Post on 29-Mar-2015
1COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India
Mitigating Environmental Emissions Mitigating Environmental Emissions from the Urban Transport Systemfrom the Urban Transport System
Asian Regional Research Programme in Energy, Environment and Climate (ARRPEEC)
AsianAsian InstituteInstitute ofof Technology, ThailandTechnology, Thailand
Ram M. ShresthaS.C. BhattacharyaNazrul IslamN. T. Kim Oanh
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 2AIT
Cities CoveredCities Covered
Cities Country
Beijing and Hangzhou
China
Delhi and Mumbai
India
Jakarta and Bandung
Indonesia
Ho Chi Minh City
Vietnam
Manila Philippines
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 3AIT
City ProfileCity Profile
City Category Area (km2)
Population (million)
Average Annual
Population Growth Rate
(%) Delhi (2001) Capital 1,483 14.2 4.3 Beijing (1998) Capital 16,807 10.9 1.4 Manila (2000) Capital 636 10.4 2.3 Mumbai (1991) Commercial 4,355 9.9 3.0 Jakarta (1997) Capital 660 9.5 4.2 Hangzhou (1998) Commercial 16,596 6.1 1.1 HCMC (1996) Commercial 2,000 4.7 2.4 Bandung (1997) Commercial 164 2.3 1.7
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 4AIT
Project NetworkProject Network
AIT—Asian Institute of Technology, Thailand
DOSTE– Department of Science, Technology and Environment, Vietnam Prof. Nguyen Thien Nhan
ERI—Energy Research Institute, China Dr. Zhou Dadi
IGIDR—Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research Prof. Jyoti Parikh
ITB—Institut Technologi Bandung, Indonesia Dr. Tatang H. Soerawidjaja
SATMP—Society for the Advancement of Technology in the Philippines, Philippines Dr. Joy V. Abrenica
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 5AIT
Study ObjectivesStudy Objectives
To analyze the demand for urban transport services and associated energy demand and environmental emissions;
To analyze and select the technical options for energy efficiency improvement and mitigation of GHGs and other harmful emissions from the urban transport system; and
To identify and rank the barriers to the introduction of selected technical options to mitigate environmental emissions from the urban transport system.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 6AIT
Travel Demand, Energy Travel Demand, Energy Demand and Associated Demand and Associated
Environmental EmissionsEnvironmental Emissions
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 7AIT
Projection of Travel DemandProjection of Travel Demand
GDP Growth Rate for BAU Projection (%)
City Bandung Beijing Delhi Hangzhou HCMC Jakarta Manila Mumbai
GDP growth rate
6.7 8.5-11.6 5.6 9.2-10.5 8.5-13 8.3 4.9 6.6
Alternative Scenario 1 is 1.5 times BAU GDP growth rate
Alternative Scenario 2 is 1.25 times BAU GDP growth rate
Alternative Scenario 3 is 0.75 times BAU GDP growth rate
Alternative Scenario 4 is 0.5 times BAU GDP growth rate
GDP Growth Rate for Alternative Scenarios
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 8AIT
Demand for Transport Services (p-km): Demand for Transport Services (p-km): BAU ProjectionBAU Projection
•Annual average growth rate of demand for transport services would be in the range of 3.3% (Beijing) to 7.3% (HCMC) during 1998-2020.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
bill
ion
p-k
m
Bandung
Beijing
Delhi
Hangzhou
HCMC
Jakarta
Manila
Mumbai
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 9AIT
Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Bandung and Beijingin Bandung and Beijing
2005
Bus7%
Car26%
Trucks3%
2-Wheeler64%
2020
Bus10%
Car29%
Trucks2%
2-Wheeler59%
Bandung
Beijing
2005Bus1%
Car74%
2-Wheeler13%
Trucks12%
2020
Bus0%
Trucks9%2-Wheeler
7%
Car84%
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 10AIT
Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Delhi and Hangzhouin Delhi and Hangzhou
2005
Car32%
Bus1%
Others2%
Trucks4%
2-Wheeler61%
2020
Car28%
2-Wheeler66%
Bus0%Trucks
4%
Others2%
2005
Bus6%
Car50%
Trucks25%
2-Wheeler19%
2020
Bus2%
Car87%
2-Wheeler7%
Trucks4%
Delhi
Hangzhou
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 11AIT
Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in HCMC and Jakartain HCMC and Jakarta
2005
2-Wheeler98%
Bus0%
Car1%
Trucks1%
2020
2-Wheeler96%
Bus0%
Car3%Trucks
1%
2005
Car18%
Bus12%
Others1%Trucks
12%
2-Wheeler57%
2020Trucks
13%
Others0%
Bus10% Car
16%
2-Wheeler61%
HCMC
Jakarta
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 12AIT
Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) Vehicle share (of the total vehicles) in Manila and Mumbaiin Manila and Mumbai
2005Others51%
Bus1% Car
34%
2-Wheeler9%
Trucks5%
2020
Trucks3%
2-Wheeler8%
Car12%Bus
0%
Others77%
2005
Car34%
Bus1%
Others10%Trucks
3%
2-Wheeler52%
2020
Car26%
Bus1%
Others8%
Trucks3%
2-Wheeler62%
Manila
Mumbai
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 13AIT
Change in Model Mix (2005-2020)Change in Model Mix (2005-2020)
Vehicle Type
Increased Share Decreased Share
Bus Bandung Beijing, Delhi, Hangzhou Jakarta, Manila, Mumbai
Car Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou, HCMC
Delhi, Jakarta, Manila Mumbai
2-Wheeler Delhi, Jakarta, Mumbai Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou, HCMC
Truck Jakarta, Mumbai Bandung, Beijing, Delhi Hangzhou, HCMC, Manila
Others Delhi, Jakarta, Manila Mumbai
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 14AIT
Car Ownership in 1998 and 2020 Car Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population)(Units/1000 population)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Bandung
Beijin
g
Delh
i
Hangzhou
HC
MC
Jakart
a
Manila*
Mum
bai
Un
its/1
000 p
op
ula
ton
1998
2020
•Beijing would have the highest car ownership among the cities (248 in 2020). However, the number would be still less than that in OECD countries.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 15AIT
Bus Ownership in 1998 and 2020 Bus Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population)(Units/1000 population)
• Beijing would have the lowest bus ownership during the planning horizon.
0
5
10
15
20
25
Bandu
ng
Beijing Delh
i
Hangz
hou
HCMC
Jaka
rta
Man
ila
Mum
bai
Un
its/
1000
po
pu
lato
n1998
2020
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 16AIT
Two-wheeler Ownership in 1998 and Two-wheeler Ownership in 1998 and 2020 (Units/1000 population)2020 (Units/1000 population)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800U
nit
s/1
000 p
op
ula
ton
1998
2020
• 2-wheeler ownership would be relatively low in Beijing, Hangzhou and Manila
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 17AIT
Annual Average Growth Rate of Total Transport Annual Average Growth Rate of Total Transport Energy Demand (1998-2020): BAU Projection Energy Demand (1998-2020): BAU Projection
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14A
AG
R (
%)
•AAGR is above 5% in all Cities
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 18AIT
Share of CNG in Total Energy Demand in Share of CNG in Total Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020 (%)2005 and 2020 (%)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Beijing Delhi Hangzhou Jakarta Mumbai
CN
G (
%)
2005
2020
• The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by Hangzhou Beijing and Jakarta.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 19AIT
Average Annual Growth Rate of COAverage Annual Growth Rate of CO22
Emission During 1998-2020 (%)Emission During 1998-2020 (%)
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%
•Average annual growth rate: in the range of 3.1% (in Jakarta) to 12% (in Manila).
