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7. StrategicResearchPortfolio:ImprovedManagementofWaterResourcesinMajorAgriculturalRiverBasins

Ourvision:equitablesharingofwaterforagriculturalandenvironmentalpurposes

Ourvisionisbetterandmoreequitablesharingofwaterandlandresourcesworldwide.Weseeriverbasinsinwhichflowsaremanagedtominimizetheimpactsofrainfallvariability;whereagriculturalproductivity,livelihoods,waterqualityandecosystemservicesareprotectedthroughreducedlanddegradation,controloferosionandpollution.Similarly,weseegovernanceandinstitutionalarrangementsthatprotectaccesstolandandwaterresourcesforthepoorandwhichrecognizetheimportanceofecosystemservicestoagriculture,otherwaterconsumersandtheenvironment.

7.1. ThecompellingneedforthisresearchAspopulationsgrowandincomesrise,resultinginmoredemandforstaplefoodsandwater‐intensivehigh‐valuefoodproducts,thedemandforwaterincreases.Non‐agriculturalwaterneedsincreasesimilarly,whilesomewatermustbereservedtomaintainessentialfreshwaterecosystemservices.Approximately3billionpeopleexperiencevariousformsofwaterscarcityalready(CA,2007),andinthe2050worldof9billionpeople,waterscarcitymaybecometheunpleasant‘norm.’Themagnitude,typeandextentofscarcityvaryacrossriverbasins.Somebasinsareclosedandwaterisover‐allocated(physicalwaterscarcity).Othersareopenwithrelativelyabundantwaterresourcesthatcanbe(butarenotyet)harnessedthroughimprovedinfrastructure(economicwaterscarcity).Insome,institutionslimitaccesstocertaingroupsandexcludeothers(institutionalwaterscarcity).Landdegradationreducesagriculturalsystemproductivity,threatenslivelihoods,jeopardizesecosystemservicesandreduceswaterquality–exacerbatingtheeffectsofwaterscarcity.Climatechange,combinedwithlanddegradationandwaterscarcity,causesgreaterspatialandtemporalvariabilityinwateravailability,therebyincreasingriskandreducingresilience.Thisvariabilityofanalreadyscarceresourceisthemajornaturalissueforagriculturalwaterandoverallwaterresourcesmanagementinallareaswithphysicalwaterscarcity(Figure1.4onpage19).7.2. BuildingonasolidresearchfoundationPreviousbasins‐relatedresearchhasbeensignificant.Examplesofpreviousresearchonriverbasinsaregivenbelow(seeAppendix1bfordetailsontheresearchfoundationofwaterscarcity).OpenandclosedbasinsSeckler(1996)introducedthe‘basinview’intoagriculturalwatermanagement.Subsequentstudiesexaminedvariousstagesofbasinwaterresourcesdevelopmentuptowater‘reallocation’atthetimeof‘basinclosure,’introducedbasinwateraccountingproceduresandtheuseofremote

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sensingandmodelingtoolsforintegratedassessmentofwateravailabilityandaccess(Kelleretal.,1996;Seckleretal.,1998;Molden,1997;KiteandDroogers2000;Molle,2003).Theconceptsofclosedbasinsandglobalwaterscarcityhadsignificantimpactworldwideandwerefurtherillustratedinindividualbasinsglobally:diagnosingcasesofphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity,exploringthesocietalfactorsleadingtobasinclosure,examiningfuturescenariosofwateravailabilitywithin‐builtenvironmentalwaterallocations,andexploringbothdriversofchangeonbasinwaterresourcesandtheresponseoptionsinthefaceofwaterscarcity(Amarasingheetal.,2004,2008;Biggsetal.,2007;GiordanoandVilholth2007;McCartneyandArranz2007;Venotetal,(2008);CA,2007;Smakhtinetal.,2004;MolleandWester,2009).WaterstorageKelleretal.,(2000)formulatedthemainprinciplesofsustainablewaterstoragedevelopment.IWMIhassubsequentlyrecommendedthatallformsofwaterstorageincluding–largedams,throughsmallreservoirs,rainwaterharvesting,groundwaterandconjunctiveuseofwetlands–shouldbeconsideredinthedevelopmentoflocallyappropriatesolutionstoprovideinsuranceagainstdroughtandrainfallvariability(McCartneyandSmakhtin,2010).TradeoffsatbasinlevelMolle(2003),Molleetal.(2005);Ringler(2001),Caietal.(2003),Smakhtinetal.(2007)andmanyothershaveexploredtradeoffsandwater‐allocationscenariosamongvariousbasinwaterusers.AdaptiveriverbasinmanagementLankfordetal.(2007)formulatedanadaptiveframeworkforriverbasinmanagementindevelopingcountries,andSadoffandGrey(2002)developedtheconceptofbenefit‐sharinginriverbasinmanagement.WateranddevelopmentchallengesRecentCPWFresearch,throughanumberofbasinfocalprojects(Cooketal.,2009),identifiedarangeofdevelopmentchallengesinseveraloftheworld’slargestriverbasins.Theyfoundthatimprovedwaterproductivitywasoftenthebasisofeconomicdevelopment,butanalysisofbasinconditionsshowsacomplexdynamicbetweendevelopmentprocessesandthenaturalresourcestheyconsume.Thisdynamiccanpushriverbasins,orpartsofthem,beyondthelevelatwhichecosystemservicesofwaterprovision,foodproduction,energyandotherscanbedeliveredsustainably.Thisraisesproblemsofpotentialconflictoverlimitedresourcesamongcommunitieswithinriverbasins.Analternativesituationoccurswhenresourcesareeffectivelyunderdeveloped.Insuchcases,povertyisassociatedwithlowproductivityoflandandwater.

7.3. ThecompellingrolefortheCGIARRiverbasinmanagementindevelopingcountriesisgenerallyinitsinfancy.TheCGIARcanmustertherangeofdisciplinaryapproachesandhastheabilitytointegratetheseinawaythathasnotyetbeenachievedbynationalinstitutionsthattendtofocusonindividualissues.TheCGIARcanalsohelpfledglingriverbasinauthoritiescompiledataandinformationvitaltoevidence‐based

