CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION and

DISASTER PREPAREDNESS -

a challenge for development

Youth Environment Summit - Baguio 2 May 2011

Going to school on a bamboo raft

Wind Direction and Wind Speed

Hourly Rainfal, Average Pressure and Winds in Manila Observatory (26 Sep 2009)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

12 AM 3 AM 6 AM 9 AM 12 PM 3 PM 6 PM 9 PM

Time (pht)

Rai

n (m

m)

985

990

995

1000

1005

Pres

sure

(hPa

)

Rain

Barometric Pressure

• The highest rainfall was measured in Manila Observatory between 9 AM

and 1 PM.

• Highest rainfall of 61.4 mm/hr was measured at 10 AM

Weekly Accumulated Rain = 459.8 mm

Accumulated Rainfall in Manila Observatory (21-28 Sep 2009)

0

100

200

300

400

500

9/21 9/22 9/23 9/24 9/25 9/26 9/27 9/28

Dai

ly R

ain

(mm

)

Accumulated Rain

Daily

Normal Monthly Accumulated Rain for September

Daily Rain 26 Sep 2009 368.6 mm

• “Ondoy” brought a total of 368.8 mm of rain over Manila Observatory on September 26, 2009.

• This daily rain measured in Manila Observatory is higher than the monthly normal (330.3mm) in the Port Area.

8 meters high

5 meters high

Marcos Highway Bridge on Marikina River.

Inundation of the Provident Villagein Marikina City

Closer Look

Mangahan Floodway: How efficient is it now.

Originally designed with a width of 260 m with a high water level at 14 m at the exit section of floodway with 1 m freeboard.

During Typhoon Ondoy, about 3,000 CMS went through MangahanFloodway resulting in 2-3 meters flooding above the freeboard.

The Ondoy tragedy is due to an extreme event …

BUT…..

Magnitude and extent could have been much less

Given wider and deeper channel ways

Greater capacities of natural retention ponds

For the future, among others we should:

increase, widen and deepen our channel ways,

implement easement rules strictly,

reforest,

allocate retention ponds

Climate Change: our changing world

What’s it all about? Global Fever

(Sources: Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia, Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office, Data set TaveGL2v, Jones and Moberg, 2003)

Warming trends of the last century

Prof. Dr. Anders Levermann, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Climate ChangeObserved facts, future projections and risks in a warming world

PFCs

HFCs

SF6

Greenhouse gases (GHGs) trap heat from the sun to keep the Earth warm.

H2O

Water vapor

CO2

Carbon DioxideCH4

Methane

NO2

Nitrous Oxide

CO2

CH4

N2OHFCs

PFCs SF6

CO2CO2

CH4CO2 N2OCH4HFCs

SF6 SF6

CO2 CO2

CO2

CO2

CO2CO2 CO2

CH4

N2O

Increasing levels of GHGs in the atmosphere make for a warmer world leading to abrupt changes in climate!

The Greenhouse Effect

CO2

Global temp

CH4

A DangerousExperiment

Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

• Global atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide, methane & nitrous oxide have increased as a result of human activities since 1750.

– Pre industrial value: 280 ppm

– 2005 value: 379 ppm

• 11 of the last 12 years (1995-2006) rank among the 12th warmest years since 1850

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

Source: 1994 Philippine GHG Inventory

TOTAL: 103,085 kt CO2

(50,038 kt CO2)(9,198 kt CO2)

(33,137 kt CO2) (10,711 kt CO2)

GHG Sources in Phil.

What’s it all about?

To summarize…

World has gotten warmer.

It will continue to get hotter in this century and beyond.

We are causing this dangeroustrend.