•Total transport CO2 emissions from the eight cities: 53.8 million
tonnes in 2020.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 20AIT
Ratio of CORatio of CO22 in 2020 to the Base Year in 2020 to the Base Year
(1998) Emission: BAU Projection (1998) Emission: BAU Projection I
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Ra
tio
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 21AIT
Modal Share in COModal Share in CO22 Emissions in Emissions in
Bandung and BeijingBandung and Beijing
Bandung
Beijing
1998
2-Wheelers32%
Trucks15%
Bus5%
Car48%
2020
2-Wheelers34%
Bus22%
Trucks11%
Car33%
1998
Bus11%
Car43%
Trucks43%
2-Wheelers3%
2020
Bus2%
Trucks16%
2-Wheelers16%
Car66%
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 22AIT
Modal Share in COModal Share in CO22 Emissions in Emissions in
Delhi and HangzhouDelhi and Hangzhou
Delhi
Hangzhou
1998
Car36%
Others10%
Bus26%
2-Wheelers12%
Trucks16%
2020
2-Wheelers6%
Car45%
Bus23%
Others6%Trucks
20%
1998
Car37%
2-Wheelers3%
Trucks35%
Bus25%
2020
Car57%
2-Wheelers8%
Trucks10% Bus
25%
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 23AIT
Modal Share in COModal Share in CO22 Emissions in Emissions in
HCMC and JakartaHCMC and Jakarta1998
2-Wheelers61%
Trucks32%
Car5%
Bus1%Others
1%
2020
2-Wheelers56%
Car7%Trucks
29%
Others2%
Bus6%
1998
Car41%
2-Wheelers14%
Trucks26%
Others2%
Bus17%
2020
2-Wheelers18%
Trucks33%
Others2%
Bus13%
Car34%
HCMC
Jakarta
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 24AIT
Modal Share in COModal Share in CO22 Emissions in Emissions in
Manila and MumbaiManila and Mumbai
1998
Car50%
Bus4%Others
34%
2-Wheelers4%
Trucks8%
2020
Trucks5%
2-Wheelers3%
Car46%
Bus3%
Others43%
1998
Car35%
2-Wheelers5%
Trucks6%
Others19%
Bus35%
2020
Car30%
2-Wheelers7%
Trucks8%
Others10% Bus
45%
Manila
Mumbai
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 25AIT
Changes in Modal Share in COChanges in Modal Share in CO22
EmissionEmissionVehicle Type
Increase Decrease
Bus Bandung, HCMC, Mumbai
Beijing, Delhi, Hangzhou Jakarta, Manila
Car Beijing, Delhi, Hangzhou, HCMC
Bandung, Jakarta, Manila, Mumbai
2-Wheeler Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou Jakarta, Mumbai
Delhi, HCMC
Truck Delhi, Jakarta, Mumbai
Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou, HCMC, Manila
Others HCMC, Jakarta, Manila
Delhi, Mumbai
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 26AIT
Ratio of Local Pollutants in 2020 to the Ratio of Local Pollutants in 2020 to the Base Year (1998) Emission: BAU ProjectionBase Year (1998) Emission: BAU Projection
Among the cities, Mumbai would have the lower ratio due to the higher share of buses, use of CNG and penetration of 4-stroke 2-wheelers.
HCMC would have the higher ratio due to the higher share of 2-wheelers.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0R
ati
o
CO
NOx
SOx
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 27AIT
Technical Options for Technical Options for COCO22 Emission Mitigation Emission Mitigation
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 28AIT
Technology Options Considered for Technology Options Considered for Emission MitigationEmission Mitigation
Options Bandung Beijing Delhi Hangzhou HCMC Jakarta Manila Mumbai CNG1 - - LPG2 - - - BOV - -