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decision‐makingandwaterallocationprocedures.Thisisregionallycriticalgiventhesignificantnumberoftransboundaryriverbasins.TheCGIARhasexperienceinbasin‐,sub‐basin‐andlandscape‐levelinnovationsinlandandwatermanagement(notjustplot‐andfarm‐levelinnovations);intheintroductionofbenefit‐sharingmechanismsthatfeaturenegotiationsamongupstreamanddownstreamwaterusers;andinanticipatingandmeasuringthewhole‐basin,cross‐scaleconsequences–includingconsequencesforecosystemservices–ofmodificationsinwaterallocationandlandscapemanagement.Furthermore,theCGIARcandrawlessonsfromgovernanceandmanagementapproachesinbasinsindevelopedandemergingeconomies(e.g.theColoradointheUnitedStatesandMexico,theYellowRiverinChina,andtheMurray‐DarlinginAustralia)andcontributeknowledgeofwhatelementsmightbesuccessfullytransferredtoourtargetbasins.Finally,thestronglinkagesdevelopingbetweenCRP5andtheCRP7(Climatechangeforagricultureandfoodsecurity)givestheCGIARacriticalabilitytolinkclimatechangepredictionstoestimationsofwateravailability,variabilityandhowthesewillaffectbasinwaterresourcesandtheirallocation.ThisSRPwillbuildontheworkoftheCPWFanditspartners.Weaimtofurtherdeveloptheparadigmsforriverbasinmanagementandexplorehowimprovedandbetterintegratedinformationwillprovidepolicymakerswithcompellingevidenceonwhichtobasebasindevelopmentandmanagementdecisions.Werecognizethepoliticalissuesassociatedinland‐andwater‐useplanningandthetradeoffsthatcomeintoplaywhenpowerdevelopmentispittedagainstagricultureandtheenvironment.However,wealsorecognize,basedonpreviousIWMIandCPWFwork,thatcleversolutionscanbefoundtooptimizeresourceuse,andthatwateralsohastobeviewedinthecontextofgeneraldevelopmentissuesratherthaninisolation.Successfulexamplesofpreviousworkinclude‘waterbanking’intheFerghanaValleyinCentralAsia(capturingofhydropowerwaterreleasesinwinterandstoringtheminaquifersforsubsequentsummerirrigation),multipleusesystemsinsouthernAfrica,paymentforenvironmentalservicesinSouthAmericanAndesgroupofbasins,andinnovativerice–shrimpsystemstocopewithincreasingsalinityinpartsoftheMekongDeltainVietnam.Similarly,CRP5willbegintoaddresssomeofthebasindevelopmentchallengesdescribedbyCooketal.(2009).7.4. ThescopeanddepthoftheopportunityGiventheincreasingpressureonwaterandlandresourcessomesignificantproblemsmustbeovercome.Forexample:• Waterscarcity

Theoftenpreferredresponsetowaterscarcityistoimproveorincreasewatersupply.Thedevelopmentofnewsupplysources(bothconventionalandunconventional)isoftenconstrainedbythecostandarangeofhydrological,socialandpoliticalrisks,whichnegativelyaffectthelivelihoodsofthepoor(WorldCommissiononDams,2000).Theserisksarenotalwayswellunderstoodandquantified.Negativeconsequencesofinvestmentsinwatersupply

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infrastructurearealltoooftentransferredtothepoorestandmostvulnerablegroups,totheenvironment,andtothenextgenerations.

• Waterresourcesvariability

Waterresourcesvariability–intimeandspace–remainsacriticalprobleminwatermanagement,andhencesustainableagricultureandfoodproductionworldwide.Thisproblemisincreasingwithclimatechange.Sociallyandecologicallyresponsibleapproachestomanagingthisvariabilityarerequired.Thesewillincludedeveloping,managinganddiversifyingsupply,water‐storageinfrastructureanddistributionnetworks

• Coordinatingwaterandlandmanagement

Waterandlandmanagementareinherentlylinked.Land‐usechangeandlossofagriculturalbiodiversity,drivenbypopulationandeconomicgrowth,haspronouncedimpactsonwater.Issuesofsedimentationduetosoilerosion,soilandwatersalinization,andpollutionstronglylinkthisSRPwiththeRainfedSystems,IrrigatedSystems,andResourceRecoveryandReuseSRPs.ThisSRPcanhelpassesstheconsequencesforecosystemservicesoflandandwatermanagementinnovationsintroducedbyotherSRPs–andpossiblyotherCRPs.Managingland,waterandagriculturalbiodiversityinwaysthatbenefitthepoorandmaintainorreduceimpactsonecosystemsservicesremainsoneofthemainbasindevelopmentchallenges.

• Dwindlingresources

Anothercommonresponsetowaterscarcityistoproducemorewithfewerresources.Landandwaterproductivityremainlowerthantheycouldbe.Caseswhereimprovementsinbotharepossible,andmeansofimprovementneedtobeidentifiedandpursued.Thereisaclearlackofup‐scalingofpromisinginterventions–e.g.fromirrigatedorrainfedagriculture–tothebasinscale.Agriculturalintensificationinanidealworldshouldaimtodoubleproductiononhalfthearea.Theimpactsofintensificationonwaterresourcesandhumanhealthneedtobeunderstood,asdoestheroleofdiversityanddiversificationinincreasingwater‐useefficiency.

• Competitionforwaterresources

Onechallengeforriverbasinmanagementcomesfromthedefactoreallocationofwateroutofagriculturetourbanandindustrialuses.Whilethisisingeneraladministeredcentrallywithlittletransparency,thereisaneedtobetteridentifytheimpactsofsuchreallocation,andhowthesecanbemitigated.

• Environmentalwaterallocations

Globalinterestinenvironmentalwaterallocationsisgrowingrapidly.ExamplesincludetheMurray‐DarlingBasininAustralia,andtheEuropeanUnion,wheretheWaterFrameworkDirectiveattemptstorestore“goodecologicalstatus”ofEuropeanrivers.However,this‘new’issueexertspressureonconventionalusesofwater,particularlyagriculture,andparticularlyinthedevelopingworld,wherefoodproductionisthenumberonepriority.Noecologicallyrelevantthresholdsforsurfaceorgroundwateruseexistorareimplementedindevelopingcountries.ThisSRPwilllookathowenvironmentalflowscancoexistwithotherwateruses.

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• Lackofgooddata

Measuredreliabledata(thatreflectnaturalvariability)onanywatercomponentremainlacking.Goodpolicyandmanagementmustbebasedonsoundscientificdata.Themaximof‘ifyoucan’tmeasureit,youcan’tmanageit’isnevertruerthanforwaterresourcesmanagement.ThisSRPwillconsiderdataneedsintargetbasins,andwillalsolinkstronglywiththeInformationSystemsSRPtodeliverregional‐scalegenericassessmentsofwateravailabilityandvariability,andfactorssuchasdroughtandfloodrisks.

• Transboundarybasins

TransboundarybasinsaredominantfeaturesofthewaterlandscapeinbothAsiaandAfrica(Wolfetal.,1999).Thesebasinsarehometosignificantnumbersoftheworld’spoor,andaresourcesofinternationalandinterstatecooperationaswellasconflict.Developingeffectivegovernancestructuresandunderstandingandmanagingriverflowvariabilityinthesebasinswillbekeystopeaceaswellasagriculturalandeconomicdevelopmentandthuspovertyreduction.

Theabovearejustafewproblemareasandresearchhypothesesthatneedtobeaddressed.Testingtheseinaselectionoftargetgeographicalareas,aswellasglobally,willdemonstratehowandwherewecanprovetheoverarchingthesesthat1)agriculturalproductioncanbeintensified,diversifiedandexpandedwithoutfurtherdegradationofthenaturalresourcebaseandsupportingecosystems,and2)itispossibletoimprovewatergovernance,institutionsandmanagementsothattheimpactofwaterscarcityandvariabilityarereduced.

7.5. OurTheoryofChangeforimprovedmanagementofwaterresourcesThereareseveralentrypoints(allhavingbothlandandwaterdimensions)thatcanbeusedtoincreasethemagnitude,valueandequitablesharingofecosystemservicesandbenefitsinandfromriverbasins.1. Understandandconsiderresourcevariabilityinbasinmanagement

Most,ifnotall,watermanagementinterventionsaretriggerednotonlybylimitedwateravailabilityingeneral,butalsobyfluctuationsovertime(whichareincreasinggloballywithclimatechange).ThisSRPwillhighlighttheissueofvariabilityforpolicymakersandlandandwatermanagers.Researchcanprovideinformationtocharacterizevariabilityoflandandwaterresourcesintimeandspace,aswellasrecommendationsofhowbesttodealwithvariabilityatthebasinscale(inparticularthroughstorageandcombineduseofsurfaceandgroundwater).

