2010 Midterm Election2010 Midterm ElectionWhat happened?

2010 Midterm2010 Midterm

RESULTS

60+ GOP seat gain in US House

6 Seat GOP Gain in US Senate

11 state leg. Changed GOP; 7 Governors to GOP

2010 Midterm2010 Midterm

What trends?

Does the Tea Party really exist?

How interpret?

◦Mandate for GOP programs?

◦Referendum on Obama?

◦Voters looking back in anger at economy?

Electoral context different in Washington

Obama net negative nationally

Obama net positive in WA, CA, OR

Electoral context different in Washington

Republican Favorability near par w/ Dems nationally

Republicans viewed far less favorably than Dems on West Coast

Electoral context different in Washington

Your vote express support for Obama, opposition to Obama, or Obama not a factor

Graph shows “support Obama” + “not a factor” as No

The economy, stupid. And health care. Outside of the west.

Economy dominant everywhere

Huge increase over 2006

Any year, voters punish incumbents

Voter evaluations of the economyVoter evaluations of the economy

2010

15% family situation “better” (60% Dem)

9% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (77% Dem)

37% economy “poor” (68% GOP)

2006

30% family situation “better” (71% GOP)

49% natl economy “excellent” or “good” (70% GOP)

13% economy “poor” (85% Dem)

Tea PartyTea Party

No such thing as a Tea PartyNo such thing as a Tea Party

Republicans

◦92% strong disapprove Congress

◦94% vote GOP in House races

◦13% blame Bush for economy

◦Older, male, educated, affluent, registered GOP

“Tea Party”

◦90% strong disapprove Congress

◦92%◦5% blame Bush for

economy◦Older, male, affluent,

registered GOP◦Hands of social

programs

No such thing as a Tea PartyNo such thing as a Tea Party

Tea Party (?) 2010

◦ Older, affluent(-ish) voters angry at Obama about economy

◦ 12% under 30; 14% 30-39 (majority D)

◦ Only 3% first time voters 45% D, 43% R

2006, 2008

◦ Younger, less affluent voters angry at Bush about economy

◦ 18% under 30; 18% 30-39 (majority D)

◦ 11% first time voters in 2008 69% D, 30% R

Mandate?

Most important issue facing the country today?

Afghanistan, immigration in single digits

Mandate?

What is the highest priority for the new Congress?

40% “reduce deficit” (65% R)

37% “spend to create jobs” (68% D)

Seat Gain/Loss For President's Party in US House

-80

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

19301932193419361938194019421944194619481950195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004200620082010

Surge and Decline: President’s party gain ‘on year,’ Lose in midterm. Avg= 24 seat loss in midterm

It Takes Seats to Lose Seats: 2010 looks like 1994, 1974,1946, 1938…. (but worse)

Public opinion after elections2010 weakest of weak mandates

Public opinion after elections2010 less about Obama than 1994 about Clinton, 2006 about Bush

What is Responsible for Turnover of Congress?

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2010 2006 1994

Support ChallengerParty ProgramsOppose IncumbentParty ProgramsDissapproval ofPresident

2010 Midterm2010 MidtermWhy surge and decline?

◦Presidential elections higher turnout

◦Many voters mobilized by presidential elections stay home 2 years later

2010 ->40% 88 million2008 ->62% 133 million2006 ->40% 86 million2004 ->60% 124 million2002 ->40% 80 million2000 ->54% 107 million1998 ->38% 75 million

Not many voters Not many voters changing their votes…changing their votes…it’s who shows upit’s who shows up

Marginal Dems Marginal Dems LostLost

Marginal seats = moderates

Dem more ‘cohesive’

GOP caucus also?

Greater polarization

Reapportionment: Dividing the losses

No change of party control state leg:

NV, UT, AZ, TX, FL, GA, SC

GOP win control of state leg:

OH, PA, MI, WI, NC, MN, IN, AL, MT (1)

GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’GOP Gains larger than ‘expected’

Forecasting models Under-predicted 2010 GOP gains

Why?

Economy, presidential approval, ‘generic ballot’ not enough◦ Turnout?◦ fundraising?

A curious bit about pollingRepublican vote over-estimated in close Senate races

How did 2010 play out West?How did 2010 play out West?

2010 Midterm in US 2010 Midterm in WA

The Economy East of Rockies, huge

GOP gains +6 GOP US Senate +55 GOP US House

Limited referendum on Obama Ltd. angst about health

care

The Economy◦ West of the Rockies,

different story No Senate change +6 GOP US House

◦ Referendum on economy Not much care about

health care

Trends in WashingtonEvidence of slight GOP gain in Party Identification

GOP Gains in WA State Leg.Not on par with 1994

Steady decline in voter approvalWashington Poll data

Trends in WA Voters' Opinions: 2006-2010

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

%Approve Gov%Approve Leg%Right Track

Decline of economy, rise of issueWashington Poll data…several D seats 2006 due to Iraq

Least popular, most popularWashington Poll, 2010….few have heard of McKenna

What about 2012?What about 2012?

Economic Recovery No Recovery

Presidents clobbered in midterm who won

◦ FDR 1940, ‘44◦ Truman 1948◦ Reagan 1984◦ Clinton 1996

Presidents (party) who lost

◦ IKE/GOP 1960◦ LBJ/Dems 1968◦ Carter/Dems 1980◦ Bush I 1992

2010 Midterm: An Outlier?2010 Midterm: An Outlier?

Conclusions◦Predictable, but

bigger shift than ‘expected?’

◦Why so big? No recovery Deep recession Dems went for HC,

not stimulus Obama factor (?)

Not mentioned

◦Spending Citizen’s United

◦WA ballot measures

◦Whatcom County, 42nd LD.