Post on 01-Apr-2015
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The EEA approach towards an indicator based assessment with a focus on Terrestrial Ecosystems and Biodiversity
O. Schweiger, M. Füssel, A. Jol, A. Marx
Strasbourg, 01.10.2012
ETC/CCA
ETC/CCA
Key relevant EU policy processes
• Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth: ‘strengthen our economies' resilience to climate risks’
• Climate change adaptation (Mainstreaming in EU policies, Clearinghouse on adaptation by early 2012, EU strategy by 2013)
• Water Framework Directive and Floods Directive
• Nature protection directives and policies to halt biodiversity loss
• Marine Strategy Framework Directive; Integrated Coastal Zone Management (ICZM)
• Other (e.g. sectoral, cross-cutting): maritime, agriculture; forestry; human health; disaster risk reduction; infrastructure e.g. energy, transport (regional policies); urban areas
ETC/CCA
Impacts of Europe’s changing climate (EEA/JRC/WHO, 2008), update in 2012
• Atmosphere and climate• Cryosphere (glaciers, snow and ice)• Marine biodiversity and ecosystems• Water quantity• Freshwater quality and biodiversity• Terrestrial ecosystems and
biodiversity• Soil• Agriculture and forestry• Human health• Vulnerability and economic aspects • (sectors)
ETC/CCA
Objectives of the 2012 report
• Present past and projected climate change and impacts through indicators
• Identify sectors and regions most vulnerable/at risk
• Increase awareness of need for adaptation actions
• Present summary of adaptation actions across Europe
• Highlight the need for enhanced monitoring and scenarios at appropriate scale; communication of uncertainties and sharing of information
ETC/CCA
Europe’s key past and projected impacts and risks (SOER2010), to be updated/extended
ETC/CCA
Draft scope of the report, main structure
1. Introduction, EU Adaptation Policy, Indicator selection, Uncertainties2. Changes in the climate system
• Key climate variables• Cryosphere
3. Climate impacts on environmental systems• Ocenas and Marine environment• Coastal zones• Inland waters• Terrestrial ecosystems and Biodiversity• Soil
4. Climate impacts on socio-economic systems and health• Agriculture• Forests and Forestry• Fisheries and aquaculture• Human health• Energy • Transport• Tourism
5. Vulnerability to climate change6. Indicator and data needs
ETC/CCA
Terrestrial biodiversity indicators
• Conservation status
• Phenology: Plants and Animals
• Species Distribution
• plant species
• animal species (incl Arctic species index; butterflies and birds)
• Species Ecosystem Relationships
Invasive alien species: Examples on plants and animals
ETC/CCA
Spring trends of phenology in Europe 1971-2000
Note: Each dot represents the mean for spring at a station. Dot size adjusted for clarity. A negative phenological trend corresponds to an earlier onset of spring.Source: (Estrella, Sparks, und Menzel 2009)
ETC/CCA
Spatial pattern of trend in egg-laying dates of the pied flycatcher 1980-2004 corresponds to temperature trend
Note: Dots: weather stations used to calculate changes in local egg-laying dates (derived from temperature data); triangles: location of pied flycatcher laying date time series.Source: (Both und Marvelde 2007)
ETC/CCA
Observed latitudinal shifts of four species over 25 years in Britain
Note: Observed latitudinal
shifts of the northern range
boundaries of species within four
exemplar taxonomic groups:
Spiders (85 species), ground
beetles (59 species), butterflies
(29 species), and grasshoppers
and allies (22 species). Positive
latitudinal shifts indicate
movement toward the north
(pole); negative values indicate
shifts toward the south (Equator).
Horizontal lines mark the
Median, boxes the 25 to 75%
quartile and whisker the range
(up to 1.5 times the
interqwuartile distance). Open
Circles are outliers.
Source: Modified after (Chen u.
a. 2011)
ETC/CCA
European variations in the temporal trend of bird and butterfly CTI.
Note: A temporal increase in CTI directly reflects that the species assemblage of the site is increasingly composed of individuals belonging to species dependent on higher temperature. The height of a given arrow is proportional to the temporal trend and its direction corresponds to the sign of the slope (from south to north for positive slopes). The arrow is opaque if the trend is significant.Source: Devictor u. a. 2012)
ETC/CCA
Changes in mammalian species richness until 2100
Note: Units in percentage, changes under two climate scenarios B1 (left) and A2 (right) in a 10’ resolution
Source: (Levinsky u. a. 2007)
ETC/CCA
Projected changes in the climate niche space of the Small Tortoise shell 2050 and 2080
Note: Future distribution of climate niche space of Aglais urticae under the A2 climate change scenario
Northern parts of Europe are expected to remain suitable for the Small Tortoiseshell under all scenarios, but large
areas of central Europe would become unsuitable. The worst case loss is 55% of its
climatic niche by 2080 under no dispersal or 46% loss under full dispersal.
Source: (J. Settele et al., 2008)
ETC/CCA
Time schedule 2012 report
Period Activity
April - Oct/Nov 2011 ETC CCA Technical paper on evaluation of climate change state, impact and vulnerability indicators
15 June 2011 1st Advisory Group meeting
1 November 2011 first draft indicator chapters
30 Nov 2011 2nd Advisory Group meeting
Feb 2012 second draft chapters including indicators
April 2012 3rd Advisory Group meeting
May 2012 final draft chapters and full report
June-July 2012 external EIONET and other review
August-Sep 2012 inclusion of comments
October/November 2012 final editing, layouting
21 November 2012 publication and launch
DONE
ETC/CCA
Expected average percentage of stable area of 856 plant species for two different climate scenarios 2100
Note: The S550e scenario corresponds to a stabilisation at 550 ppm CO2 equivalent and a global mean temperature increase of 2°C, the baseline scenario corresponds to a global mean temperature increase of more than 3°C.Source: (Alkemade, Bakkenes, und Eickhout 2011)
ETC/CCA
Actual and potential future alien plant invasion hotspots (2081-90) under two extreme climate scenarios
Note: Potential future alien plant invasion hotspots in Germany and Austria under climate change, based on total 30 invasive alien vascular plant species. ColorsColours mark number of invasive alien species being at least suitable in an area.Source: (Kleinbauer u. a. 2010)
ETC/CCA
Spatial mismatches of the Portuguese Dappled White butterfly (Euchloe tagis) and its host plants
Note: future simulation under BAMBU (Business-As-Might-Be-Usual, Climate A2) scenario.
Source: (Oliver Schweiger et al. 2012)
ETC/CCA