More precipitation

from increased

evaporation due to higher

temp

Annual mean precipitation expected to increase about 14% in East Asia – but this is not distributed evenly in the region

Changes in annual mean precipitation in %

(period 2071/2100 compared to 1961/1990, SRES A2)

http://ec.europa.eu/environment/climat/adaptation/index_en.htm

Projected precipitation changes

ADB Study on Economic Impacts of CC in Southeast Asia:- Indonesia, Thailand and

Vietnam will begenerally drier in next 2-3 decades

- Philippines will be generally wetter til the end of this century

Cotabato, August 2009400,000 people displaced

Laguna, Sept 2009

Sept 27, 2009 - Mindoro Occidental

Baguio, Oct 2009

Pangasinan, Oct 2009

A1B: very rapid economic growth, low population growth, rapid introduction of new, more efficient technology

HAZARD

Risk: Climate Change(Rainfall)

Rainfall Hazards

Disasters: Earth falls

Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte (Feb 2006)

San Ricardo, Southern Leyte (Dec 2003)

• Mudslide happened after heavy rains dumped 459.2 mm of rain on the area in the space of 3 days.

• In Dec 2003, at least 200 died from landslides and flooding after the area experienced the heaviest rainfall in 25 years.

• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands

• Erode beaches

• Intensify flooding

Rising Sea

Levels

Observed consequencesSea level rise of past 140 years

15 - 20 cm

Sea

leve

l ris

e re

lativ

e to

188

0 (c

m)

Year

Metro Manila

Many of our LGUs are highly vulnerable –located in coastal areas

• Inundate wetlands and other low lying lands

• Erode beaches

• Intensify flooding

• Increase the salinity of rivers, bays and groundwater tables

Rising Sea

Levels

Developing countries,

will be hit soonest and hardest.

Adaptation provides the way to prepare for

and respond to these impacts.

This is the challenge

we face.

SALTWATERINTRUSION

2003

WATER RESOURCESCountry Total Resources 2000

m3/personWorld 42,655.0 7,045

Asia 13,508.0 3,668

United States of America 2,460.0 8,838

Japan 460.0 3,393

Lao People’s Democratic Republic 190.4 35,049

Malaysia 580.0 26,074

Myanmar 880.6 19,306

Indonesia 2,838.0 13,380

Cambodia 120.6 10,795

Vietnam 366.5 4,591

Philippines 146.01/ 1,9071/

Thailand 110.02/ 1,8542/

• Only 2.56% of the world’s water is freshwater

At Manila’s South Harbor mean sea level rose at about 2 millimeters per year from 1902 to the early 1960’s. . .

. . then started rising ten times as fast. WHY?Groundwater withdrawal!

<20 million liters per day (MLD)

250 MLD

778 MLD

1770 MLD in 2004 (CEST 2004)

989 MLD in 1990 (JICA 1992)

Metro Manila`s

groundwater demand is

still increasing.

Consequent subsidence

will continue and may

even accelerate!

Benchmarks used for re-leveling (1978 vs 2000) survey (Jacob 2004)

Tuff

Coastal/Alluvial

0.95

1.40

1.46

0.76

0.790.1

60.77 0.9

6

0.96

0.88 0.5

7

0.67

0.95

0.73

0.61

0.59

0.51

0.57

0.43

0.46

0.46

0.46 0.4

7

0.64

Maximum magnitude of subsidence – 1.46 m (6.1 cm/y)

Change in height of maximum high tide, from 1991 to 2002 based on social survey ranges from 0.5 - 1.0 m (4.5 – 9.1 cm/y)

There appears to be an acceleration in rate of subsidence in recent years.

Lateral variation in magnitude of subsidence is not a function of underlying lithology.

* Winter temps will change more than summer temps.

• Minimum daily temp will increase more than max. daily temp

• Land will warm more than oceans, causing stronger monsoon

• Higher latitudes and altitudes will experience greater warming

• Number of frost days will decline, precipitation more rain that snowfall

Based on the IPCC middle

range scenario,entire East

Asia Region will

experience temperature rise of about

2.5C by end of the century

Risk: Climate Change (Temperature)

TemperatureHazards

Across SocietyVulnerable sectors

– Agriculture– Freshwater– Health– Biodiversity– Forests

ENSO drought events and rice

1oC increase leads to15% decrease in rice yield

From: www.sciencentral.com: Cassman, IRRI, National Academy of Sciences

El Niño and Philippine Crops

Source: Impacts of Climate Change in Asia, Burning our Future, Greenpeace

Climate Change Impacts

CORAL BLEACHING

& DEATH

• 1995 & 1998 coral bleaching events

World Wildlife Fund. Climate Change Scenarios for the Philippines

• June-Nov 1998 coral bleaching led to 46% decreasein coral cover and about 49% of overall coral death in the area

