Implementation of FLAGSHIP PROGRAM in EARLY WARNING SYSTEM FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION

(EWS DRR)

presented by Dr. Pariatmono Sukamdo

Ministry of Research and Technology Republic of Indonesia

The 64th ASEAN Committee on Science and Technology (COST-64) Meetings

Empire Hotel and Country Club Brunei, 27 November – 02 December 2012

Outline 1.  Introduction – Historical Background, Implementation Plan

2.  ASEAN – Indian Ocean Countries Training Course on Earthquake Monitoring, Crustal Deformation, Seismic Zoning Method and Tsunami Early Warning

3.  ASEAN Workshop on Early Warning System for Tsunami Disaster - Lesson Learned from Aceh Tsunamigenic Earthquake in 11 April 2012 and Improvement of School Preparedness

4.  The Way Forward

1.  Introduction Historical Background, Implementation Plan

Historical Background

Flagship program on Early Warning System for Disaster Risk Reduction (EWS DRR) •  First initiation (August 2005): 11th ASEAN Ministerial

Meeting on Science and Technology (AMMST), Jakarta •  Endorsement (2007): ASEAN COST (Committee of

Science and Technology) •  as one of APAST (ASEAN Plan of Action in Science and

Technology) Flagship programs •  to be implemented in 2007-2011 •  Appointed Indonesia as the chairman

•  From the period of 2007-2010, Indonesia conducted several workshop and trainings which relates to EWS DRR

Vision Statement

By 2015, there shall be, for all ASEAN countries, an established and operational national monitoring systems for

1.  earthquake, 2.  tsunami, 3.  tropical cyclone, 4.  forest fire haze, 5.  drought and 6.  flood

that are interoperable / linked regionally for early warning

Goal Statement Considering:

1.  Potential overlap with ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response (AADMER) [December 2009] in establishing ASEAN Coordinating Center for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management (AHA Center)

2.  the authority to develop early warning center (i.e. to warn people in affected area) lies within each member states

Goal Statement:

To enhance the role of science and technology in establishing interoperable and operational national early warning systems for earthquake, tsunami, tropical cyclone, forest fire haze, drought and flood.

Split of Responsibilities Considering:

1.  Attention should only be

focused on disaster which has regional Impacts

2.  Not all member states share the same threat with respect to natural hazards

Agreed in Bandung, 03-04 May 2011:

THAILAND 5.  flood

PHILLIPINE 6.  tropical cyclone INDONESIA

1.  earthquake, 2.  tsunami, 3.  forest fire haze, 4.  drought

Implementation Plan

#1: Workshop on Promoting the Role of Scientists in Disaster Mitigation

#2:Workshop and Training on Seismic Data Exchange and Warning Dissemination

#3:Workshop on Lesson Learned from Community Preparedness during 11 April 2012 Twin Earthquakes

ASEAN – Indian Ocean Countries Training Course on Earthquake Monitoring, Crustal Deformation, Seismic Zoning Method and Tsunami Early Warning

Citeko, West-Java, 19-30 December 2012

ASEAN Workshop on Early Warning System for Tsunami Disaster Lesson Learned from Aceh Tsunamigenic Earthquake in 11 April 2012 and Improvement of School Preparedness

Banda Aceh, 21 – 23 November 2012

2. ASEAN – Indian Ocean Countries Training Course

on Earthquake Monitoring, Crustal Deformation, Seismic Zoning Method and Tsunami Early Warning

Recommendations from: 1. Technical Task Force on TEWS 2. COST Meeting: Seam Reap (2011) and Nay Pyi Daw (2012)

Focuses: 1. Seismology

2. Analysis of earthquake parameters using SeiscomP3

(Germany)

Participants: ASEAN Member States

Timor Leste Indian Ocean Countries

Instructors:

