem MSA
Salem has been Oregon’s 3rd fastest growing MSA
since 2000, behind Bend and Portland.
Support Business ∙ Promote Employment 46
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro
Eugene-Springfield
Medford
Salem
Corvallis
Bend-Redmond
Percent Population Growth 2000-2016
Population Growth From 2000 to 2016
Central Oregon and Portland are
expected to grow the fastest…
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18%
Oregon
Portland Tri-County
Columbia Gorge
Central Oregon
South Central
Douglas
South Coast
Northeast
Southeast
Columbia Basin
Rogue Valley
Northwest
Lane
Mid-Valley
Total employment Job Growth 2014-2024
Patrick O’Connor, Regional EconomistOregon Employment DepartmentPatrick.S.Oconnor@Oregon.gov
(503) 400-4374
Amy Vander Vliet, Regional EconomistOregon Employment DepartmentAmy.S.VanderVliet@oregon.gov
(971) 804-2099
To find this presentation online, go towww.QualityInfo.org
and use the search box to look up our names
Join the conversation:OregonEmployment.blogspot.com
Twitter @OrEmployment