MRTS - - - Catalytic Converter - - I & M5 - - - - CVID6 - - - - Hybrid Car - - - - - - 4-Stroke 2-Wheeler - - - - - - Efficient diesel car - - - - - - Ethanol3 - - - - - - Bio-Diesel4 - - - - - - Alco-Diesel (bus and truck)
- - - - - - -
Coco-Methyl ester (bus and truck)
- - - - - - -
Truck E100 - - - - - - - 1 Bus and car in Delhi, Bus, car and 3-wheeler in Mumbai, bus in Beijing and Hangzhou, bus, car, jeep, truck and pick up in Jakarta and bus in Manila. 2 Bus and car in Beijing and Hangzhou, bus, car, pick up, jeep, minibus and truck in Jakarta and Bundung and taxi in HCMC. 3 Pick up and minibus in Jakarta and minibus in Bandung 4 bus, car, jeep, pick up and truck in Bandung and Jakarta 5 I & M- Inspection and Maintenance, 6 CVID-Computer Variable Ignition Device Option selected
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 29AIT
Least Cost COLeast Cost CO22 Mitigation Options Mitigation Options
Cities 0% Reduction 10% Reduction Bandung ADO buses (32.8%)
LPG buses (18.3%) Bio-diesel buses (18.3%) ADO minibuses (13.6%) Others (17%)
ADO buses (32.8%) LPG buses (18.3%) Bio-diesel buses (11.5%) Bio-diesel minibuses (6.6%) Others (30.8)
Beij ing Gasoline cars (42.7%) Diesel buses (33.5%) MRTS (14.2%) Diesel cars (3.7%) Others (5.9%)
Diesel buses (33.5%) Diesel Cars (28.3%) Gasoline cars (18.3%) MRTS (14.2%) Others (5.7%)
Delhi CNG buses (39.8%) Gasoline cars (22.4%) 4-S. 2-wheelers (17.2%) Diesel buses (11.6%) Others (9%)
CNG buses (39.8%) Gasoline cars (24.3%) 4-S. 2-wheelers (17.2%) Diesel buses (11.6%) Others (7.1%)
Hangzhou Diesel buses (71.9%) Gasoline cars (14.8%) MRTS (9.7%) LPG cars (3.6%) Others (0%)
Diesel buses (71.9%) MRTS (9.7%) Diesel cars (6.0%) Hybrid cars (4.6%) Others (7.9%)
ADO—Additive diesel oil
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 30AIT
Least Cost COLeast Cost CO22 Mitigation Options Mitigation Options
Contd..Contd..
Cities 0% Reduction 10% Reduction Jakarta Gasoline minibus (26.8%)
ADO pick up (11.6%) CNG buses (11.3%) Bio-diesel buses (11.6%) Others (38.7%)
Gasoline minibus (22.8%) ADO buses (11.6%) CNG buses (11.6%) Bio-diesel buses (11.6%) Others (42.4%)
Manila Gasoline UV (25.8%) Diesel UV (17.6%) Gasoline cars (17.6%) Diesel buses (17.4%) Others (21.6%)
Car with cat. convert. (37.1%) Gasoline cars (17.5%) Diesel UV (15.4%) CNG buses (10.6%) Others (19.4%)
Mumbai Diesel buses (74.1%) Gasoline buses (10.5%) Diesel 3-wheelers (8.5%) CNG 3-wheelers (2.5%) Others (4.4%)
Diesel buses (70.4%) Gasoline cars (12.6%) Diesel 3-wheelers (6.0%) CNG buses (3.7%) Others (7.3%)
MRTS is cost effective at 20%, 40%, 25% and 40% CO2 reduction
target in Bandung, Beijing, Hangzhou and HCMC respectively.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 31AIT
Impact of COImpact of CO22 Mitigation Target on Mitigation Target on
Emissions of Local PollutantsEmissions of Local Pollutants
Local emission reduction objectives could still be served by focusing on CO2 emission reductions.
In the case of Beijing and Hangzhou, the introduction of efficient diesel car would reduce the emission level of CO, NOx and NMVOC. However, it would increase the emission of TSP.
TSP emission in Delhi would be reduced by 13% under 10% CO2
reduction target.
In Mumbai. TSP emission would be reduced 14% to 10%.
