Post on 02-Jan-2016
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Agenda Topic: Space Weather Modeling and the Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM)
Presented By: Rodney Viereck(NWS/NCEP/SWPC)Contributors:
Rashid Akmaev (SWPC) George Millward (SWPC and CIRES)Tim Fuller-Rowell (SWPC and CIRES)
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Operational System Attribute(s)
System Name Acronym Areal Coverage Horz Res
Cycle Freq
Fcst Length
(hr)
Wang-Sheeley-Arge Enlil WSA-Enlil Sun to Earth 2 hr 72 hr
Space Weather Modeling Framework (operational in Oct 2015)
SWMF - Geospace
Magnetosphere 1 min 0.5 hr
Whole Atmosphere Model (extended GFS) (operational in 2018)
WAM Global up to 600 km alt
200 km
1-3 hr 120 hr
Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics Model
IPE Global 100 – 1000 km alt
5 min 72 hr
System Attributes
WSA-Enlil No DA
SWMF Geospace
No DA
WDAS GDAS + middle atmosphere data between 60 and 100 km
IDAS Ionosphere/thermosphere data assimilation (100 – 600 km) currently under development
System Data Assimilation or Initialization Technique
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Why WAM Will Be Operational
Primary stakeholders and requirement drivers• Space Weather Prediction Center• Space weather customers (GPS, Radio Communication, Satellite Drag,…)
Airlines, satellites, agriculture, transportation, emergency managers, DOD, etc… What products are the models contributing to?
Multi-day forecasts of thermosphere and ionosphere What product aspects are you trying to improve with your development
plans? Improved ionosphere specification and forecast accuracy Global coverage Multi-day ionosphere and thermosphere forecasts
Top 3 System Performance Strengths• Unique capability to model and forecast all drivers of the Ionosphere/thermosphere
system• Leveraging GDAS/GFS multi-day forecasts of troposphere for space weather• Improved troposphere forecasts
Top 3 System Performance Challenges • New physics, chemistry, and dynamics for the middle and upper atmosphere• New data assimilation scheme required for ionosphere/thermosphere
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System Evolution Over the Next 5 Years
Major forcing factors• Expanded use of technologies impacted by space weather (new customers)• New physical understanding and new modeling capabilities provide new forecast
opportunities Science and development priorities
• Adding physics of middle and upper atmosphere to WAM• Including real-time space weather drivers in WAM • Improving gravity wave parameterization (adding non-orographic gravity waves)• Coupling the neutral atmosphere to the ionosphere (WAM to the IPE ionosphere
model)• Developing DA systems for the upper atmosphere and ionosphere
What are you top challenges to evolving the system(s) to meet stakeholder requirements?• Monumental effort to develop, validate, and “operationalize” WAM and IPE• Ensuring that space weather modeling requirements are included in modeling
system upgrades.• Horizontal diffusion, deep atmosphere, T>2000K, U>1000m/s, Thermodynamics eq.
solved for enthalpy, tracers, etc…
Potential opportunities for simplification going forward• Collaboration in the middle atmosphere (extending GFS and GDAS to 100 km)• Leveraging model improvements such as NGGPS
Backup Slides
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Top 3 Things You Need From the UMAC
1. #1…..
2. #2……
3. #3……
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Thermosphere
Mesosphere
Global Forecast Systems
Model0 – 60 km
Whole Atmosphere Model
(Neutral Atmosphere)0 – 600 km
Ionosphere Plasmasphere
Electrodynamics Model
Model Development in the Thermosphere-Ionosphere: Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA)
Whole Atmosphere Model (WAM = Extended GFS)Ionosphere Plasmasphere Electrodynamics (IPE)Integrated Dynamics in Earth’s Atmosphere (IDEA = WAM+IPE)
Whole Atmosphere
Model
Stratosphere
Troposphere
• WAM follows a latitude longitude pressure grid system• IPE grid follows the magnetic field lines of Earth
2015 February 10
Space Weather Drivers• Solar EUV/X-ray Irradiance• Geomagnetic Storms
2009 Sudden Strat. Warm Event: WAM vs GFS ForecastWAM Predicts Strat-Warm 2 Days Before GFS
WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 13, 2009 of T and U @ 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis.
WAM and GFS forecast from Jan 15, 2009 of T and U @ 10 hPa vs GDAS analysis.
The full impact of WAM on tropospheric forecasts needs to be evaluated
• ptop = 1.5×10-7 Pa (O exobase)• T62L150 (~ 22, ~ 0 – 600 km)• Free runs or A/F cycle (WDAS)• Composition dependent R & Cp
• Height dependent g(z)
Physics• Horizontal & vertical mixing (no
“sponge”)• Radiative heating: EUV, UV, &
non-LTE IR• Major neutrals (O, O2, N2)
WAM = Extended GFS
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GFS top 99.97% of mass
Desirable• Extend higher, to He exobase• More global tracers
1. 3D physics (not in vertical columns): horizontal diffusion
2. Thermodynamics equation solved for enthalpy
3. Deep atmosphere• g(z)• r = rE + z
4. Tracers
5. Tolerance: T ≥ 2000 K and U ≥ 1000 m/s
WAM NGGPS requirements
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In W
AM
NG
GP
S R
eqs