2015:A national election

• Nothing is certain• Every 1% counts

• Does Tory vote matter?• And the election just got more confused

Rob Hayward

19th January 2015

With thanks to…

What’s up?

• General

• Locals

• Most of England outside London• No Wales nor Scotland nor NI

• Mets 36• Unitaries 49• Districts 194• Mayors 5

Timetable

• Dec 19th Election expenses commenced• Mar 13th-University vacationsApr 13th • Mar 30th Parliament dissolved• Apr 3rd-6th Easter• Apr 9th Election nominations close• Apr 20th Final electoral registration • Apr 22nd?Postal votes sent out?• May 7th Polling Day

Declarations: Sunderland, Scotland, Wales, NI

Total votes?

• Winter NHS

Council Cuts• March 18th Budget Day• Debates?• Apr 14th Inflation• Apr 17th Employment• Apr 23rd PSBR• Apr 28th Q1 GDP est.

Process Campaign

Individual Electoral Registration

• ONS publish late-February• Down by 1-2%

Turnout (UK)

Feb-74

Oct-74

Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jul-05 Jul-0550%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

78.8%

72.8%

76.0%

72.7%

75.3% 77.7%

71.3%

59.4%61.4%

65.1%

65%?

Inside the House

Con

Lab

LD

DUP

SNP

SF

SDLP

PC

All

SH

Grn

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

306

258

57

8

6

5

3

3

1

1

1

UKIP 2Respect 1

Result 2010 by percentage - UK

Con Lab LD UKIP Green0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

36%

29%

23%

3%1%

2010 Vote Share

-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6

3.7

-6.2

1.0

0.9

-0.2

Change from 2005(GB: 37%)

Retiring MPs/Candidates (UK)

Retiring MPs• Con 1:9• Lab 1:9• LD 1:5

Candidates• In 2010:

- 4150 candidates in total - 572 UKIP- 310 Green

GB Polling post 2010 (1)

May '1

0

Aug '1

0

Oct '1

0

Dec '1

0

Feb

'11

Apr '1

1

Jun

'11

Aug '1

1

Oct '1

1

Dec '1

1

Feb

'12

Apr '1

2

Jun

'12

Aug '1

2

Oct '1

2

Dec '1

2

Feb

'13

Apr '1

3

Jun

'13

Aug '1

3

Oct '1

3

Dec '1

3

Feb

'14

Apr '1

4

June

'14

Augus

t '14

Octob

er 2

014

Decem

ber 2

014

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

3133

9.5

17

Polling post 2010 (2)

Proportion top 2 / leading party - UK

Feb-74 Oct-74 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jun-05 Jul-0520%

40%

60%

80%75.1%

75.0%

80.8%

70.0%73.0%

76.3%73.9%

72.4%

67.6%65.1%

37.2%39.2%

43.9%

42.4% 42.2% 41.9%

43.2%

40.7%

35.2%36.1%

Con/Lab share Winning party share

Voters: ‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (May-Oct 14)

‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (2)

ComRes, 14th-16th January 2014

63%

64%46%

56%Definitely decided how I will vote in the General Election

‘Moved house’ or ‘On Holiday’? (3)

• Will others go?

• Have Tories learnt to squeeze?

• Labour and WWC

• Where it matters

Campaign overstretch or confusion

• 2010 Con/Lab or Con/LD. Very little 4th party distraction.

• 2015• 100 Lab (106 or 68) + Scotland?• 80+ Con• 50+ LD• 20+ UKIP• 10 Grn• 25/30+ SNP

LocalsBradford

Changing the terrain

• Uniform National Swing? Not even in England

• 7-8 seats change hands (Con and Lab) per 1% party shift on UNS

• ‘Regional’ variation Definitely

Target seats

Labour largest party Labour majority Conservative majority

19. Brighton Pavilion 64. Vale of Glamorgan 17. Sutton & Cheam

20. Plymouth Sutton 65. Argyll & Bute 18. Halifax

21. Dewsbury 66. Dumfriesshire 19. Newcastle-under-Lyme

22. Warrington S 67. Carmarthen E 20. Middlesbrough S

23. Brent Central 68. Norwich N 21. Wakefield

24. Bedford (1,353; 3%) 69. High Peak (4,677; 9.3%) 22. St Ives (1,719; 3.7%)

25. Brighton Kempton 70. Milton Keynes S 23. Plymouth Moor View

26. Pudsey 71. Rossendale 24. Gedling

27. Corby 72. Cleethorpes 25. Eltham

28. Brentford & Isleworth 73. NE Somerset 26. Walsall S

29. Hove 74. Great Yarmouth 27. Nottingham S

Target seats (North)