In the case of Manila, CO emissions would fall by 32% at 10% CO2 reduction.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 32AIT
Selected Technical Options to Selected Technical Options to Mitigate COMitigate CO22 Emission Emission
Bandung: LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio-ethanol buses
Beijing: CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS
Delhi: CNG buses, CNG cars and 4-stroke 2-wheelers
Jakarta: CNG buses, LPG buses, bio-diesel buses and bio-ethanol buses
Hangzhou: CNG buses, diesel cars and MRTS
HCMC: MRT, Diesel bus
Manila: CNG buses, alco-diesel buses and (coconut methyl ester) CME buses
Mumbai: CNG cars, CNG 3-wheelers and BOV 3-wheelers
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 33AIT
Barriers to the Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient Adoption of Efficient
OptionsOptions
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 34AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of Barriers to the Adoption of Efficient OptionsEfficient Options
• Barriers varies from:
Country to country
City to City
Technology to Technology
• Technology specific barriers for each city were identified and the analysis of barriers are carried out using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 35AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of CNG BusBarriers to the Adoption of CNG Bus
Beijing Hangzhou Manila
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Institutional and administrative barrier
High cost of engine conversion
Lack of public preference
Lack of public preference
Not able to use duel fuel
High initial cost
Lack of proper financing mechanism
High investment for distribution infrastructure
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 36AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of Bio-fuel Barriers to the Adoption of Bio-fuel Buses in ManilaBuses in Manila
Alco-Diesel Buses
CME Buses
High cost of local Alcohol
Amending the Clean Air Act
Uncertainty of impact on performance
Uncertainty of impact on performance
Not able to use duel fuel
Resistance from interest groups*
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 37AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of CNG CarsBarriers to the Adoption of CNG Cars
Delhi
Mumbai
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Additional cost Lack of enforcing mechanism
Availability of technology
Additional cost
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 38AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of MRTSBarriers to the Adoption of MRTS
Beijing Hangzhou HCMC
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Institutional and administrative barriers
High capital cost
Lack of public preference
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Private vehicle usage psychology
Institutional and administrative barriers
Lack of public preference
Public vehicle fee
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 39AIT
Barriers to the Adoption of 4-Stroke Barriers to the Adoption of 4-Stroke 2-wheelers in Delhi2-wheelers in Delhi
Additional cost Lack of enforcing mechanism Inadequate resources and infrastructure
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 40AIT
Thank you
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 41AIT
Additional Additional InformationInformation
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 42AIT
Project ApproachProject Approach
Project Development(AIT, NRIs, Regional Experts/Policy Makers)
Development of Methodology(AIT)
Review of Methodology(NRIs)
Country Case Studies(NRIs)
Review of Case Studies(AIT)
Cross-Country Synthesis (AIT)
Publications(AIT, NRIs)
Dissemination(NRIs, AIT)
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 43AIT
MethodologyMethodology
LEAP ModelLEAP Model
Econometric ModelEconometric Model
GDP
Vehicle Stocks
Emission
Energy Demand
Emission Factor
Energy Intensity
Utilization,
Occupancy Rate
Spread SheetModel
Spread SheetModel
Transport Demand (p-km)
Population
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 44AIT
Modal Mix in 2005 and 2020 under Modal Mix in 2005 and 2020 under the BAU Case, %the BAU Case, %
City Year Bus Car 2-Wheeler Trucks Othersa Total Vehicles (103 units)