• Increase in sea surface temperatures of

Bolinao, Kalayaan Island Group, NW Palawan)

Arceo, et. al. Coral Bleaching in the Philippines. Disturbing Climate. 2001

about 0.50C can already initiate

coral bleaching

(e.g., Tubbataha Reef Marine Park,

Licuanan et al., 2001

Coral reefs occupy 1% of total earth’s surface but is home to 25% of marine life

40 Million Filipinos depend on seafoodas their primary source of protein.

50% of Filipinos depend on agriculture /mariculture

as their primary source of livelihood.

Direct Observations of Recent Climate

Change

There is observational evidence of increase intensity of tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since 1970 correlated with the increase in sea surface temperature.

Cold days, cold nights and frost have become less frequent. While hot days, hot nights, and heat waves have become more frequent.

More intense and longer droughtssince 1970 particularly in the tropics and subtropics due to increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation.

Source: IPCC 4th Assessment Report: Summary for Policy-makers

Graffiti over East Asia

CLIMATE CHANGE…• These changes are happening

faster than ever before.

• They have begun & will continuefor the foreseeable future.

• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.

• There are no assurances that natural or human systems can adapt quickly enough.

In summary, harm’s way:

• Typhoon– Luzon (north, southeast), Visayas (east)

• Drought (El Nino)– Mindanao (central, west)

• Climate Change – Temperature: Mindanao, Visayas

(central)– Rainfall: Luzon (central, south, southeast),

Visayas (east)

Aggravated by loss of forests which serve as carbon sinks & watersheds

• Half of the forests that originally covered 46% of the Earth's land surface are gone.

• Only one-fifth of the Earth's original forests remain pristine and undisturbed

EROSION CLASSES, 1993Unclassified

1%

Moderate Erosion

28%

Slight Erosion

30%

Severe Erosion

17%

No Erosion24%

LAND RESOURCES

CLIMATE IMPACTS

Environmental Destruction Economic Disruption

Social DislocationPolitical Destabilization

- Due to its geographic location in the Pacific Ringof Fire , it has many fault lines

- Over 200 volcanoes, 20 of which are active

- Visited by an average of 20 typhoons annually

Philippines – one of the most vulnerable countries to natural

disasters

Historical typhoon track

in the Philippines

Geohazard

It is a condition/s of the environment brought about by a geological phenomenon/na, t hat has/have the potential of causing loss of lives and damage to property (Risk).

Hazard - rock will fall

HAZARD

Risk - rock fall will harm couple

RISK

Philippines – one of the most vulnerable countries to natural

disastersThe natural hazards of geologic & hydrometeorologicorigins:

(1) earthquake-induced landslide, (2) ground shaking(3) ground rupture(4) Liquefaction(5) volcanic eruptions(6) flooding;(7) storm surge; and (8) rain-induced landslide.

- Urgent need for Disaster Risk Reduction, not justDisaster Response

- To be done under the Hyogo Framework for Action(HFA) adopted in January 2005 during the World Conference on Disaster Reduction.

- HFA calls for the effective implementation of DRR efforts to substantially reduce disaster losses by 2015in terms of lives and in the social, economic, andenvironmental assets of communities and countries,as an essential condition for sustainable development.

Philippines and Natural Disasters

Disaster Risk Reduction:

People and institutions involved in preparedness, mitigation, and prevention activities associated with extreme events.