North East:Stockton S

Middlesbrough S

Yorks & Humberside:Bradford EDewsburyPudseyKeighleyElmet & Rothwell

G Grimsby +Morley & OutwoodHalifaxWakefield

North West:Lancaster & Fleetwood

Morecombe & LunesdaleCarlisle

Weaver ValeWarrington S

Manchester WithingtonBurnleyBury N

Blackpool NWirral W

Pendle

Bolton WWirral S

Key:Lab target for largest party

Labour target for majCon target for maj

Target seats (Midlands)

East Mids:SherwoodBroxtoweAmber ValleyLincolnCorby*Northampton NErewashLoughboroughHigh Peak

Derby N

Boston & Skegness

West Mids:N Warwickshire

Wolverhampton SWHalesowen & Rowley Regis

NuneatonWorcester

Cannock ChaseWarwick & Leamington

Birmingham Yardley

SolihullDudley N +

TelfordWalsall N

Birmingham EdgbastonNewcastle Under Lyme

Target seats (South)

South EastBrighton Pavilion

Brighton KemptownHove

Hastings & Rye

Southampton Itchen

Thanet SThanet N

SittingbourneWorthing EAylesburyEastleigh +

Portsmouth S +

South West:Stroud

Plymouth SuttonGloucesterKingswoodSwindon S

Mid Dorset & N PooleWells

St Austell & NewquaySomerton & Frome

St Ives

Forest of Dean

Target seats (South)

EasternThurrock+Norwich SWaveneyBedfordIpswichStevenageWatfordNorwich N

Great Yarmouth +

LondonHendonBrent C

Brentford & IsleworthEnfield N

Croydon CHarrow EEaling C

Hampstead & KilburnSutton & Cheam

Target seats (Nations)

WalesCardiff N

ArfonCarmarthen W & S Pembs

Vale of GlamorganCarmarthen E & Dinefwr

Scotland:Dundee EastE DumbartonEdinburgh WArgyll & ButeDumfriesshire

Scotland (1)

• LD overpolled in 2005• Lab overpolled in 2010

Seats Vote % Change in vote %

Lab 41 42% +2.5

LD 11 19% -3.7

SNP 6 20% +2.3

Con 1 17% +0.9

Scotland (2)

Post-referendum local by-elections (mostly rural): party vote share changes v 2012

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

10.1

-6.2

6.4

-10.8

37.2

-5.3

6.53.2 1.9

-0.7

-32.5

-3.3-5.2

-0.9 -2.8

10.3

-14.9

SNP Lab Con

*

+

-

* - did not stand in 2012

Lib Dems

• 57 seats

• Scotland 11 seats• South West 15 seats• (University) 12 seats* (approx assessment. NB overlap with

categories above)

• Will lose virtually half of Parliamentary Party

• First 18 split: 9 Lab, 9 Tory• Thereafter (8): mostly SNP and Tory

‘Minor’ Party Impact

• 100 seats UKIP vote markedly bigger than majority (12.5%, 5,500-6,500 votes)

• 25 seats Green vote markedly bigger than majority(5%, 2,000-3,000 votes)

Polls & Results (1)within margin of error but….?

2014 Euro (6 polls)Actual Con Lab LD UKIP Grn

24 25 7 27 8

Correct 0 1 3 1 0

Understate -1% 1 0 1 0 0- more % 4 0 0 1 5

Overstate +1% 0 1 0 0 0+ more% 1 4 2 4 1

Average ‘miss’ -2.2% +2% +0.5% +3% -1.7%

Polls & Results (2)

2014 By-elections (5 seats 10 polls)Con Lab LD UKIP Green

Correct 0 1 3 0 1*

Understate -1% 2 1 1 0 2* - more % 6 0 0 4 -*

Overstate +1% 1 0 4 1 1* + more% 1 8 2 5 -*

Average ‘miss’ -1.8% +3.7% +0.8% -1.1% -1.5%

Results & polls (3)

2014 local elections - Rallings & Thrasher National Equivalent Vote

Actual Con Lab LD UKIP30 31 11 18

Polls+ 32 36 8 15+2 +5 -3 -3

All ‘actuals’ are rounded*represents inadequate data, figure in red is presumed calculation+ Figures for 2014 locals polls are based on Wikipedia‘Average ‘miss’ is arrived at by taking ‘actual ‘miss’, totalling the misses, and then dividing by number of samples

• Every 1% counts• (Turnout, IER, polls, incumbency, regions)

2015: THE SEQUEL?