Weekly Chart BookSeptember 9, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

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Accuvest Weekly Update

Global Financial Conditions

• Following the volatility we experienced in August, markets resumed their risk-on spirits this week. It was a bit rockier for fixed income as rates ended the week higher, with the U.S. 10yr yield approaching the symbolic 3% milestone for the first time since July 2011.

• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased, but remain at moderate levels

• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 15.85, down from 17.01 last week

• This week – Equities and Oil rallied, while Treasuries, IG Bonds, and the Yen struggled

Global Equity Markets

• The MSCI Emerging Markets Index rallied 5.1% this week, and is now back above its 50Day MA

• The S&P 500 was up 1.5% this week, but remains below its 50 Day MA

• The MSCI All Country World Index rallied 2.4% this week, but remains below May and July 2013 highs

• Healthcare and Consumer Discretionary lead Global Sectors year-to-date

Interest Rates and Fixed Income

• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.93%, up from 2.78% last week

• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.63% at the end of Q3 2013

• Investment Grade Bonds sold off 1.4% this week. They have failed to break above the 50DMA three times and are testing support

• High Yield Bonds sold off 0.3% this week, and are now below the 50DMA and the 200DMA

• Emerging Market Bonds appear oversold, while EM Debt spreads remain near 1 year highs

• Mortgage Rates @ 4.83%, down from 4.92% last week

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Accuvest Weekly Update

The Economy

• Housing/Real Estate and Labor Market highlight the US Economy

• ADP Employment and Non-farm Payrolls missed expectations this week

• Vehicles Sales, ISM Manufacturing, ISM Services, and Initial Jobless Claims met or exceeded expectations

• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on Mortgage Apps, PPI, and Retail Sales

Major Currencies

• Only the Pound, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Brazilian Real and Aussie Dollar have both depreciated more than 10% vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months

• The Mexican Peso (+4.5%) and Norwegian Krone(+0.82%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• The Swiss Franc(-4.3%) and Japanese Yen(-3.8%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013

• MXN/USD @ 13.16, strengthening from 13.38 last week and backing away from 1 year highs

Commodities

• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) have shown recent relative strength, but they remain in a 5 year down trend

• Gold @ $1392/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th, and backing away from recent highs of $1433/oz.

• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio has broken to the downside, but bounced off of 200DMA

• Crude Oil @ $110.53, up from $107.65/barrel last week and now above resistance @ $108/barrel

• Copper @ $325.80/lb., backing away from 6 month highs, but up from $322.50/lb. last week

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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US Financial Conditions

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Developed Markets

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Emerging Markets

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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

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Global Financial Stress Index

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Citi Macro Risk Index

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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

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Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)

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Investment Grade Bond Prices

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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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High Yield Bond Prices

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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)

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Emerging Market Bond Spreads

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World Equity Indices

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MSCI All Country World Index

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S&P 500 Index

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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index

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AGO Constituents – Japan, China, USA, Germany, & Austria

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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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Last week’s Economic Calendar

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Next week’s Economic Calendar

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Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)

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Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

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Case Schiller Composite 20 City Home Price Index – YoY

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30 Year Mortgage Rates

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US Personal Income – YoY Growth

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Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

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US Dollar Index

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Japanese Yen ¥

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Euro €

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Mexican Peso

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Emerging Market Currencies

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Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years

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Gold Prices – 5 Years

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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 5 Years

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Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years

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Copper Prices – 5 Years

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Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)

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S&P500 vs. Copper (HG1) – 5 Years