Indonesian and German Experts

Date: 19 November – 1 December

2012

Venue: BMKG Training Center in

Citeko. Bogor BMKG Head Office, Jakarta

Summary

Programme (1) DAY 1: Monday, 19 Nov 2012

1. Opening Session . Claus Milkereit – GFZ . Alexander Lim – ASEAN Secretariat . Sri Woro B. Harijono – BMKG

2. Keynote Speeches 3. Wave2012, Internation Cooperation, 4. Advanced Study Opportunities 5. Geofon, Seismology in ASEAN, Last Mile

DAY 2: Tuesday, 20 Nov 2012

6. Aims and Fundamentals of Seismology 7. SeisComP3: Introduction and Playback Example 8. SeisComP3 Real Time Data

DAY 4: Thursday, 22 Nov 2012

13. Exercises 14. Seismic Hazard Assessment and Risk Estimation 15. Ground Shaking Site Effects

DAY 3: Wednesday, 21 Nov 2012

9. Phase Interpretation and Methods of Event Location 10. Seismological Instrumentation 11. SeisComP3 Playback Example / Demonstration 12. Integration of New Seismic Stations into SeisComP3 Real Time Data

DAY 5: Friday, 23 Nov 2012

16. Exercises on Instrumentation and Seismic Data Analysis 17. Strong Motion Data and Exercises

Programme (2) DAY 6: Monday, 26 Nov 2012

18. Geodynamics and Subduction 19. Earthquake and Surface Deformation 20. Tsunamis 21. Exercises on Tsunami Generation with Process Simulator

DAY 7: Tuesday, 27 Nov 2012

22. Basics of GPS 23. GPS Instrumentation 24. Tsunami Early Warning: Principles and Components

DAY 9: Thursday, 29Nov 2012

31. Exercises at BMKG Training Room 32. Seismic Hazard Assessment and Risk Estimation

DAY 8: Wednesday, 28 Nov 2012

DAY 10: Friday, 30 Nov 2012

33. Instrumental Microzonation 34. Introduction into Seismic Risk and Loss Assessment Method 35. Earthquake Microzonation in Jakarta

25. Early Warning Infrastructure 26. Decision Support Systems 27. Earthquake Monitoring and

Tsunami Warning

28. Exercise on 11 April 2012 29. Source Mechanism as a Challenge for

Tsunami Warning 30. Warning Level

5-6 cm/yr

12 cm/yr

Crustal  mo+ons  from  GPS  study  (Bock  et  al,  2004)    

DEPTH

EARTHQUAKE  AND  TSUNAMI  EARTHQUAKE  

Earthquake      :  33  x    Tsunami                :  14  x  

>    1  /  year  ∼  1  every  2  years  

Liwa  1994  (3)  

Banggai  2000  (7)  

Mataram  2004  (11)  

Simeulue  2002  (9)  

Kerinci  1995  (4)  

Majalengka  2001  (8)  

Alor  1991  (1)  

Ransiki,  2003  (10)  

Mentawai  2005  (12)  Yogyakarta  2006  (13)   P.  Buru  2006(13)  

Alor,  2004  (11)  

Flores  1992  (2)  

Biak,  1996  (5)  

Maluku  1998  (6)  

Banyuwangi  1994  (3)  

Pangandaran  2006  (13)  

Nias  2005  (12)  

Madina  2006  (13)  

Padang  2007  (14)  

Situbondo  2007  (14)  

Bengkulu  2000  (7)  

Manokwari,  2009  (15)  

Nabire  2004  (11)  

Aceh  2004  (11)  

Nabire  2004  (11)  

Aceh  2012(15)  Aceh  2012(15)  

Aceh  2012  (15)  

NO   YEAR   LOCATION  

1   1991   Alor  

2   1992   Flores  

3   1994   Banyuwangi,  Liwa  

4   1995   Kerinci  

5   1996   Biak  

6   1998   Maluku  

7   2000   Bengkulu,    Banggai  

8   2001   Majalengka  

NO   YEAR   LOCATION  

9   2002   Simelue  

10   2003   Ransiki  

11   2004   Alor,  Aceh,  Nabire  ke-­‐1,  Nabire  Ke-­‐2,  Mataram.  

