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MARKET S-TERMMULTI-DAY L-TERMMULTI-WEEK STRATEGY/POSITION ENTRYLEVEL OBJECTIVES/COMMENTS STOP
EUR/USD Awaiting Trade Setup 1.4580 or 1.4260.GBP/USD Buy limit 3 1.6190 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550 1.6120USD/JPY Awaiting Trade Setup above 80.00.USD/CHF See OCO trade on page.USD/CAD Await Trade Setup (neutral).AUD/USD Awaiting Trade Setup.GBP/JPY Await fresh signal.EUR/JPY SHORT 1 117.70 105.44 (Entered on 04/07/2011) 114.70EUR/GBP Sell limit 3 0.8900 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285 0.9005EUR/CHF SHORT 3 1.1650 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200 1.1720GOLD Exited at 1615SILVER SHORT 3 39.2800 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000 41.5500
WINNER BEST SPECIALIST RESEARCH
DISCLAIMER & DISCLOSURESPlease read the disclaimer and thedisclosures which can be found atthe end of this report
DAILY TECHNICAL REPORT26 July, 2011
Notes:Entriesarein3unitsandobjectivesareat3 separate levelswhere1unitwillbeexited.Whenthefirstobjective(PT1)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtotheentry
pointforanearriskfreetrade.Whenthesecondobjective(PT2)hasbeenhitthestopwillbemovedtoPT1lockinginmoreprofit.Allordersarevaliduntilthenextreportis
published,oratradingstrategyalertissentbetweenreports.
Ron William, CMT, MSTA
Bijoy Kar, CFA
MIG BANK Forex Broker 14, rte des Gouttes dOr CH-2008 Neuchtel Switzerland
Tel +41 32 722 81 00 Fax +41 32 722 81 01 info@migbank.com www.migbank.com
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Initial breakout above Bermuda Triangle Pattern.
EUR/USD has extended its rebound and triggered an initial breakoutabove the major rates Bermuda triangle, where several false signals
have previously been exhibited.
As previously stated, only a sustained close above 1.4578-80 will lead to areassessment of our long standing bearish view, opening a potential
extended recovery into previous key resistance at 1.4711/30 plus.
Meanwhile, it will remain more of a (micro) short-term hit & runspeculative market environment until EUR-USD sustains meaningful
directional breakout through our low risk trigger levels at either 1.4580
(upside) or 1.4260-1.4060 (downside).
Inversely, the US dollar index is now holding steady around key support at73.50. We expect this level to hold (as the last point of defence), where a
potential oversold bounce could still develop.
SPECIALREPORT:EUR/USDAFallFromGrace?DeclineTargets1.3770/1.3410.Please select link: REPORT VIDEO
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Trade Setup 1.4580 or 1.4260.
EUR/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
EUR/USD
EUR/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
US Dollar Index daily and weekly chart, with COT Liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
+
-
STILLUNWINDING!
US$ INDEX
(Weekly)(4 YEARS)
TD EXHAUSTIONBUY SIGNAL 13
+27% +19%
TRIGGER
(15000)
COT LIQUIDITY EXTREME NETUS $ SHORTPOSITIONS
FALLINGWEDGE
PATTERN
13
US DOLLAR INDEX
(Daily 2 years)
TDBUY
EXHAUSTIONSIGNALS
9
200-DMA(76.91)
http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdfhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/mailto:r.william@migbank.commailto:r.william@migbank.comhttp://www.migbank.com/research-department/forex-market-outlook/http://www.migbank.com/research/howard/2011-06-17_migbank_daily-technical-analysis-report_special-focus-EURUSD.pdf8/6/2019 2011 07 26 Migbank Daily Technical Analysis Report+
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Short-term structure remains bullish.
GBP/USD continues to be supported by the 50 week moving average afterbreaking out of a weekly rising channel earlier in the year.
Furthermore, long-term trend-line resistance off 2.1162 has been tested assupport.
We have also seen a failure in the daily timeframe to stay beneath the oldsupport of a triangular reversal pattern, weakening the case for the bears.
We look to see how the region near 1.6200 fares, in the event of acorrective phase developing, and now favour the formation of a higher low
in this region ahead of fresh swing higher.
Bigger picture, a larger trading range may be developing.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Buy limit 3 at 1.6190, Objs: 1.6260/1.6350/1.6550, Stop: 1.6120.
GBP/USD
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/USD
GBP/USD hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
GBP/USD weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Breaking beneath extreme support at 78.24.