2. Investinwaterinfrastructure

Thisissueiscloselyrelatedto1),above.Whereeconomicwaterscarcityprevails,thiscanimprovewateravailabilityformanyusers.Complementarylandandecosystemmanagementpracticesareneededtotakefulladvantageofinfrastructureinvestmentandtoavoidlanddegradation,oneconsequenceofwhichcanbeinfrastructuredeterioration.ThisSRPaimsto

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influencehowtheseinvestmentsaremade,bydirectadvicetokeyinvestorsorpolicymakers,orbydevelopingdecisionsupporttoolsthathighlightthetradeoffsandcomplementaritiesamongland,water,ecosystemservicesandoutcomesforrurallivelihoods.Arelatedstrategyistoinformandtherebyinfluencethediscourseoninvestments.Researchcanprovideinformationon:1)alternativeinvestmentscoveringarangeofinfrastructurepracticesandstorageoptions;2)magnitudeanddistributionofbenefitsandcostsfrominfrastructureinvestments(ofspecialinteresttoinvestorsconcernedwiththeirreputationalrisks);and3)theextenttowhichinfrastructurecanhelpmitigatetheeffectsofhydrologicalextremes(e.g.floodsanddroughts)whilemaintainingorenhancingsocialandenvironmentalgoals

3. Allocateandmanagebasinwaterandlandtoraiseproductivity,improveequityand

safeguardecosystemservicesWaterinabasincanbereallocatedfromlessproductivetomoreproductiveuseswithappropriateattentiontowaterrights,includingcompensation.Theproductivityofwaterindifferentusesisaffectedbylandmanagementpractices.ThisSRPwillinformandinfluencethediscourseaboutwaterrightsandwaterallocation.Researchcanprovidescience‐backedinformationonwaterproductivityfordifferentuses(andhowproductivityisaffectedbylandmanagementdecisions)andindicatorsforsuitablelevelsofcompensationforthosewhocedewaterrights.Waterresourcescanbereservedforenvironmentalflowsandresearchcanexaminetheconsequencesofthatforotherwaterusers.TherecentintroductionoftheseconceptsintodiscourseontheNationalRiverLinkingPlaninIndiawastheresultofgoodscienceandthe‘right’relationshipsthatjointlyensuredapositiveimpact.

4. Introduceandconsistentlyfollowtheprinciplesofbenefit­sharing

Upstreamlandandwatermanagementpracticesaffectthequantity,qualityandreliabilityofwateravailabletodownstreamusers(e.g.urbancommunities,fisheries,andhydropowerandirrigationfacilities).Institutionalinnovationscanbeintroducedwherebydownstreamusersinvestinsuitableupstreamlandandwatermanagementpractices,thusimprovingthelivelihoodsofupstreamcommunitiesandmaintainingessentialenvironmentalservices(e.g.reducingsedimentflow,andstabilizingdownstreamwateravailability).Researchcanquantifyupstream–downstreaminteractionsandinformthedesignofrelatedinstitutionalinnovations,whichcanthenbetestedwithstakeholdersandtheirachievementsmeasured.

5. Payattentiontothepoliticaleconomyofpolicyselection

Decision‐makingmustbeunderstoodwithintheexistinggovernanceframework,includingbothstateandnon‐stateactors,theirrespectivepoliticalpower,worldviewsandinterests.Hydrologicalandeconomicapproachesmayidentifythecosts,benefitsandrisksassociatedwithparticularcoursesofaction,buttheymayalsobeconfrontedwiththeexistingplayersandcoalitionsendowedwiththeirownresourcesandlogics.Thisopensthewayforresearchthatfacilitatesthedevelopmentanduseoftoolssuchasmulti‐stakeholderplatformsandothersociallearningtechniques.

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7.6. WherewewillworkTargetareaswillincludebasinsandbasingroupswithbothphysicalandeconomicwaterscarcity.Theoriginalsetwillcomprisesucheightbasins/groups:MekonginSouthEastAsia,IndusandGangesinSouthAsia,theAralSeaBasinsoftheSyrDaryaandAmuDaryainCentralAsia,TigrisandEuphratesintheMiddleEast,NileinEastandNorthAfrica,LimpopoandZambeziinSouthernAfrica,VoltaandNigerinWestAfrica,andtheAndesgroupofbasinsinLatinAmerica.Thesetargetareashavehighpotentialforpovertyalleviation,establishedpartnerships,solidtrackrecordsofpreviousCPWFandCGIARresearch,andgoodpotentialforoneormoreleversofchangetobeapplied.ThisSRPwillhowevernotlimititselfentirelytothesebasins/targetareas,butwillkeepaglobaloutlookcommensuratewithitsvision.7.7. LinkstootherCRPsandSRPsThisSRPwilllinkcloselywiththeIrrigatedSystemsSRPgiventhestrongconnectionbetweenirrigation,wateravailabilityandwaterallocation.TheSRPwillalsohavemajorlinkageswithworkinCRP7(climatechange)giventheneedforinformationontheimpactsofclimatechangeonhydrology.Theavailabilityofdown‐scaledclimatepredictionswillbeveryimportantforbasinmodeling.SimilarlytheSRPwillbuildlinkageswiththeRainfedSystemsandInformationSystemsSRPstolinkterrestrialchangesinlandcovertohydrologicalimpactsviasentinelsites.Fromapolicyperspective,thisSRPwilllinktoCRP2(Policies,institutions,andmarketstostrengthenfoodsecurityandincomesfortheruralpoor).WewillalsolinkwithrelevantpartsofCRP1(agriculturalsystemsindry,humidandaquaticenvironments)tocoordinateon‐farmNRMandbasinresponses.7.8. WhatwewillachieveinthefirstfiveyearsInthenextfiveyears,athisSRPwilldevelopamuchbetterunderstandingofhowbest,indifferentsettings,todealwithwaterresourcesavailabilityandvariabilityintimeandspace–theprimaryissuesinwaterresourcesmanagementglobally.Howlandandwaterareusedinspecificlocationscanhaveprofoundimpactsonpeopleandenvironment.ThisSRPaimstoquantifytheimpactsofdifferentlandusesandmanagementpracticesonwaterprocesses,flowsandquality,onlivelihoods,andonecosystemservices.Thisinformationwillbeusedtohelpwaterauthoritiesadoptnewpoliciesforlandandwaterplanningandmanagementthatwillassistinpovertyreductionandpositiveenvironmentaloutcomesinmajortargetareas.WewillintegrateintootherSRPsandrelevantCRPsthecumulativeimpactsofandchangestoagriculturalactivitiesatbasinscale.Belowareafewexamplesofthekeyproblemsetsandassociatedresearchdirectionsthatwewillpursueinsomeofourtargetareas.

