Post on 16-Jul-2015
Prof Robert West
Professor of Health Psychology
Director of Tobacco Studies
Cancer Research UK
Trends in electronic cigarette use in
England
Robert West
Jamie Brown
Emma Beard
University College London
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Updated 18th October 2014
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Background
• Electronic cigarette use has become prevalent in
many countries
• In England, electronic cigarettes are currently
regulated as consumer products
• It is important to track use of electronic
cigarettes and assess how far they appear to be
promoting or detracting from reduction in
prevalence of cigarette smoking
4
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Aims
• To track use of electronic cigarettes over time and assess how far
any increase is accompanied by changes in:
– use of other aids to cessation or smoking reduction
– key performance indicators for tobacco control
• smoking prevalence
• smoking cessation rates
• attempts to stop smoking
• success of attempts to stop smoking
• To assess prevalence of use of electronic cigarettes in people who
have never smoked regularly or stopped for more than a year
• To estimate changes in the total tobacco and nicotine market
5
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Methods
6
• Monthly household surveys
• Each month involves a new representative
sample of ~1800 respondents; smokers ~450
• Data collected on electronic cigarettes since
second quarter 2011
• Fidler, et al., 2011. 'The smoking toolkit study': a
national study of smoking and smoking
cessation in England. BMC Public Health 11:479
• For more info see www.smokinginengland.info
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Prevalence of e-cigarette use:
smokers and recent ex-smokers
7
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
ent
of sm
okers
and
recent
ex-
sm
okers
Any
Daily
N=14490 adults who smoke or who stopped in the past year; increase p<0.001
Prevalence of e-cigarette use has not increased
since Q3 2013
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Prevalence of e-cigarette use: never
smokers and long-term ex-smokers
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
Never smoker Long-term ex-smoker
Perc
ent
E-cig NRT
8
N=14619 never and long-term ex-smokers from Nov 2013
E-cigarette use by never smokers is
negligible and similar to NRT use
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Prevalence of nicotine products while
smoking
9
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Perc
en
t of sm
okers
E-cigs
NRT
All nicotine
N=13531 smokers, increase p<0.001 e-cigs and all nicotine; decrease p=0.001 for NRT
Increase in use of e-cigarettes while smoking has
more than offset a decrease in NRT use
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Prevalence of nicotine products in
recent ex-smokers
10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Perc
ent
of
ex-s
mokers
E-cigs
NRT
All nicotine
N=959 adults who stopped in the past year; increase p<0.001 for e-cigs and all
nicotine; decrease p=0.002 for NRT
Increase in use of e-cigarettes
has offset a reduction in NRT
use that began earlier
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Proportion of e-cigarette users who are
smokers
11
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Perc
ent
N=1745 e-cigarette users of adults who smoke or stopped in past year
The large majority of e-cigarette users
also smoke
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
E-cigarette use and smoking in
different age groups
12
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
Perc
en
t
E-cig user
Cigarette smoker
N=32,291 adults from 2013 onwards
Prevalence of e-cigarette use follows a
similar pattern to smoking
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
E-cigarette use
13
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Lessthan
weekly
Weeklybut notdaily
1 per day 2-5 perday
6-10 perday
11+ perday
Perc
ent
Smoker
Ex-smoker
Frequency of use among users is greater in
recent ex-smokers
N=1323 e-cigarette users not using NRT
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Aids used in most recent quit attempt
14
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
502
00
9-3
20
09
-4
20
10
-1
20
10
-2
20
10
-3
20
10
-4
2011-1
20
11
-2
20
11
-3
20
11
-4
20
12
-1
20
12
-2
20
12
-3
20
12
-4
20
13
-1
20
13
-2
20
13
-3
20
13
-4
20
14
-1
20
14
-2
20
14
-3
Perc
ent
of sm
okers
try
ing t
o s
top
E-cigs
NRT OTC
NRT Rx
Champix
Beh'l supp
N=9438 adults who smoke and tried to stop or who stopped in the past year
E-cigarettes are the most
popular aid to cessation
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Quit attempts and quit success
15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
% try
ing
to
qu
it in
pa
st 1
2m
N=15788 adults who smoke or stopped in the past 12 months; both increases, p<0.001
There has been an increase in both quit attempts and quit success
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
% w
ho
qu
it in
pa
st 1
2m
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Prevalence of nicotine/cigarette use
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
Perc
ent
sm
okin
g c
igs o
r usin
g
nic
otine
Cigarettes
Nicotine or cigarettes
N=63950 adults, decrease p<0.001 for cigarettes and overall nicotine use
NB e-cigarette use assessed only in past year smokers until Oct 2013 and assumed to be 0 prior to this – since Nov 2013
prevalence in never and long term ex-smokers ~ 0.2%.
Cigarette and nicotine use prevalence
show an overall decline
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Modelling impact on prevalence
17
E-cigarettes have grown the use of
moderately effective aids to
cessation from 24% to 35%; use of
most effective methods has
decreased from 4% to 3%
At stable quit attempt rate of 37%
this contributed 0.05% to the
decreased prevalence (~20,000
additional ex-smokers)
Approx odds of success relative to
nothing and NRT-OTC:
1.5 Moderately effective
3.0 Most effective
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014
NHS Med Rx/E-cigs Nothing/NRT-OTC
N=9438 adults who smoke and tried to stop or who stopped in the past year; 2009 is Jul to Dec, 2014 is Jan to Sept
www.smokinginengland.info/latest-statistics
Key points: Trends since Q2 2011
• Prevalence of e-cigarette use increased rapidly until Q3 in 2013 but
has not grown for 12 months
• 20% of smokers and 30% of recent ex-smokers use e-cigarettes;
use of e-cigarettes by never-smokers and long-term ex-smokers
remains extremely rare
• 30% of quit attempts involve use of e-cigarettes making them the
most popular method of stopping smoking
• Growth in electronic cigarette use has:
– increased the prevalence of use of ‘moderately’ effective methods of stopping
(those that are approximately 50% better than NRT bought over the counter or
nothing)
– been accompanied by an increase in the incidence of quit attempts and quit
success
• Prevalence of both smoking and use of any nicotine product has
declined 18