12   2005   Nias,  Mentawai  

13   2006   Jogyakarta,  Pangandaran  

14   2007   Padang,  Situbondo  

15   2012   Aceh  ke-­‐1,  Aceh  Ke-­‐2,  

•  Formally launched by the President of RI at 11 am, 11 November 2008

•  InaTEWS should disseminate tsunami Warning within 5 minutes after earthquake

•  Version 2 began on 23 Maret 2012

•  Last update June 2012

Indonesia Tsunami Early Warning System

Bottom pressure

gauge

Buoy

Tectonic Plate Hindia Ocean

Satellite

Tide gauge

GPS

BMG Center

???

Source : LIPI - Mod

1. Seismic Data

2. Buoy Data / Confirm

3. Tide Gauges Data

Sirene

• Location : Sea…..? • Mag : > 6.5 RS..? • Depth : < 70km…? • Tsunami Potential !

TSUNAMI

SEISMIC SENSOR

SEA

OPS

BPPT

NC–Buoys

BAKOSURTANAL NC – Tide Gauges NC – GPS

BMKG NC – SEISMIC NC – ACCELERO

NC – InaTEWS (BMKG)

DSS Tsunami Data Base

GSM PROVIDER INTERNET PROVIDER

INSTITUTIONS INTERFACE :

•  BNPB

•  MINISTRY OF HOME AFFAIRS

•  NATIONAL POLICE

•  MILITARY

•  MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATION AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

•  LOCAL GOVERNMENT

•  REGENCY LOCAL GOVERNMENT

ELECTRONIC MEDIA

LOC.GOV

1 1 11 12 2 22 223 80 40 160 500

USER

CELLPHONE DISSEMINATION FACILITIES

COMM: IMARSAT VSAT VSAT GSM (?) VSAT VSAT (?)

BUOY SEISMO ACCELERO TIDE GAUGES GPS

NC: National Centre

SOCIAL COMMUNITY NETWORK

TV, RADIO, MEDIA ON LINE

PROV. GOV DISTRIC GOV

CITY GOV

Missing link ??

DIY 1 sirine

East Java 1 sirens

Palu 1 sirine

Monopole antenna mast Steel tower construction

Exis+ng                :    31      In  progress  :    3    

20

Mulai  November  2008  

21

0:00

0:01

0:02

0:03

0:04

0:05

0:06

0   1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10   11   12   13   14   15  

Wak

tu (h

h:m

m)

Jumlah Peringatan Tsunami

October 25,2010 12 m Tsunami

November 17,2008 10 cmTsunami

January3,2009 35 cmTsunami

September 2,2009 80 cmTsunami

April 7,2010 40 cmTsunami

April 11, 2012 tsunami 1 m

BERITA   VERSI  -­‐  1    (11  Nov  2008  -­‐  23  Maret  2012)  

VERSI  -­‐    2  (Sejak  23  Maret  2012)  

Berita  1  

Informasi  Gempabumi  (parameter  gempabumi)  dan  Potensi  Tsunami  (berpotensi  menimbulkan  tsunami)  

Parameter  gempabumi    dan  Peringatan  Dini  Tsunami  di  area  yang  terancam.    

Berita  2   -­‐  Pemutahiran  parameter  gempabumi  dan  es\masi  waktu  \ba  dan  \ngkat  ancaman  

Berita    3   -­‐  

Informasi  hasil  observasi  \de  gauge,  buoy  dan  Pemutahiran  status  ancaman  tsunami  di  area  terancam  (bisa  beberapa  kali)    

Berita    4   Pernyataan  Peringatan  Dini  Tsunami  berakhir  

Pernyataan  Peringatan  Dini  Tsunami  berakhir  

22  

Threat Level Estimate Tsunami height Reccomendation

AWAS (Major Warning) h ≥ 3 meter Local Government evacuates people

comprehensively

SIAGA (Warning)

0.5 meter < h < 3 meter

Local government evacuate people lo

WASPADA (Advisory) h < 0.5 meter

Local government directs the people to stay away and leave the coastal area.