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AndesGroupofbasins–LatinAmericaBenefit­sharingmechanismsasawatermanagementtool.PreviousCPWFresearchsuggestedthatthesocio‐politicalenvironmentisripeforpushingthefull‐scaleadoptionofpaymentforenvironmentalservicesinthisregion.Theideaisthatrich(er)downstreamwaterusersco‐investinimprovedupstreamlandandwatermanagementsothatallusersbenefit.Benefitsincludehigherwaterproductivity(upstream),improvedlivelihoods,reducedlanddegradationandamorestablesupplyofhigherqualitywaterdownstream–hencereducedsiltationandpollution,improvedirrigation,etc.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.1.GangesandIndus–SouthAsiaIntegratingenvironmentalwaterallocationsandclimatechangeimpactswithwaterresourcesdevelopmentClimatechangeimpactonglaciersandsnowintheAsianTowerareamongstthehottesttopicsdebatedatpresent,buttheimpactsremainlargelyunclearinbothbasins.Inparallel,IWMI’spreviousworkinIndiainthefieldofenvironmentalflowmanagementhasstirredthenationalinteresttothetopicandhasahighpotentialforimpactinthenearfuture.Thisresearchwillincludeamixofassessmentsofglacierandsnowimpactsonwateravailabilitydownstream,optimalwaterallocationscenariosforthefuture,newmodelsforconjunctiveuseofsurfacewaterandgroundwater,andassessmentsofenvironmentalflowimpactsfromincreasedgroundwateruseonriversandfloodinparticular.TheworkwilllinkcloselywithCRP7,underwhichtheprobableimpactsofclimatechangeareassessed.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.2.Mekong–SoutheastAsiaHarmonizingthewater–energy­environmentnexusTheMekongisoneofafewmajorriverbasinsinAsiathatremainrelativelyunregulated.AhotissueintheMekongis,however,plannedhydropowerdevelopment.Thisoutputwillincludethetoolstoassistwithmanagingfuturereservoirsandtheircascadeswithinclusionofecologicalandlivelihoodconsiderations,quantifiedimpactsofpossiblehydropowerdevelopmentscenariosonlivelihoods,andquantifiedalternativescenariosforlarge‐scaleirrigationdevelopmentandalternativeenergysources.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.3.Nile–EastandNorthAfricaManagingwaterresourcestoreducepovertyandimprovewetlandmanagementinupstreamcountriesUpstreamNilecountriesgeneratemostoftheNileflow,butreceivethesmallestshareofbenefitsfromit.Workherewillincludescience‐backedplansforoptimalwaterstoragedevelopment(currentlyalmostnon‐existent),up‐scaledinformationforwaterproductivityimprovementinrainfedareas,andquantifiedservicesofbasinwetlandecosystems–allinthecontextofacomplextransboundaryperspective.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.4.

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Table7.1.ImpactPathway:Benefit‐sharingmechanismsasawatermanagementtoolinthesmallAndeanbasinsIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto

SRFoutcomes• InmanysmallbasinsintheAndes,conflictsamongwaterusersareincreasinglycommon.Downstreamcommunities,lowlandcommercialfarmersandhighlandirrigatedfarmerswantyear‐roundavailabilityofcleanwater.Highlandurbanareasneed,andhighlandmineswantwaterfororeprocessingwiththefreedomtodischargepollutedwaterbackintorivers.Highlandrainfedfarmersandherderswanttoexpandandintensifyproductionsystems,althoughthismayleadtoovergrazinganderosionwithimplicationsdownstream.Hydropoweroperatorsneedtheflexibilitytorapidlychangethevolumeofwaterflowingthroughturbinestomeetpowerdemand.However,alpinecommunitiesandthosewhovaluebiodiversitywantalpinelakelevelstoremainstableandhighlandnaturereservesproperlymaintained.

Improvedenergy,foodandenvironmentalsecurityintheAndescanbeachievedthrough(1)rewardingforpositiveandpenalizingfornegativeincentives,(2)investmentsinwaterstorageandwatertreatment,and(3)broker‘benefit‐sharingmechanisms’.Thelatterarewhendownstreamwaterusersco‐investinhighlandmanagementfocusingonpracticesthatimprovehighlandcommunitylivelihoodsandstabilizewateravailabilityfordownstreamconsumers.Allthreeleversrequirestrategiesthatintegratepolicies,institutionalarrangements,technologiesandstakeholderengagement.

Informationandtools• Agoodunderstandingoflandandwatermanagementpracticesbydifferentstakeholders,andnegativeandpositiveexternalitiesofsuchpracticesfordownstreamwaterusersandtheoverallproductionofecosystemservices

• Agoodunderstandingofthedistributionalandcross‐scaleconsequences,includingcostsandbenefits,ofalternativestrategies

• datasetsandtoolstosupportalloftheabove.

RangeofsolutionsStrategiesforinvestinginwaterinfrastructure,treatmentandbenefit‐sharing,withanunderstandingoftheperformanceofdifferentstrategiesundervariousconditions.ImprovedcapacityAgoodunderstandingofhowtoencouragestakeholderstodefineproblems,targetsolutions,understandtheirconsequences,andnegotiateevidence‐basedbenefit‐sharingagreements.

• Nationalandprovincialgovernmentsestablishandimplementpoliciesfavorabletotheintroductionofevidence‐basednegotiationstodevelopsuitablebenefit‐sharingmechanisms

• Institutionalarrangementstosharewater,orwater‐relatedbenefits

• Investmentsmadeinwaterstorage,managementandtreatment,withcostssharedequitablybystakeholders

• Improvementsmadeinlandandwatermanagementbyfarmersandherdersthatimprovelivelihoods,stabilizewaterflow,reducesedimentflow,andproduceandsupportawiderangeofecosystemservices.

• Livelihoodsofpoorhighlandcommunitiesimproved

• Greaterandmorestableavailabilityofwatertodownstreamcommunities

• Increasedandmoreflexiblepowergeneration

• Reducedwaterpollutionfromminesandurbanareas

• Improvedpreservationofalpinenaturereservesincludinglakes

• Reducedwater‐relatedconflict.

• SustainableNRM;povertyreduction

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Table7.2.ImpactPathway:IntegratingenvironmentalwaterallocationsandclimatechangeimpactswithwaterresourcesdevelopmentintheGangesandIndusRiverBasinsIssue Leversof

changeResearchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto

SRFoutcomes• TheenvironmentalandspiritualsignificanceofGangesforIndiaisveryhigh,asisthedesiretokeepithealthy,despitemassivedevelopmentplans.ClimatechangeimpactonglaciersandsnowintheAsianTower,coupledwithprojectedchangesinmonsoonpatternareamongthehottesttopicsdebatedatpresent,buttheimpactsremainlargelyunclearinbothIndusandGanges.Bothbasinsarehometosome600millionpeople.Waterproductivityimprovementinbothbasinsishighontheagenda.Waterresourcesplanningandmanagementiscarriedoutinconditionsoflimitedornoaccesstolimitedornodataonvirtuallyanycomponentofwaterbalance.TransboundarycooperationbetweenIndiaandPakistan,andIndiaandBangladesh,needssignificantimprovement.

• Nomatterhowuncertaintheprojectionsare,thegeneralbiophysicaltrendinbothbasinsseemstobetowardsthesignificantincreaseinwaterresourcesvariability.Understandingthistrendandcommunicatingittoresponsibleauthoritiesisimperative,asbothbasinswillbecomemuchmorevulnerable,andbothmaynotbeabletosupporttheirpopulationsin20years’time.

Waterresources:• ImpactofclimatechangeonriverflowsandgroundwaterrechargeintheIndusandtheGanges;availabilityofsurface/groundwaterresourcesindifferentpartsofbothbasins

• Quantificationofdisastrousevents(e.g.flooding),theirimpactsonagriculturalproduction,andformulationofpreventivestrategies.

Foodsecurity:• Roleofchanged/improvedwaterresourcesincontinuedintensificationoffoodproduction.

• Assessmentofregionalhotspotsandwaystoimprovelowwaterproductivity.

• Basin‐wide,interstatehydro‐economicmodelsthatallowthesimulationofoptimalwater‐allocationscenariostomeetfuturewaterdemands.