USD/JPY has weakened further and is now breaking beneath extremesupport at 78.44/24 (78.6/78.6% Fib retracement-March upswing).
We remain bullish in the medium to long-term, but are more cautious,watching for a sustained resumption of the potentially new structural bull-
cycle. However, a close beneath 76.25 would change our view.
To signal an impulsive move higher, we still need a sustained close abovestrategic levels at 82.00 (post G7 intervention high) and 83.30 (post
Earthquake shock high), then onwards into 85.50 (07th April high).
The bulls must extend gains past 85.50 to trigger a renewed attack onto88.00 (Major ending diagonal pattern ceiling).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await Buy Trade Setup above 80.00
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 426
USD/JPY
USD/JPY daily and weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
82.00
83.30
WAVE 5
MAJOR TRIANGLE(WAVE IV) SIGNALSFINAL MOVE DOWN
1
NEW POST WWIIRECORD LOW !!!
(76.25)
USD/JPY (Daily
TDST (83.90)
1 YEAR)
EARTHQUAKESHOCK!
CONFLUENCEZONE
WAVE 2
POST INTERVENTIONRETRACEMENT (PIR)
POSTG7
MOVEHIGH
TESTINGEXTREME
RETRACEMENT
(78.44/24)
MONTHLY TDBUY SIGNAL
USD/JPY Weekly(2007 2011)
ENDINGDIAGONAL
PATTERN
(88.00)
EXHAUSTION
BREAKOUTTARGET
ZONE
13
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Under wedge support required to complete pattern.
Sell recommendation revised again, see below. USD/CHF approaches the support of the multi-month falling wedge that
has been developing over the last seven months. We continue to expect
an eventual break under this support, ahead of a possible recovery higher.
A lower high is now potentially in place at 0.8278, with scope for a test ofwedge support and then a further break lower.
We also note that a push under the long-term wedge support is requiredto complete this ultimately bullish long term pattern.
A push over 0.8398 will end our short-term bearish bias. We look for a break back over 0.8551 before considering longs. We are recommending an OCO (one cancels the other) trade:
1. Sell limit at 0.8100, Objs: 0.8000/0.7825/0.7650, Stop: 0.8200
2. Sell stop at 0.7997, Objs: 0.7897/0.7700/0.7600, Stop: 0.8097
Whichever order gets filled first will cancel the other.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
See text above.
USD/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
USD/CHFUSD/CHF
USD/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bear resume lower and trigger new multi-year lows.
USD/CAD has resumed lower and now triggered new multi-year lows at0.9407. Corrective activity was originally triggered after the rates
expanding pattern initially failed at key resistance into 0.9906-0.9915
(38.2% Fib-Sept 2010 decline & 200 DMA).
Meantime, our medium/long-term perspective remains neutralised afterthe failed breakout from the multi-month wedge pattern.
Indeed, the bulls must now recapture 0.9913/15 (27th June swinghigh/38.2% Fib), to achieve a sustainable recovery into 0.9968 (17th March
high) and 1.0000 (parity level).
Elsewhere, EUR/CAD is continuing to accelerate lower having recentlybreached its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.3379 (61.8% Fib).
In contrast, CHF/CAD is now developing volatile price swings within a
sideways trading range, having failied to retest its 2011 highs at 1.1887.
Moreover, the pair has also triggered two DeMark exhaustion signals
suggesting risk of further weakeness into support at 1.1193 (38.2% Fib).
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting trade setup (Neutral).
USD/CAD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
USD/CAD daily and chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CAD and CHF/CAD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
USD/CAD(Weekly )
0.9059
TDBUYSIGNAL
13
EXHAUSTION
FAILED
FALLINGWEDGE
CHANNEL
BREAKOUTFROM
EXPANDINGPATTERN
INITIAL FAILURE
USD/CAD (Daily)
AT RESISTANCE
MAJOR LOW(0.9446)
61.8%(1.3379)
MAJOR RESISTANCE
EUR/CAD(Daily)
200-DMA
(1.3715)
38.2%(1474.69)
50%(1474.69)
CHF
61.8%(1474.69)
/CAD (Daily)
TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
13
13
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Extending into major high at 1.1012.
AUD/USD rebound has extended above our DeMark TD Risk level at1.0935 and is now looking to capture 1.1012 (major high).
Meantime, support can be found at 1.0810 and 1.0443 (TDST line),thereafter unlocking extended downside scope into 1.0359 (50% Fib), then
1.0205 and 0.9990.