Disaster Myths:• People panic during disasters, they

cannot be relied upon to react rationally

• The chaos that follows disasters encourage many people to engage in anti-social behavior – looting

• External experts are the main agents in risk reduction and disaster response

Disaster Myths:

• People are fatalistic about disasters and do not take action to protect themselves

• When disaster strikes, people are helpless, passive dependent victims incapable of carrying out even basic tasks

Average Annual Impact in the Philippines

• 1,025 deaths• 835 people

injured• 252,915 people

displaced• P8B worth of

damages

Emergency Response

Post-Emergency

Prevention & Mitigation

Preparedness

Framing Disaster Risk Reduction

Disaster Management Cycle

PREPAREDNESS

MITIGATION

RESPONSE

REHABILITATION

RECONSTRUCTION

Challenges, Opportunities & Gaps

Logistics andEquipment

Coherent institutional Coordination in DRR

Preparedness forSaving Properties

& Recovery

Enhancing Community Based DRR & Early Warning Systems

Linking DRR to ClimateChange Adaptation(management tools)

Need for a More Reliable Data

EvacuationCenters

With new threats like climate change and global warming, the risks of natural disasters are intensifying and could potentially reverse the gains achieved over the years on humandevelopment and the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals.

Natural Disasters and Climate Change

What is the business case for

ending life on earth?

New Rule

If we insist on ruining the planet, we have to stop

claiming we are a “superior species”

CONCLUSION• Business as usual is NOT AN OPTION!

• Unless action is taken now:- the standard of living will suffer far worse

consequences- poverty will be exacerbated

- there will be more damage to property & lives- decades of growth can be wiped out - man’s very survival is at great risk!

CONCLUSION• Climate change action

will require concerted effort of governments & their partners (PRIVATE SECTOR. NGOs, communities, development partners) to manage and adopt to a changing & more invasive environment

SHARED RESPONSIBILITY

WE MUST PLAN TOGETHER.

Under the framework of SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

1. Reduce carbon(mitigation)

2. Reduce risk(adaptation)

Some Mitigation Measures:• Energy Conservation• Improve energy efficiency• Shift to alternative, renewable fuel

(non fossil fuel)• Control urban sprawl• Improve mass transport system• Water conservation • Water recycling• Ecological Solid Waste Mgt – composting,

recycling & reuse • Stop burning of waste

Mitigation alone is not enough -

impacts of Climate Change a REALITY we need to adjust to and plan for

NOW!!!

Temperature - Mitigation & Adaptation Sound Practices

Tokyo & Singapore Roof-top gardens and roadside greening to reduce impacts of urban heat island effect

Seattle Urban greenery project

Albuquerque & Seattle (King County)

Improved building design and insulationGREEN BUILDINGS

GreeningGreen Walls (urban farming)

June 18

GreeningGreen Walls (urban farming)

June 18Aug 5

GreeningGreen Roofs (urban farming)

GK Office in Cagayan de Oro

Natural lighting

Vents to allow warm air to go out

Natural lighting &ventilation

GK Office in Cagayan de Oro

Natural lighting

Vents to allow warm air to go out

Natural lighting &ventilation

Sea level rise - Adaptation Sound Practices

Singapore Increase the ground level in all reclamation projects to factor in likely increase in sea-level

Shanghai 2 phase project to regulate water flow to reduce flooding and provide platform for water quality monitoring

London Redesign of Thames Barrier flood control system

• Relocate high risk settlements

Precipitation - Adaptation Sound Practices

London

Venice

Redesigning urban storm water drainage system considering change in frequency and intensification of rainfall79 gates at 3 lagoon inlets in Venice (air injected into hollow gates causing them to rise & block seawater

Tokyo Designing urban holding ponds under roads and parks to temporarily store run off water to avoid flash floods

Jakarta To construct storm water drainage canal system (East Canal) to provide adequate drainage for eastern part of city

Vietnam Build large & medium reservoirs upstream of big riversStrengthen extensive dike system (5000 kms of river dikes & 3,000 kms of sea dikes)

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Water(Singapore)

Expanded rainwater harvestingWater storage & conservationWater re-use (NeWater)DesalinationWater use and irrigation efficiency

. We are blessed with more than140 Billion Cubic Meters of

rainfall, each year.