• Standarddatasetsandinstitutionalarrangementsacceptedbyallbasinstates,onwhichtransparentdecisionsonwaterandbenefits‐sharingcanbemade

Environment:• Environmentalflowsforbothbasinsincludedintodevelopmentplanning;

• Thresholdsforgroundwaterdevelopmentinunderusedpartsofbothbasinsestablished.

• Individualripariancountriesandregionalbodiesuseknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicy.

• Nationalplanningbodiesanddevelopmentbankssupportproposedstrategies.

• Newwater‐sharingarrangementsconcerningtheHimalayanregion

• Increaseddonorcoordinationandimproveduseofresources

• Enhancedfoodsecurityforover170millionruralinhabitantsinbothbasins

• Reducedvulnerabilitytoclimate‐inducedwaterextremesinthebasin.

• Bettercooperationandreducedwaterconflictintheregion.

• Improvedhealthoftwoofthemajorendangeredrivers(IndusandGanges)oftheworld.

• Foodsecurity• Povertyreduction

• SustainableNRM

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Table7.3.ImpactPathway:Harmonizingthewater–energy–environmentnexusintheMekongBasinIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto

SRFoutcomesTheMekonghostsarangeofbiophysicalandsocioeconomicattributes,reflectingthedegreeofeconomicdevelopmentofcountries.Economicgrowthtriggersthedevelopmentofwaterresourcesforhydropowerproductionandassociatedrelatedareas.TheMekonghoweverremainsyetoneofthefewunregulatedlargeriverbasinsintheworld,butforhowlong?Changesintheflowregimeduetowaterinfrastructuredevelopmentwillhavebothpositive(waterforirrigation,floodcontrol)andnegative(declineinfisheries,potentialsalt‐waterintrusion)impacts.Balancingthesecompetingusesisanimperativeininfluencingthebasindevelopmenttrajectorythatensureequityandsustainability.

TherecentpushformainstreamdamsatXayburyandDonSahongaddsanewlevelofurgencytounderstandingimpactsofwaterinfrastructuredevelopment.Improvedunderstandingofbasinhydrologyoverthelast10yearsprovidesthebasisto–toincorporateecological,socialandeconomicconsequencesandtradeoffsofbasindevelopment.Structuresfortransboundarycooperation,suchastheMekongRiverCommission(MRC),providepathwaysforputtingnewknowledgeintopractice

TransboundarycooperationNewtoolsforlandandwaterresourcesmonitoringusingspacetechnologiesandpublicdomaindatatodemonstratedata‐sharingbenefitsfortransboundarymanagementLivelihoods• Developmentandassessmentof

livelihoodstrategiesforcommunitiesaffectedbylargewaterresourcesdevelopment

• Practicestoenhanceproductivityofseasonalfloodwatersforthebenefitsofthepoor(rice‐fishsystems,recessionagriculture,maintenanceofwildcaptureandharvest)

• Managementofsaline/freshwatertoenhancelivelihoodsinMekongdelta

Environment• Improvedwatershedmanagementto

reducesedimentgenerationthrough'smart'incentivestoenhanceadoptionofconservingpractices

• Quantificationoftheimpactofwaterresourcesinfrastructureonfisheriesandaquaticresourcesandpotentialmitigationstrategies

Trade‐offsEconomicandenvironmentalevaluationofmultipurposedamsinmeetingenergy,livelihoodandenvironmentaltargets

• Mekongbasincountriesandregionalorganizations,suchastheMRCandtheprivatesector,useknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicyandinfluencethedecision‐makingprocessinwaterinfrastructuredevelopment;e.g.reservoirplanningexplicitlyincludesenvironmentalandlivelihoodparameters

• Developmentpartnerssupportandadoptedthesestrategies

• Freeflowofwaterdataintheentirebasin

• Waterandelectricitysupplyimprovedforabout50millionpeopleintheBasin.

• MekongbecomesthefirstlargeriverbasininAsia,wheresustainablewaterandlandmanagementpoliciesareintroducedbeforemassiveadverseenvironmentalandsocialimpactsmanifestthemselves

• SustainableNRM

• Povertyreduction

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Table7.4.ImpactPathway:ManagingwaterresourcestoreducepovertyandimprovewetlandmanagementintheNileRiverBasinIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto

SRFoutcomes• UpstreamNilecountriesgeneratemostoftheNileflow,butreceivethelowestshareofbenefitsfromit.Theyareverypoorandveryvulnerabletoclimatechange.Ethiopia’sagriculturalGDP,forexample,fluctuatesalmostinperfectcorrelationwithannualprecipitation.Agriculturalintensification,irrigationandhydropowerdevelopmentinSudanandEthiopia–whichareneededurgentlyforpovertyalleviation–willaffectdownstreamflowsandwetlandsystems(e.g.Sudd)thatarecriticaltolocallivelihoods.Strategiesareneededtooptimizeupstreamdevelopmentandwateraccesswhileminimizingdownstreamimpacts.Allofthismustoccurinacomplextransboundarycontext

Currentandproposedinvestments(e.g.TekezeandMerowedams)andpopulationgrowthmeanthatrapidchangeisalreadyunderway;thechallengeandopportunityistoinfluencedevelopmentthroughbetterunderstandingofwherebenefitsfromwateraccrue.Themajorchangeleverisinvestmentinwaterstorage,buthowwillthis,ifithappens,affectwetlandecosystems,forexample?

HydrologyandWaterResources:• Science‐backedplansforoptimalwatermanagementandstorageinupstreamNilecountries,includinggroundwateroptions–allwithimplicationstodownstreamwetlandsystems

• ManagementstrategiesformajorwetlandsystemsofsouthernSudan(Sudd,Machar,BahrelGhazal)

Livelihoods• Strategiestoimprovewaterproductivityanddecreasedroughtriskinrainfedagriculturalandpastoralsystems

• High‐potentialwaterandlandinterventionsforpovertyreductionintheBlueNileBasin–basedonanalysisofwateravailability,accessandproductivityinEthiopianHighlands;

EcosystemservicesQuantificationofrelativeimportanceofecosystemservicesfromtheriverandwetlandsasthebasisfornegotiatingtradeoffsamongsectorsandcountries

• SustainableproductionsystemsinrainfedareasandmajorwetlandareasofsouthernSudanandtheEquatorialLakesregion

• Reductionofvulnerabilitytodroughtintheupperbasinthroughimprovedwaterstorageandaccesstogroundwater

• Basin‐widecooperationinidentifyingdevelopmentprojectswithtransboundarybenefits

• Developmentbanksanddonorssupportproposedstrategies

• Significantincreasesinfoodproductionfromrainfedagriculturalandpastoralsystems,andreducedincidenceoffamineinEthiopiaandSudan

• ReductionintensionbetweenupperbasinandEgyptbyidentifyingupstreamdevelopmentoptionswithminimumdownstreamimpacts