Elsewhere, the Aussie dollar remains weak against the New Zealand dollar.The pair is still locked within its new bear cycle structure while it holds
beneath its 200-day MA. Key support can be found at 1.2500/1.2463.
The Aussie dollar is stabilising against the Japanese yen, above its multi-month pattern floor. Only a confirmed downside breakout would signal a
switch to risk aversion in the financial community.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Awaiting Trade Setup.
AUD/USD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
AUD/NZD and AUD/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
AUD/USD daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
0.9706
KEY SUPPORTV-SHAPE
UPSIDE REVERSAL
0.9537
1.0256
AUD/USD (Daily 1 YEAR)
1.0200
13 TD EXHAUSTIONSELL SIGNALS
13?
200-DMA(1.0234)
TD RISK1.0935
200-DMACAPSBEARMKT
AUD/NZD
(Daily)
KEY SUPPORT1.2500 / 1.2463
38.2%(84.09)
POTENTIALBREAKOUTADDS TO
61.8%(80.42)
EXHAUSTION
SELL
RISKAVERSION
50%(82.25)
AUD/JPY
(Daily)13 TD
SIGNAL
200-DMA(83.75)
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Resolution of consolidation awaited.
GBP/JPY has thus far met resistance close to the prior swing low at 128.17.Failure to remain below this level on a daily closing basis will increase the
probability of a return to the resistance of the falling channel.
In the meantime, we remain biased to a return towards the support of theweekly channel and then potentially on towards 122.36.
Although the area around the daily channel support has been tested, weexpect a return to this region and then a clear break under this support,
ahead of a possible recovery.
We now await a shorter-term setup, to assist us in the formulation of anexplicit trade recommendation and to this end await a breakout of the
hourly consolidation that has been developing over recent sessions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Await fresh signal, with a bias to shorts.
GBP/JPY
GBP/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
GBP/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
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A break under hourly trend-line support to weaken further.
EUR/JPY appears to be breaking down again after completing a recoveryphase following the peak at 123.33 and then subsequently failing to hold
over 116.00.
We combine this with the recent break under the platform near 113.42/50,which also constitutes a push under the 200 day moving average.
The exhaustion pattern that we witnessed last Friday has led to a period ofweakness. We next seek a break under the hourly rising support off109.63, with a break under this structure weakening the outlook further.
If a push under 109.58 can be realised a substantial extension lower wouldthen be favoured to follow, potentially beyond 105.44.
We also note that the recent sharp fall has also pushed under the 50 weekmoving average.
Failure to remain under 113.50 on a daily closing basis will warn of an endto weakness and a return to strength.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Short 1 at 117.70, Obj: 105.44, Stop: 114.70.
EUR/JPY hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
EUR/JPY daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPYEUR/JPY
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Remains largely rangebound for now.
EUR/GBP appears to have completed the rising phase seen since 0.8285,with the move lower from 0.9084 meeting 0.8705 thus far.
A return to the 200 day moving average is now favoured. This currentlylies near 0.8667.
We view the current bounce as being corrective in nature within theshorter-term timeframe and seek a lower high close to 0.8900, ahead of a
resumption of weakness. We seek a final swing higher in the shorter-term timeframe ahead of fresh
weakness, potentially leaving a false break higher out of the rising hourly
channel.
A break under 0.8611 is required to break down the current longer-termbullish structure.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Sell limit 3 at 0.8900, Objs: 0.8795/0.8500/0.8285, Stop: 0.9005.EUR/GBP hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBP weekly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/GBPEUR/GBP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Further weakness anticipated while under 1.1892.
EUR/CHF has potentially registered a lower high at 1.1892 last week. Yesterdays break under 1.1610 now warns of a resumption of weakness
with a return to 1.1374 now favoured.
The longer-term falling trend remains intact and while under 1.2080 wewould favour a continuation of this larger trend.
We note, in the absence of further stresses from the Eurozone periphery,that a larger recovery would then become likely due to the probableextreme short positioning in this market.
S-T TREND L-T TREND
Short 3 at 1.1650, Objs: 1.1580/1.1370/1.1200, Stop: 1.1720.
EUR/CHF daily chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
EUR/CHF
EUR/CHF hourly chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Bijoy Kar, Technical Strategist, E-mail: b.kar@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 424
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Resumption of uptrend needs to close above 1620-24.
Golds previous resumption of the uptrend still needs to close above 1620-24 in order to confirm sustainable extensions higher in line with the major
uptrend for extensions into the next key level at 1700.00.
We had prefered hedge for downside risks following the recentunprecedented explosive upside move, which triggered a confluence of
our exhaustion signals.