We lose nearly 80% of it

Promote the setting up of small lagoons/ ponds (water impounding) in the lowest portion of your area –(could be also used for aquaculture and agriculture)

Allow rainwater to recharge the aquifer

FLOOD HEIGHT: 4-5m

HOUSE DESIGN & STANDARDS

- Houses on stilt in Candaba (flooding)

- Build to withstand stronger typhoons

Photo by J. Ong

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Agriculture Develop rice varieties that can withstand being under water for long periods and can also withstand drought;

Use rice farming method that requires less water

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Infrastructure & settlements

RelocationSeawalls & storm surge barriersCreation of marshlands &

wetlands as buffer vs sea levelrise & flooding

Protection of existing natural barriers

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Energy Strengthening overhead transmission & distributioninfrastructure

Underground cabling for utilitiesUse of renewable sourcesReduced dependence on single energy source

Examples of key sectoral adaptation opportunities

Sector Adaptation option/strategy

Public health Comprehensive vector surveillance program (to identify source of infectious disease to be identified and eliminated before it poses a threat to the population)

• Construct rainwater collection systems (including ponds where appropriate) in our premises to capture rainwater, recharge the aquifer and as hedge against coming droughts and saline water intrusion into the aquifers as sea level rises

• Support effective watershed management toprotect the source of our waters

• Implement the pertinent provisions of the Clean Air Act, Clean Water Act and EcologicalSolid Waste Management Act.

Protect remaining forest resourcesand PLANT MORE

• Practice eco-waste mgt

• Supportreuse andrecyclingprograms

• Do not burnyour waste including agriculturalwaste

Methane Emission Reduction Project

• Annual reduction in greenhouse gases: 116,000 tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent

• Total 10-year reduction: 1,163,394 tonnes from 2008 to 2017

QC partnered with PANGEA – an Italian firm

Benefits to the city:• Donation of Euro15 -32/CER sold• Free electricity for power plant• Free street lighting• Plantsahan ng Bayan

BIOGAS PLANT

PIPELINES

CERTIFIED CLEAN DEVELOPMENTMECHANISM (CDM)

After 6 years operation, more than 10M tons dumped in the facility. Saw another OPPORTUNITY –

Landfill Gas to Energy Project

Montalban bidded the project. Montalban Methane Power Corp ( a joint venture of the Zamora group with

a British firm won)

Financial benefits to Montalban, Rizal:

Royalty of 10% gross revenues

Project Revenue Profile:2/3 Power Tariff 1/3 CER Revenue

Estimated emissionreduction of 8.1M tons of CO2e

Investment of $38M c/o MMPC

THE WORLD IS CHANGING.

Are we on board as leaders or merefollowers?

VOTE EARTH!Be Part of the EARTH HOUR

• Switch off your lights from 8:30pm to 9:30pm on the last Saturday of March

• 2011 - Go Beyond the hour

Join the Celebration of Earth Day - April 22

Be part of the Movement!

2010 Theme: HAMON ng PANAHONCLIMATE CHANGE

2011 Theme: Earth Day Every Day!

We have no choice.

We have to adapt to this more invasive environment to ensure our very survival!

AVOID the UNTHINKABLE!

ADAPT to the UNAVOIDABLE!

SECURING LIFEBOATS & LIFELINESUnderstanding Sea Level Rise / Storm Surge / Saltwater Intrusion

LAOAG

APARRI

HAGONOY

PUERTO GALERA

A comprehensive study involving over 20 experts and based on over 300 peer reviewed scientific articles.

El Niño Southern Oscillation Eventsare likely to continue as a significant source of inter‐annual climate variability in the Coral Triangle region.

Sea Surface Temperaturesare likely to be between 1 to 4oC warmer by the end of this century.

Tropical Cyclonesare likely to become more intense.There is no clear Consensus, however, as to whether the location or frequency of tropical cyclones will change in a warming world.

OVERVIEW

Rainfall and River Floware likely to become more extreme. The inter‐annual variability of monsoon rainfall will increase. The intensity of drought associated with a given rainfall deficit will be greater in a warmer world.

Sea Levelsare likely to rise from +4 to +6 meters due to the possibility of The melting of the large land-based ice sheets in Antarctica and Greenland. The possible timing of such events remain uncertain.

Ocean Acidificationwill likely make the aragonite saturation state “marginal” for coral reefs and marine life that require calcium carbonatewithin the period 2020‐2050.

OVERVIEW

CLIMATE CHANGE…

• These changes are happeningfaster than ever before.