Bandung 2005 7.1 24.8 60.3 2.7 NA 429 2020 9.8 27.8 57.6 2.0 NA 1,117 Beijing 2005 0.5 74.5 13.3 11.7 NA 2,261 2020 0.2 84.0 7.1 8.6 NA 4,630 Delhi 2005 0.6 31.7 61.3 4.5 2.0 3,508 2020 0.4 28.0 65.3 3.9 2.4 8,854 Hangzhou 2005 5.8 50.2 19.1 24.9 NA 108 2020 2.3 83.1 6.5 3.8 NA 409 HCMC 2005 0.2 0.6 97.8 1.3 NA 2,717 2020 0.2 3.0 95.8 1.1 NA 6,740 Jakarta 2005 12.1 18.5 57.1 11.8 0.4 3,606 2020 10.4 15.8 60.9 12.6 0.2 8,853 Manila 2005 0.5 33.3 9.1 4.6 51.5 2,458 2020 0.2 13.0 7.9 2.9 81.3u 18,134 Mumbai 2005 1.5 33.5 51.5 3.1 10.5 876 2020 1.1 26.5 60.9 3.2 8.4 2,519 a Others include Jeepny in Manila, 3-Wheelers in Delhi, Jakarta, Mumbai and Lambro in HCMC NA=not applicable
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 45AIT
Structure of the Projected Energy Structure of the Projected Energy Demand in 2005 and 2020Demand in 2005 and 2020
Fuel Share (%)
Gasoline Diesel LPG CNG Electricity
Total Energy Demand (106 GJ)
City
2005 2020 2005 2020 2005 2020 2005 2020 2005 2020 2005 2020
Bandung 74.4 75.4 25.6 24.6 NA NA NA NA NA NA 21.3 57.3 Beijing 69.3 75.4 21.8 15.9 7.6 6.9 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.7 82.9 140.5 Delhi 52.7 46.2 20.8 17.7 NA NA 26.2 34.9 0.2 1.2 67.5 136.9 Hangzhou 68.5 62.5 23.9 17.9 7.1 17.5 0.3 1.9 0.3 0.2 5.8 22.7 HCMC 68.0 71.5 32.4 28.5 NA NA NA NA NA NA 17.3 49.3 Jakarta 50.1 48.0 49.0 51.1 NA NA 0.9 0.9 NA NA 242.5 571.7 Manila 55.2 48.4 44.3 51.4 NA NA 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.1 93.3 598.0 Mumbai 35.7 25.1 28.8 7.4 NA NA 34.8 65.5 0.7 2.2 29.6 60.0 NA - not available
•The share of cleaner fuels, i.e. CNG, would increase in the future especially in the Indian cities of Mumbai and Delhi followed by the Chinese cities of Beijing and Hangzhou.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 46AIT
Ratio of Environmental Emission in Ratio of Environmental Emission in 2020 to the Base Year Emission2020 to the Base Year Emission
City CO2 CO SOx NOx TSPBandung 3.9 4.0 3.5 3.8 2.7Beijing 4 1.2 1.5 3.5 6.2Delhi 3.4 0.7 1.1 0.7 1.4Hangzhou 5.6 5.3 6.0 2.0 NA
HCMC 6.5 5.9 6.9 4.7 NA
Jakarta) 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 2.1Manila 3.3 3.3 3.3 1.8 3Mumbai 3.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.7
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 47AIT
Flow Chart of MethodologyFlow Chart of Methodology
Vehicle-Mix Model
CostsCosts Candidate Options
Candidate Options
Vehicle-km by mode
Vehicle-km by modeTotal CostTotal CostVehicular
Mix
Vehicular Mix
Emission Factor
Emission Factor
Total Emissions
Total Emissions
Transport Demand Data
Transport Demand Data
Vehicle Penetration Rate
Fuel Availability
Emission target
Vehicle Penetration Rate
Fuel Availability
Emission target
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 48AIT
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Least-Cost Vehicle Options Bandung and JakartaBandung and Jakarta
•In the base case, the shares of gasoline vehicles in total passenger transport service supplied in both cities would be decreasing while that of additive diesel oil (ADO) and LPG would be increasing
•At 20% reduction target, LPG and bio-diesel vehicles (car, minibus, truck, and bus), and MRT would be cost effective options to meet the CO2 reduction target
in Bandung. The share of bio-diesel vehicles at 20% target would be 24.6% in 2020.
•In the case of Jakarta, LPG car would be selected at 10% reduction target and bio-diesel vehicles (car, bus, jeep, minibus, bus, pick up and truck) and MRT would be selected at 40% reduction target. The share of bio-diesel vehicles and MRT at 40% reduction target would be 42.6% and 4.8% respectively in 2020 in Jakarta.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 49AIT
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd..Contd.. Beijing and HangzhouBeijing and Hangzhou
Under Base Case, the shares of gasoline car and diesel buses on total passenger kilometer supplied would increase in both cities.
To achieve a reduction of 10% CO2 emission, gasoline cars needs to be replaced by diesel cars.
At higher emission reduction target of 40% for Beijing and 25% for Hangzhou, the share of MRTS would increase substantially.
The shares of diesel-buses in total passenger transport service supplied in different years would reduce significantly when the emission reduction target is increased from 30% to 40% for Beijing and 20% to 25% for Hangzhou.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 50AIT
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd..Contd.. Delhi and MumbaiDelhi and Mumbai
Among the technologies considered, CNG buses would supply highest share of the transport services in passenger-km in Delhi while diesel buses would supply highest share of the transport services in Mumbai.
In Delhi, at higher emission reduction target level of 25%, diesel buses would replace the gasoline and diesel cars.
