Post on 11-Jul-2020
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2011 TMT Predictions.
October 2011
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Deloitte’s TMT predictions was released in 60 countries and
launched in 60+ cities in 2011.
Predictions was first published in 2001.
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Predictions Methodology 7,000 specialists in
TMT, tax, audit, risk,
corporate finance
and consulting
Deloitte TMT
Research
Projects /
discussions with
industry bodies
Macroeconomic
research
Discussions with
clients around the
world
Reports and
discussions with key
experts at industry
analysts and
financial institutions
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2010 TMT Predictions Report Card
March 2011
Duncan Stewart
Director
Deloitte Canada Research
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2010 Predictions report card
Technology
Smaller than a netbook and bigger than a smartphone – net tablets arrive
Moore’s Law is alive and well in 2010
Cloud computing: more than hype but less than hyper
Thinking thin is in again: virtual desktop infrastructures challenge the PC
IT procurement stands on its head
CleanTech makes a comeback. But solar stays in the shadows
From gray to green: technology reinvents cement
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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Smaller than a netbook, and bigger than a smartphone –
Net tablets arrive
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2010 Predictions report card
Media
Linear's got legs: the television and radio schedule stays supreme
The shift to online advertising: more selective, but the trend continues
eReaders fill a niche, but eBooks fly off the (virtual) shelves
Publishing fights back: paywalls and micropayments
TV and the web belong together, but not necessarily on the same screen
Music as a service rises up the charts
Video on demand takes off – thanks to the vending machine
One step back, two steps forward for 3D TV
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
3D TV falls flat
$ 3,500.00
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
2010 Predictions report card
Telecommunications
The smartphone becomes a search phone
Mobile VoIP becomes a social network
Widening the bottleneck: telecom technology helps decongest the mobile
network
Paying for what we eat: carriers change data pricing and make regulators happy
Nixing the nines: reliability redefined and reassessed
Contract 2.0: long term solutions shorten and multiply
The line goes leaner. And greener.
Came true, but less than
we predicted. At least so far
Didn’t come true
as we predicted
Legend
Came true exactly as
much as we predicted
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 11
We are in the post-PC era*
Android is the next Microsoft*
We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*
Everything gets faster forever*
Facebook is the next Google*
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Smartphones and tablets: more than half of all computers
aren’t computers anymore
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Tablet computers: toys no more
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 14
We are in the post-PC era*
Android is the next Microsoft*
We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*
Everything gets faster forever*
Facebook is the next Google*
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 15
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 16
We are in the post-PC era*
Android is the next Microsoft*
We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*
Everything gets faster forever*
Facebook is the next Google*
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 17
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
#4 – We are passive viewers and linear addicts
According to BBM Canada, adults 18+ watch 29.1
average weekly hours of television (National PPM
data averaged over first 47 weeks of 2009/10
broadcast year). Of this total, the average weekly
hours of live viewing is 28.2 (96.9% of viewing),
while the average weekly hours of playback
viewing is just 0.91 (3.1% of viewing).
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
“TV is the fire that the tribe gathers around”
Duncan, you idiot. Why are you fishing
for the Daily Double when you hardly have
any money? #jeopardy 19
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
How big is Netflix?
According to Nielsen US, 6.5 million Netflix
subscribers watched an average of 9 hours of video in
February, 2011. That is 60 million hours of video.
In the same month, 297 million Americans watched an
average of 154 hours of TV. That is 45.7 BILLION
hours of video.
Netflix was <0.1% of all video watched.
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 21
We are in the post-PC era*
Android is the next Microsoft*
We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*
Everything gets faster forever*
Facebook is the next Google*
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Bandwidth, bandwidth, bandwidth
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Wireless progress
Between 1957 and 2008, using better technology and
smaller cells, we can send 1,000,000x more data per
hertz of spectrum.
Between 2011 and 2015, the same techniques will
allow us to send 3x as much data per hertz.
Wireless data growth is going to be about 280% in
2011.
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Radio Spectrum
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© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 25
We are in the post-PC era*
Android is the next Microsoft*
We want to watch what we want, when we want, on any device*
Everything gets faster forever*
Facebook is the next Google*
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities. 26
© Deloitte & Touche LLP and affiliated entities.
Internet brain: Search, hunt, acquire
“I wonder if Amazon has gazelles on sale?”
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Social network brain: relax, share, socialize
“So, two hippos walk into a bar…”
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Stage 0 Social Media
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Stage 1 Social Media
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Stage 2 Social Media
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Stage 3 Social Media
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Stage 4 Social Media
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TMT Predictions customized events
Duncan Stewart can deliver a tailored presentation for your office/industry!
Email Duncan: dunstewart@deloitte.ca
Follow me on Twitter: dunstewart
Friend me on Facebook: facebook.com/dunstewart
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