• They have begun & will continuefor the foreseeable future.

• They are non-linear and no one knows when they will end.

• There are no assurancesthat natural or human systems can adapt to the rate or extentof this change.

SIMULATIONS

+2 METERS+4 METERS

+6 METERSPlus a

safety marginat +12 METERS

Prepare for the worst. Hope for the best.

• High threat coastal sitesmay become increasingly inhospitable.

• Climate refugees maymigrate away from coastalareas to inland sites.

• Movement of people andgoods may be seriouslycurtailed.

• Basic services andinfrastructure may not beprepared to handle majorshifts in population.

POTENTIAL FOR SERIOUSECONOMIC & SOCIAL

DISLOCATIONS, AS WELLAS NEW ENVIRONMENTAL& POLITICAL PRESSURES.

These are flood simulations, they are not forecasts.At best, this might provide a very rough indicatorof areas that may be more vulnerable toSea level rise, Storm surge, Saltwater intrusionor a combination thereof.

The timing and extent of climate change remains uncertain.

These have been generated merely to illustrate the level of potential riskthat parts of the Philippines may be exposed to, in order to allow better preparation.

SEA LEVEL RISESIMULATIONS

THE PHILIPPINES

Laoag

+ 12m risk zone

APARRI

+ 12m risk zone

Lingayen Gulf

+ 12m risk zone

Central Luzon

+ safety margin

+ 12m risk zone

Metro - Manila

+12m risk zone

+12m risk zone

Batangas

+12m risk zone

Lucena City

+12m risk zone

Mindoro

+12m risk zone

BUSUANGA

Coron

Culion

+12m risk zone

EL NIDO

+12m risk zone

TAYTAY

+12m risk zone

SAN VICENTE

+12m risk zone

DUMARAN

+12m risk zone

ROXAS

+12m risk zone

PUERTO PRINCESA

+12m risk zone

NARRA

+12m risk zone

ESPANOLA

+12m risk zone

BATARAZA

+12m risk zone

BALABAC

Camarines Sur

+12m risk zone

Boracay

+12m risk zone

Roxas City

+ safety margin

+12m risk zone

Iloilo City

+ safety margin +12m risk zone

Negros Occidental

+12m risk zone

Cebu City / Mactan

+ safety margin

+12m risk zone

Leyte

+12m risk zone

Dumaguete

+ 12m risk zone

Bais

+ 12m risk zone

Surigao

+12m risk zone

Butuan

+12m risk zone

Bugo

+12m risk zone

Cagayan de Oro

+12m risk zone

Iligan

+12m risk zone

Panguil Bay

+12m risk zone

Carmen

+12m safety margin

Panabo

+12m safety margin

Davao

+12m safety margin

Digos

+12m safety margin

General Santos City

+12m risk zone

Cotabato

+ 12m risk zone

2

Malabang

+ 12m risk zone

3

Pagadian

+ 12m risk zone

4Ipil

+ 12m risk zone

Zamboanga

Zamboanga

+ 12m risk zone

5

Basilan

Jolo

Bongao

Tawi Tawi

Sitangkai / Sibutu

WATERFOODHEALTHLAND / HOMELIVELIHOOD

THE NAUTICALHIGHWAY

All major seaportswill require somere-engineering.

NEW AVIATION BACKBONE?Lower Risk to Sea Levels / Storm Surge

Located beyond +6 Meter flood levels

LuzonTuguegarao City ( R2 )Cauayan, Isabela ( R2 )Baguio City ( CAR )Angeles City ( R3 )Lipa City ( R4 )Naga City ( R5 )Legaspi City ( R5 )

VisayasSanta Barbara, Iloilo ( R6 )Silay City ( R6 )

MindanaoCagayan de Oro City ( R10 )Davao City ( R11 )General Santos City ( R12 )Jolo City ( ARMM )

ADDITIONAL “LIFELINE” ELEMENTS

• Social / Commercial / Political Institutions• Telecommunications• Energy• Banking & Finance• Insurance & Risk Coverage• Health Systems• Disaster Preparation & Response

Adaptive Management

CLIMATE ADAPTATION

We can prepare for this.Act now. Locally.