• MoreequitabledistributionofbenefitsfromNilebasinwater

• Protectionofkeywetlandsites

• Wetlandprotectionleadingtosustainablemanagementofnaturalresources

• Povertyalleviationthroughbenefit‐sharing

• Foodsecurityviaincreasedproductivity

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AmuDaryaandSyrDarya–CentralAsiaTransboundarywatermanagementsolutionsintransitioneconomiesSyrDaryaandAmuDaryaaretheonlytwomajorwatersourcesinCentralAsia.PoliticalrelationsbetweenthecountriesinCentralAsiaaredrivenbyaccesstothewaterinthesetworivers.Keyherewillbeanalysesofpastandcurrentwater‐relatedbenefit‐sharingagreements,andchangesinthem(beforeandafterindependence);assessmentsofpossibleoptionsforwaterreallocationwithenvironmentalconsequences;transparentdecisionsupporttoolsforbasin‐wideassessmentoftheseoptions;possibledata‐sharingagreements;illustrationofthebenefitsofanas‐yetcompletelyunderusedresource–groundwater–inagriculture;andanalysisofthewidercostsandbenefitsofsharingthewaterintheSyrDarya/AmyDarya,includingpotentialnewplayerssuchAfghanistan.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.5.VoltaandNiger–WestAfricaWaterstoragetoreduceregionaldroughtriskPreviousIWMIandCPWFresearchintheregiondemonstratedthepotentialofshallowgroundwaterandsmallreservoirsforagriculturalproductionandpovertyalleviation.Thesubsequentresearchwilldeliverguidelinesonbestpossiblecombinationofstorageoptions(e.g.varioussizereservoirsandgroundwater)toalleviatedroughtimpacts–themajorclimaticfactorhamperingagriculturaldevelopmentintheregion.ClosecollaborationwithCRP7(climatechange),andCRP1.1.(drylands)isenvisaged.TheimpactpathwayforthisworkisdescribedinTable7.6.ZambeziandLimpopo–SouthernAfricaHarvestingtransboundaryaquifersSouthernAfricaischaracterizedbyhighlevelofsurface‐waterresourcesdevelopment,and,ironically,ratherlimitedamountsofsurfacewater.Apushforregionalagriculturemaybeexpectedfromgroundwaterdevelopmentinlargetransboundaryaquifers.Thisresearchwillincludeassessmentofgroundwateravailabilityintheseaquifers,establishingecologicalthresholdsforgroundwateruse(stillpossiblepriortomajorharvestingofgroundwater),andrelevantgovernancemodels.

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Table7.5.ImpactPathway:Transboundarywatermanagementsolutionsintransitioneconomies:AmuDaryandSyrDariaBasinsIssue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potential

impactContributiontoSRFoutcomes

• SovieteracooperationinCentralAsia(AmuandSyrDaryaBasins)largelycollapsedafter1991,resultinginmisuseofwaterforbothagricultureandenergy,withsubstantialenvironmentalcosts.Yetasetofpastagreementsisstillinplace,andirrigationinfrastructurehasgonelargelyunnoticeddespitehugelocalandinternationalinvestmentstocraftnewbasin‐scalewatermanagementplans–e.g.forSyrDarya.Themajorplansformassiveinter‐basinwatertransfersfromRussiatoCentralAsiaarebackontheregionalagenda.Afghanistanmayalsoenterthestagesoon.Drawinglessonsfrompastfunctioningagreements,andquantifyingpossibletrendswillpavethewaytoimprovedbasinmanagement.Italsopointstothebenefitsandlimitsofbasin‐scaleapproaches.

• Coordinatedmanagementcanimproveenergy,foodandenvironmentalsecurityinthebasins.Butforittohappen,allpartiesneedtobenefit.Onewaytochangeistolearnfromnaturalandsocialenvironmentsinwhichbrightspotsofcooperation(ifany)occurred.Yet,consideringthetransitionalnatureofregionaleconomies,identifying‘secondbest’solutionsforimmediateimplementationisanotherstrategy.Thistwo‐tierapproachmayprovidethebreakthroughthattheregionhasbeenmissingforover20years.

Transboundarycooperation:InventoryandanalysisofpastandcurrentwaterrelatedagreementsIrrigation/livelihoods• Analysisofregionalchanges/variationsinwatercontrol,andtheirimpactonpossiblecooperation,povertyalleviation,equityandgender

• Demonstrationofbenefitsofgroundwateruseinagricultureforimmediatewaterscarcityrelief

EnvironmentAssessmentsofenvironmentalflowimpacts(withorwithoutcooperation)includingthoseontheAralSea,andofindustrial/urbaneffluentsandagriculturalreturnflowondrinkingwaterOverallcostandbenefitsAnalysisofthewidercostsandbenefitsofsharingthewaterincluding:agriculture,energy,environment,anddrinkingsupply

• Regionalstatesandorganizationsuseknowledgeandrecommendationstocreatepolicy

• Developmentbankssupportproposedstrategies

• IncreasedDonorcoordination/decreasedaidfragmentation

• Institutionalizationofenforceabletransboundarycooperation

• LivelihoodsecurityoftheFerganaValley’s10millioninhabitantsincreased

• Waterandelectricitysupplyimprovedfortheregion

• Environmentaldamagetobasinsreduced

• Lessonsappliedtootherbasinsintheregionandbeyond

• SignificantcontributionstolivelihoodandsustainableNRMSLOs

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Table7.6.ImpactPathway:WaterstoragetoreduceregionaldroughtriskintheVoltaandNigerRiverBasins(applicabletomostofAfrica)Issue Leversofchange Researchoutputs Outcomes Potentialimpact Contributionto

SRFoutcomesInabilitytopredictandmanageclimateandhencewatervariabilityliesbehindmuchoftheprevailingpovertyandfoodinsecurityinWestAfrica.Decliningrainfallsincethemid‐1970s,hasexacerbatedtheproblemanditisanticipatedthatclimatechange,whichwillmostlikelyincreasethefrequencyandseverityofdroughts,willdosofurther.PreviousIWMIandCPWFresearchhasshownthataccesstogroundwaterandarangeofwaterstorageoptionscancontributetoincreasedfoodsecurityandbetterlivelihoods.However,asarule,paststorageinterventionshavefailedforavarietyofreasons.Pastwaterstoragedevelopmenthasoccurredinapiecemealfashion,largelythroughlocalinitiativesandwithminimalplanning.

Investmentintovariousformsofstorageisthemainpathtosustainabilityandfoodsecurityintheregion.Itwillbeimperativetodevelopandteststructuredandscience‐backedandtestedshort‐andlong‐termbasin‐widestorageplans,takingintoaccountallpossibleandsocioeconomicallyacceptableandfeasibleplans,ratherthanfollowanad‐hocpath.

Improvedunderstandingofstorageefficacy:• Insightsintotheneed,suitabilityandeffectivenessofdifferentwaterstorageoptions,underdifferentagro‐ecologicalandsocioeconomicconditions(i.e.whatworkswhere,whendoesitworkandwhydoesitwork).

• Betterunderstandingofsynergiesandtradeoffsassociatedwithcombinationsofdifferentstoragetypes.

• Insightsintohowdifferentgroundwaterandsurfacestorageoptionsaremanagedintermsofaccess,institutionsandthedistributionofbenefits.

Livelihoods:Genderedevaluationofthedirectandindirectimpactsofdifferentwaterstorageoptionsonlivelihoodstrategies,povertyalleviationandequityImprovedplanningandmanagement:Toolsandapproachesforbetterintegratedplanningandmanagementofsurfacestorageandgroundwater

• WestAfricanstatesandorganizationsliketheVoltaBasinAuthorityuseknowledgeandrecommendationstoinformwaterresourcepolicy.

• WestAfricanstatesandriverbasinauthoritiesdevelopwaterstoragestrategiestobetterplanandmanagethefullrangeofwaterstorageoptions,inanintegratedfashion,factoringinclimatechangetoo.

• WBandAfDBsupportproposedwaterstoragestrategiesandimbedthemfirmlyintheirinvestmentpolicies

• IncreasedcoordinationbetweenNGOs,governmentsandbasinplannersinstoragedevelopment,andawarenessatalllevels

• Livelihoodsecurityandresilienceofaround120million(mostlyrural)inhabitantsintheVoltaandNigerRiverBasinsincreased.