However, as previously stated, it was critical the market confirmed areversal beneath a filtered price/time trigger point. This downside trigger
level still holds at 1588/82.
In terms of the big picture, we continue to watch price activity within theapex of the 12-year exhaustion pattern (illustrated on the weekly log chart),
which has also developed a unique long-term DeMark exhaustion signal.
Golds COT liquidity indicator (net long positions) remains squeezed withina tight range (as Gold continued to make push to record highs on lower
volume). At this stage, the risk remains for a downside breakout which
would unlock over 1.5 years of sizeable gold long positions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
Exited at 1615.
GOLD
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
Gold daily, weekly chart and COT liquidity, Bloomberg Finance LP
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Bullish revival MUST close above 40.0000.
Silvers bulish revival MUST sustain a daily close above 40.0000 in order toextend another potential recovery leg higher.
Such a positive scenario would help extend the bullish recovery further intoour next target zone between 43.1136-43.8477.
Meanwhile, neat-term support can be found at 39.1425. A break herewould trigger downside risk into 33.8416 (32.8% Fib), near the long-term
200-day MA at 33.3182.
Remember that key macro support exists at 26.9600 (50% Fib-1999 bullmarket) and would still mean that silvers long-term uptrend remains intact.
We also continue to watch silvers relative performance against gold, whichis currently unwinding (already up 37%), from extreme oversold conditions.
S-T TREND L-T TREND STRATEGY
SHORT 3: 39.2800, Obj: 36.7750/32.3125/28.9000, Stop: 41.5500
SILVER
Spot Silver daily, weekly and Gold/Silver Ratio chart, Bloomberg Finance LP
Ron William, Technical Strategist, E-mail: r.william@migbank.com, Phone: +41 32 7228 454
BULLMARKET
FROM1999
Silver Monthly (since 1980)
13
OVER BASE
38.2%(32.3135)
50%(26.9150)
30YEAR
61.8%(21.5165)
Silver HITS 1980 Spike High!TD
SIGNALSEXHAUSTION
SELL
UNWINDING 37%FROMOVERSOLD TERRITORY
Gold/Silver Ratio
37%13 YEAR LEVEL
TARGET 2(43.1136/43.8477)
Silver (Daily) 13
38.2%(34.0015)
50%(29.1244)
200 MA(32.9235)
50%(41.0513)
LEGAL
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Material Interests
MIG BANK and/or its board of directors, executive management and employees may have
or have had interests or positions on, relevant securities.
Copyright
All material produced is copyright to MIG BANK and may not be copied, e-mailed, faxed or
distributed without the express permission of MIG BANK
Notes: Entries are in 3 units and objectives are at 3 separate levels where 1
unit will be exited. When the first objective (PT 1) has been hit the stop will be
moved to the entry point for a near risk-free trade. When the second objective
(PT 2) has been hit the stop will be moved to PT 1 locking in more profit. All
orders are valid until the next report is published, or a trading strategy alert is
sent between reports.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
MIG BANK for personal use and for informational purposes only and
are subject to change without notice. MIG BANK makes no
representations (either expressed or implied) that the information and
opinions expressed are accurate, complete or up to date. In
particular, nothing contained constitutes financial, legal, tax or other
advice, nor should any investment or any other decisions be made
solely based on the content. You should obtain advice from a
qualified expert before making any investment decision.
All opinion is based upon sources that MIG BANK believes to be
reliable but they have no guarantees that this is the case. Therefore,
whilst every effort is made to ensure that the content is accurate and
complete, MIG BANK makes no such claim.
No information published constitutes a solicitation or offer, or
recommendation, to buy or sell any investment instrument, to effect
any transactions, or to conclude any legal act of any kind whatsoever.
The information published and opinions expressed are provided by
DIS
CLA
IMER
LEGALTERMS
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www.migbank.comHoward FriendChief Market Strategisth.friend@migbank.com b.kar@migbank.com
Technical StrategistBjioy Kar
Tel.+41 32 722 81 00CH-2008 Neuchtel14, rte des Gouttes dOr
www.migbank.com
MIG BANKinfo@migbank.com
r.william@migbank.comTechnical StrategistRon William
CONTACT
mailto:h.friend@migbank.commailto:b.kar@migbank.comhttp://www.migbank.com/mailto:info@migbank.commailto:r.william@migbank.commailto:h.friend@migbank.commailto:b.kar@migbank.comhttp://www.migbank.com/mailto:info@migbank.commailto:r.william@migbank.com