In the case of Mumbai, CNG buses would replace diesel buses at the emission reduction target of 5% while at higher emission reduction target of 30% battery operated 3-wheelers (2.5% in 2020) would replace the diesel 3-wheelers.
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 51AIT
Least-Cost Vehicle Options Least-Cost Vehicle Options Contd..Contd.. ManilaAlco-diesel bus, alco-diesel trucks and cars with catalytic converters would be
cost effective technologies at the lower CO2 emission mitigation target of 5% in
Manila.As the emission mitigation target is increased, the share of these three
technologies would be increased, while the share of diesel buses and diesel trucks would decrease. At 15% reduction target, 99 % of the trucks would be using alco-diesel in 2020.
HCMCVans would be a cost effective technology at lower CO2 emission reduction
target of 3% in HCMC. At the emission reduction target of 3%, van would replace diesel buses.
At higher emission reduction targets of 12%, electric 2-wheelers would also be cost effective technology. Its share would be 27% at 12 % CO2 reduction target
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 52AIT
Marginal Cost of CO2 Abatement (MAC), US$/tonne of CO2
•MAC would be relatively high for Manila (178 $/tonne of CO2 at
5% reduction target) and relatively low for HCMC (0.5 $/tonne of CO2 at 6% reduction target).
•The MAC values are relatively low in Beijing, Delhi and Mumbai.
Marginal Abatement Cost
City
Total Cumulative CO2
Emission (106 tonnes)
5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 40%
Bandung 19 121 204 412 132,503 NA NA NA Beijing 105 29 33 NA 37 NA 39 253 Delhi 30 35 44 49 66 115 NA NA Hangzhou 6 76 89 NA 100 962 NA NA Jakarta 200 NA 112 NA 156 NA 269 246215 Manila 182 178 327 528 NA NA NA NA Mumbai 12 17 NA 19 21 24 47 NA
the figure for HCMC are 0.1, 0.5, 1.3 and 2.1 $/tonne of CO2 at 3%, 6%, % and 12% reduction targets respectively. NA – not available
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 53AIT
Three important Barriers in Beijing and Three important Barriers in Beijing and Hangzhou for the Selected OptionsHangzhou for the Selected Options
Beijing CNG Buses Diesel Cars MRTS
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of public preference
Lack of public preference
Lack of public preference
High initial cost Lack of infrastructure Institutional and administrative barriers
Hangzhou
CNG Buses Diesel Car MRTS Institutional and administrative barrier
Lack of public preference
Institutional and administrative barriers
Lack of public preference
Institutional and administrative
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of proper financing mechanism
Lack of public preference
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 54AIT
Three important Barriers in Delhi and Three important Barriers in Delhi and Mumbai for the Selected OptionsMumbai for the Selected Options
Delhi CNG Buses CNG Cars 4-Stroke 2-Wheelers
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Additional cost
Additional cost Additional cost Lack of enforcing mechanism
Lack of enforcing mechanism
Availability of technology
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Mumbai
CNG Cars CNG 3-Wheelers BOV 3-Wheelers Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Inadequate resources and infrastructure
Additional cost
Lack of enforcing mechanism
Availability of technology
Availability of technology
Additional cost Additional cost Lack of awareness
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 55AIT
Three important Barriers in Three important Barriers in HCMC for the Selected OptionsHCMC for the Selected Options
MRTS MRTS + Bus Diesel Buses High capital cost High capital cost Private vehicle
usage psychology Private vehicle usage psychology
Private vehicle usage psychology
Bad road network
Public vehicle fee Subsidization on public vehicle
Poor services
COP8, 01 November 2002, New Delhi, India 56AIT
Three important Barriers in Three important Barriers in Manila for the Selected OptionsManila for the Selected Options
Alco-Diesel Buses CME Buses CNG Buses High cost of local Alcohol
Amending the Clean Air Act
High cost of engine conversion
Uncertainty of impact on performance
Uncertainty of impact on performance
Not able to use duel fuel
Not able to use duel fuel
Resistance from interest groups*
High investment for distribution infrastructure
* Resistance of interest groups to divert coconut oil from exports to domestic use