Level of Tsunami Threat

24

Warning Tsunami in BENGKULU,LAMPUNG,NAD,SUMBAR, SUMUT, EQ Mag:8.9, 11-Apr-12 08:38:29 UTC, Loc:2.31N,92.67E,Dep:10Km::BMKG

Message1

Update Warning Tsunami in NAD,SUMUT,SUMBAR,BENGKULU, LAMPUNG, EQ Mag:8.5, 11-Apr-12 08:38:33 UTC, Loc:2.40N,92.99E,Dep:10Km::BMKG

Message 2

Update Warning Tsunami cause EQ Mag:8.3, 11-Apr-12 08:38:35 UTC, has detected in SABANG (10:00 UTC) 0.06m, MEULABOH(10:04 UTC) 0,8m::BMKG

Message 3

Tsunami Warning caused by EQ Mag:8.1, 11-Apr-12 10:43:11 UTC, end::BMKG

Message 4

Message 1 Tsunami warning via email

29

30

31

Message 3 Tsunami Warning via email

32

33

Message 4 Tsunami Warning via email

34

Threat level

AWAS (Major Warning)

SIAGA (Warning)

WASPADA (Advisory)

Tsunami Warning – Order to evacuate

Local government action

Heavy traffic jam in Banda Aceh for evacuation

Sumber  :  VoA  37

KE ATAS BUKIT

KE ATAS BANGUNAN

Laut

BMG  

3. ASEAN Workshop on Early Warning System for Tsunami Disaster

- Lesson Learned from Aceh Tsunamigenic Earthquake in 11 April 2012 and Improvement of School Preparedness

Recommendations from:

COST Meeting: Seam Reap (2011) and Nay Pyi Daw (2012)

Focuses: 1. The Event of 11

April 2012 2. Increasing

preparedness of School

Participants: ASEAN Member States (Thailand and Malaysia

only)

Instructors: Indonesian Experts

Date: 21-23 November 2012

Venue:

Hermes Hotel, Banda Aceh

Programme

DAY 1: Wednesday, 21 Nov 2012

1. Opening Session . Nada Marsudi – RISTEK 2. Current Status of Indonesian Tsunami Early

Warning Systems 3. The Funding of Disaster Mitigation Activities 4. Earthquake and Tsunami Potentials

5. Real Condition of the Community 6. Communication Systems in Supporting

Early Warning 7. Community Preparedness

DAY 2: Thursday, 22 Nov 2012

8. Preparedness of People at Schools 9. Disaster Risk Analysis 10. Developing SOP 11. Table Top Simulation

DAY 3: Friday, 23 Nov 2012

Excursion – Tsunami Evacuation Exercise at Selected School

Subtansial Difference between Exercise with Reality

Tsunami Drill

Real Event 11 April 2012

Real Situation of 11 April 2012 in Banda Aceh

numbing

anxious

fear panic

frustrated

4. The Way Forward

No Activities Objectives 1 Workshop on Promoting the Role of

Scientists in Disaster Mitigation

•  Promoting the use of science and technology in disaster management activities

•  Sharing experience in channeling the research results into public policy

2 Workshop and Training on Seismic Data Exchange and Warning Dissemination

•  Promoting collaboration among ASEAN disaster experts and practitioners

•  Develop data sharing policy for ASEAN countries

•  Bridging closer interaction with AHA Center

3 Workshop on Lesson Learned from Community Preparedness during 11 April 2012 Twin Earthquakes

•  Sharing experience in the use of social science and social engineering

•  Identifying the importance of local wisdom

Next Workshop

Completed

Thank you very much

Terima kasih

Contact person: pariatmono@ristek.go.id