A Longitudinal Analysis of the College Transfer Pathway at McMaster

Karen MenardYing Liu

Jin ZhangMarzena Kielar

Office of Institutional Research and Analysis, McMaster University

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Pathways in Higher Education Conference, Toronto, January 27, 2012

Overview of the Literature•College transfer students are disadvantaged in terms of degree attainment. The impacting factors are:

•Cultural

•Goal of education

•Education cost

•Social economic background

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•College transfer students are more likely to be non-traditional (older, part-time, commuter)

•More likely to drop out than traditional students

•Outside environmental factors play a more significant role than to traditional students

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Overview of the Literature

•Further factors affecting college transfer students:

•Challenges: academic standards, university size, location, and competition among students

•Opportunities: faculty/staff advice, career counselling, transfer readiness, and graduation requirements

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Overview of the Literature

Research Focus

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•What are the differences between college transfer and direct entry

•What factors impact the progression of college transfer compared to direct entry

•Longitudinal perspective: factors affecting college transfer students

Methodology

•Eight cohorts of undergraduate students entering directly from high school and college (2000 - 2007)

•Each cohort followed from entrance to 2009/10

•Both time-invariant and time-variant variables are included

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Potential Impacting Factors

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– Average grade– Student loans– Student grants

Time invariant variables

Time variant variables

Demographic Distribution of Data

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Progression Status as of 2009

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Graduation by Term Distribution

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Probability of Persistence

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Direct Entry

College Transfer

What are the differences between college transfer vs. direct entry

• 2000 to 2006 cohort (followed for at least 4 years)

• 1612 from college, 28680 direct from high school

• Multinomial logistic regression model

• Dependent variable: student outcome with three nominal categorical levels: graduation, dropout, and persistence (reference level)

• Tested various models• Model: further control gender, admission average, and financial support

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Results• Students with any of following features are more likely to

graduate:

• Younger students

• Female

• Full-time

• From Ontario

• Receiving higher amount of loan

• Higher session average grade

• College transfer

• Model global test: Χ2 (LR)=14331, df=52, p<0.0001, Pseudo R2 =34.3%

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Major factors affecting college transfer students over time

•1903 from college (2000 to 2007 cohorts)

•Time variant discrete proportion hazard models

•Events: graduation and dropout, persistence as right censoring

•Dependent variable: number of registered terms

• Independent variables: all 12 variables including time variant ones

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– Average grade– Student loans– Student grants

Time invariant variables

Time variant variables

• College transfer students are more likely to drop out if they have the following features:

• Older

• Part-time

• Low session average grade

• Majored in specific areas

• When separating full-time and part-time, age does not affect part-time dropout

• Model global test: Χ2 (LR)=718, df=25, p<0.0001, Pseudo R2 =7.9%

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Results

Summary of Findings

• More college transfer students were part-time and they were older on average

• Overall graduation rate of college transfer students was lower and dropout rate was higher than direct entry students

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However

• A young college transfer student who enrolls in full-time status is as likely to graduate as a direct entry student

• Further control other variables, college transfer students are more likely to graduate than direct entry students

• College transfer students with lower grades are less likely to graduate

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Implications• Academic performance is nevertheless a very important impacting factor

• Age and registration status causes the retention issues through many mediating factors

• Ensure the appropriate institutional supports (student services, academic, etc) for university

• Policies need to support program transfers and collaborative programs

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Thank You

•A Modeling Degree Attainment of College Transfer Students at a Four-year Canadian Institution Abstract is available upon request

•Email: avpira@mcmaster.ca

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