• Lessonsappliedtootherbasinsintheregionandbeyond

• Povertyreduction

• Foodsecurity

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7.9. WhatwewillachieveinthesecondfiveyearsInyears6to10,lessonsfromtheaboveimpactpathwayswillbeusedtoextendsustainableland,waterandecosystemmanagementpracticesintootherwater‐stressedbasins.Significantattentionwillbegiventomonitoringtheimpactonecosystemservicesfromdiversifiedmanagementpractices,andtocooperationwiththeSRPonInformationSystemstodevelopregionalanalysesandinformationproductsondroughtrisk,soil‐waterstorage,environmentalflowrecommendationsandgroundwaterrechargepossibilities.

7.10. ExamplesofresearchquestionsWewilltestseveralhypothesesinthisSRP.Thefollowingareexamplesofthosehypotheses,alongwithassociatedresearchquestions.GuidinghypothesisWaterscarcitycanbealleviatedbyimprovedwatersupply,bymanagementofwaterdemandand,inparticular,byreducingwaterresourcesvariability.Researchquestions• Towhatextentiswaterphysically/economicallyscarceinabasin?• Howisscarcitytheresultofpastpolicydecisionsandhowcanitbepreventedfrom

becomingworse?• Howiswaterusedinabasin?Howmuchrecyclingisobservedandwhatisthescopefor

‘real’watersavings?• Whataretheappropriatebasin/regionalstrategiesforimprovedwatersupplyanddemand

managementconsideringparticularphysicalandsocio‐politicalcontexts• Whatarethehydrological,socio‐politicalandecologicalrisksassociatedwithwater

resourcesdevelopments,aswellasotherpolicyoptions,thatnegativelyaffectthelivelihoodsofthepoor?Howcantheybebestquantified?

• Howcangroundwaterabstractionbecontrolledandhowtointegratethecombinedusesofsurfaceandgroundwateratthebasinlevel?

• Howdoeswaterqualityaffectwateravailabilityforvarioususes?• Howcanhydrologicalextremes(droughtsandfloods)bebetterpredictedandmanagedto

minimizetheirnegativeimpactsonagriculture?• Whatarethebestwater‐storageoptionsformanagingwaterresourcesvariability?• Howbesttomanagewaterresourcesvariabilityintransboundaryriverbasins

(internationalorstateboundaries)?GuidinghypothesisRiverBasinscanbemanagedtomaximizethevalueofecosystemservicesandbenefits.Researchquestions• Howbesttoquantifyandmapvariousecosystemservicesandthecomponentsthatprovide

theseservicesinbasins/landscapes?• Howarewater‐relatedecosystemservicesfordifferentgroupsaffectedbyland

management?

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• Howcanecosystemservicesandbenefitsoflandandwaterbebestsharedacrosssectors,improvingthelivelihoodsofthepoor,fosteringgenderequity,andminimizingenvironmentalimpacts?

• Whatwaterandlandmanagementpracticesenhanceorcreateecosystemservicesforcurrentandfutureusetoreducepoverty?

• Whatcompositeofresearch,rules,monitoringandgovernanceisbestsuitedtoensurethatnegativeimpactsofaninterventioninonepartofabasinarenottransferredtoanother?

• Howtoensurethatinternationalagreementscontributetotheprotectionofecosystemservicesandpovertyalleviation?

GuidinghypothesisAgriculturalintensificationispossiblewithoutdetrimentalimpactsonwaterandland.Researchquestions• Whatarethelimitsofwaterproductivityimprovementindifferentgeographicalandsocio‐

politicalsettings,andhowcantheybeachieved?• Howtobestup‐scalepromisinginterventionsfromirrigatedorrainfedagriculturetothe

basin?• Whataretheimpactsofagriculturalintensificationanddiversificationonwaterresources?• Whatarethetradeoffsbetweenenvironmentalwaterallocationand‘conventional’usesof

water,particularlyagricultureinthedevelopingworld,wherefoodproductionisafirstpriority?

• Howbesttosetandimplementecologicallyrelevantthresholdsforsurfaceorgroundwateruseindevelopingcountries?

GuidinghypothesisGlobaldriversofchangecanbeexplicitlyaccountedforinbasinmanagement.Researchquestions• Whichdriversofchangearemostpronouncedindifferentgeographicalandsocio‐political

settings?• Howdovariousexternaldriversaffecttheavailabilityoflandandwater,andthemagnitude,

valueanddistributionofwater‐andland‐relatedecosystemservicesandbenefits?• Howcanmacroeconomic,tradeandagriculturalsectorpoliciesbeharnessedtosupport

enhancedwater,landandecosystemoutcomesforpovertyalleviation?• Whatarethehydrologicalandsocialdynamicsofcompetingwaterusesanddriversof

changewithinriverbasins/landscapes?• Whattoolscanbedevelopedtopredictandmanagechange?

7.11. ImplementationplanResearchwillbeconductedintargetbasinsthatrepresentdifferentpovertylevels,hydrologicalconditions,levelsandtypesofwaterscarcity,anddevelopmentandclosure,andwheretheCGIARalreadyhasastrongpresence.Byconductingstudiesacrossawiderangeofbasinsandlandscapestherearemultipleopportunitiesfor:

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• Newpartnershipswithrelevantinternationalresearchinstitutesandacademicinstitutions.• ComplementaritiesbetweenotherSRPsandCRPs.Examplesmayincludescalingupthe

findingsoftheIrrigationSystemsandRainfedSystemsSRPstolandscape/basinlevels;useofInformationSystemsSRPoutputsforbetterquantificationofbasinlandandwateravailabilityandecosystemservices;howupstreamdevelopmentswillimpactcoastalareas(linkwithCRP1.3);whatarethedownstreamimpactsofupstreamdevelopmentinhighlands(linkwithCRP1.1andCRP1.2),orhowtoadaptwaterstoragestructures,groundwateruseandbasingovernancetoincreasingwaterandclimatevariabilityunderprogressiveclimatechange(CRP7).

• Actionresearchmodeforstimulatingwater‐andland‐relatedbenefit‐sharingarrangements.

• Comparativeanalysistogenerateinternationalpublicgoods.7.12. ResearchoutputsandoutcomesGenericresearchoutputsfromcross­basinresearch• Institutional,policyandtechnicalinnovationstoi)increasewaterandlandproductivity

ii)arrestlanddegradation;iii)alleviateadverseimpactsofspatialandinter‐andintra‐annualwaterresourcesvariability,iv)improveresourcegovernanceandbenefitssharing

• Informationandguidelinesoni)valueandproductivityofwaterindifferentuses

(includingaquaticandterrestrialenvironment);ii)selectionandevaluationofvariouswaterstorageoptionsandtheircombinationsatbasinscale;iii)planningandimplementationofbenefit‐sharingmechanisms;andiv)bestwaterandlandallocationpracticeswithsociallyandecologicallyresponsiblegoals.

• Methodsandtechniquesto:i)analyzetrade‐offsbetweendifferentwaterandlanduses;ii)

evaluatethedistributionoflandandwaterrelatedbenefits;iii)evaluatewateravailability,allocationandaccess

• Improvedcapacityintheformofi)non‐specialistswhoareawareofandhaveaccessto

advancedtechnologiesanddataresourcesforpolicy‐making(remotesensing,modeling,GIS);ii)trainedspecialistsincludingM.Sc.andPh.D.students

OutcomesIn10yearsitisexpectedthat:• Currentandfuture(underchangingclimates)waterresourcesvariabilityismainstreamed

intowaterresourcesplanninginalltargetareas.

