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Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Stephen Rose, Paulina Jaramillo, Jay Apt, Mitch Small, Iris Grossmann
Carnegie Mellon University
May 21st, 2012
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U.S. Has Good OffshoreWind Resources
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Wind Turbines are Vulnerable to Hurricanes
Typhoon Maemi, Okinawa, 2003
Takahara, et al (2004)
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We Fit a GEV Distribution to Hurricane Intensity
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We Model Probability of Tower Buckling by a Log-Logistic Function
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We Model Distribution of Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years
• No replacement: Phase-Type distribution• Replacement: compound Poisson
distribution
Assumptions:- Single wind farm- Each turbine experiences same conditions
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Turbines Designed to Survive Category 1 Hurricane
50-turbine wind farm
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Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years50-turbine wind farm
Not yawingYawing
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Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years50-turbine wind farm
Not yawingYawing
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Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years50-turbine wind farm
Not yawingYawing
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Turbines Destroyed in 20 Years50-turbine wind farm
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High-Category Hurricanes Cause Most Expected Damage
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Engineering Changes Can Reduce Risk
• Backup power for yaw system– Survival depends on active system– Wind vane must survive– Turbine must yaw quickly
• Stronger towers and blades– More steel in tower– More fiberglass in blades– 20 – 30% cost increase
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Careful Siting Can Reduce Risk
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Future Research: How Much Reserve Power is Needed?
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Quantifying the Hurricane Risk to Offshore Wind Turbines
Stephen Rose, Paulina Jaramillo, Jay Apt, Mitch Small, Iris Grossmann
Carnegie Mellon University
May 21st, 2012