• Decisionsoninvestmentsinwaterinfrastructureandontheselectionofwatermanagementpolicyoptions(notablyallocation)inwater‐stressedriverbasinsareinformedbytheresearchofthisSRPinallmajorriverbasins,consideringbothphysicalandsocio‐politicalcontexts.

• Waterstoragedevelopmentbecomesastructuredprocessworldwide.Governmentsanddevelopmentagenciespayattentiontothevarietyofstorageoptions(andtheir

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combinations)available,aspartofthe‘storagecontinuum,’andconsidereconomic,socialandecologicalimplicationsofstoragedevelopment.

• Benefit‐sharingmechanismsandpaymentsforecosystemservices,designedorinfluencedbythisSRP,areinplaceintargetriverbasins(whereprovedfeasibleandrelevant),andareconsideredforadoptioninothermajoragriculturalriverbasins/regionsoftheworld.

• Allwater‐relateddataandinformation(includinggroundobservationsfromallnationalarchives)requiredforinformedwaterandlandmanagementinallworldriverbasins(includingalltransboundaryones)arefreelysharedwithallnationalandinternationalstakeholders.ThisoutcomeisanticipatedthroughworkwiththeInformationSystemsSRP.

• Allocationofwaterforenvironmentalandsocialneedsisfirmlyincludedinnationalwaterpoliciesinallcountriesthatsharethetargetbasins,andhasbecometheinternationallyacceptedwatermanagementpractice.

• Ashifttocombinedsurface‐groundwatermanagementanduseispracticedinregionswheregroundwateriscurrentlyunderused.Agriculturalgroundwaterusehasincreasedbyananticipated30%insub‐SaharanAfrica,CentralAsiaandEastIndia/Nepal.Policiesspecifyingenvironmentalthresholdsofgroundwateruseareinplaceinallaboveriverbasinswhetherclosedoropen.ManagedaquiferrechargehasbecomeaviablealternativetotheNationalRiverLinkingProgram(NRLP)inIndia.ThisoutcomeisanticipatedthroughworkwiththeIrrigatedSystemsSRP.

• Thequantifiedimpactsofland‐usechangeonwateravailabilityareconsideredinallbasinmanagementdecisioninthetargetareas.

• Thenumberofpeopleexperiencingvariousformsofwaterscarcitygloballyissubstantiallyandclearlyreduced–directlyorindirectlyinfluencedbytheresultsoftheworkofthisSRP.

• Improvedresearchcapacitytoquantifyecosystemservices,analyzelandandwater‐relatedbenefits,improvewaterandlandmonitoring,andmitigatenegativeimpactsofhumaninterventionsisinplaceanddoubledinalltargetareas.

7.13. ResearchpartnersTable7.7indicatesthetypesofpartnerswearecurrentlyworkingwith,orplantoworkwith.Moredetailedpartnershiparrangementsbybasin,countryorregionwillbedevelopedduringtheimplementationphaseoftheprogram.Apartfromalreadyexistingstrongpartnershipsinregionswithindividualorganizations,oneintentionistodeveloplinkswithnetworksoforganizationsononehand(tobroadentheoverallpartnershipwebandincreasevisibility),andwithnewpartners–toaddressspecifictechnicalneedsofthenewprojectsunderthisSRP.AsthisisanintegratingSRP,additionalpartnershipswillalsonaturallybeestablishedthroughfourotherSRPs.Manypartnerships(e.g.withFAO,IUCN,theUNConventions,UNESCO‐HELPProgram,andARIs)willdealwithsustainableNRMinworldbasins,regionsandglobally.

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Table7.7.PartnersinSRPRiverBasins

Region/basin

Coreresearch Implementation Outreach

Limpopo–Zambezi

AgriculturalResearchCouncil(ARC)andCouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch(CSIR,SouthAfrica);WRC(SouthAfrica);TexasA&MUniversity,USA;DHIandGeologicalSurveyofDenmark(GEUS)

SouthernAfricanDevelopmentCommunity(SADC);MinistryofAgricultureandFoodSecurity,Malawi;LimCom(LimpopoBasinCommission);DepartmentofWaterAffair(SouthAfrica)

FANRPAN(Food,AgricultureandNaturalResourcesPolicyAnalysisNetwork),SouthAfrica;UNEP;IUCN,

Nile

BahirDarandArbaMinchUniversities(Ethiopia),WaterWatchandIHE(Netherlands),CornellandUtahStateUniversities,USA;StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI);EthiopianEconomicPolicyResearchInstitute;EthiopianInstituteofAgriculturalResearch;ARCandNWRCinEgypt

NileBasinInitiative(NBI);AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);EasternNileTechnicalRegionalOrganization(ENTRO);EthiopianRainWaterHarvestingAssociation(EWRHA)network;MinistriesofWaterResourcesandAgricultureinSudan,EthiopiaandEgypt;

RAMSAR;IUCN,UNEconomicCommissionforAfrica;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);

Volta–Niger

AGRHYMET,WestAfrica‐Niger;CouncilforScientificandIndustrialResearch(CSIR),GHANA;InstituteforEnvironmentandAgriculturalResearch(INERA),BurkinaFaso;ZEF‐Bonn;WASCALProjectlocatedinGhana‐BurkinaFaso,engagingmultipleEastAfricaandGermanUniversities;CIRADandIRD(France)

VoltaBasinAuthority(VBA);WaterResearchCommission(WRC)‐Ghana;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);Bill&MelindaGatesFoundation,USA;WaterResourcesCommission(WRC,Ghana),IDE

UNEconomicCommissionforAfrica;AllianceforaGreenRevolutioninAfrica(AGRA);

Mekong CSIRO‐Australia;ChineseAcademyofAgriculturalSciences(CAAS),China;NationalAgriculturalandforestryResearchInstitute(NAFRI)‐Laos;StockholmEnvironmentInstitute(SEI);SoilsandFertilizerResearchInstitute(SFRI),Vietnam;NationalAgricultureandForestryResearchInstitute(NAFRI),LaoPDR;UtahStateUniversity,USA;IRD(France)

MRC,FAO,MinistryofWaterResourcesandMeteorology‐Cambodia;MinistryofAgriculture,ForestryandFisheries(MAFF‐Cambodia;MinistryofNaturalResourcesandEnvironment(Vietnam)WaterResourcesandEnvironmentAdministration(WREA),LaoPDR

MPOWER,MRC

Indus–Ganges

ICIMOD,ICAR,PakistanAgriculturalResearchCouncil,IITM‐Pune,India,IWM(Bangladesh);WWF‐India;San–DiegoUniversity

MinistryofWaterResources,India;GangaWaterAuthority(GWAIndia),WAPDA(Pakistan);WARPO(Bangladesh);Nestle

WWF‐India,IUCN,WaterFootprintNetwork,GWP,InternationalWaterStewardshipNetwork

AralSeaBasins

SIC‐IWC,NationalHydrometeorologicalService,Uzbekistan;TheInstituteofHydrogeologyandEngineeringGeology,Tashkent

GTZ,WUAsinFerganaValley;SIC

AndeanBasins’group

COSUAN(networkof16Andeancountryuniversities);ConsortiumfortheSustainableDevelopmentoftheAndeanEcoregion(CONDESAN),Peru;

FUNDESOT(FoundationforSustainableDevelopment),Andes;RIMISP(LatinAmericanCenterforRuralDevelopment)