Post on 07-Apr-2018
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Demantra Demand Management andJD Edwards World: Benefits of a
"World"-Class Forecasting ToolMargie Bell Director, Oracle Demantra Product ManagementKevin Klimek, Oracle JD Edwards Senior Product Strategy Manager
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Agenda
Why is demand driven planning important?
Overview of Oracle Demantra Demand Management
Integration: JD Edwards World and Oracle DemantraDemand Management
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Why is Demand DrivenPlanning Important?
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Multiple,non-integrated
systems
Manual processesMultiple data sources
FinancialPlanning
New ProductPlanning
SalesQuotas
ProductionPlanning
Measurementand Reporting
MarketingForecasting
Your Company
Low forecast accuracyDepartmental orientation to demand forecastingMisalignment between metrics and objectivesNot tied to Sales and Operations Planning process
?
Traditional Approach DisconnectedHigh latency, limited collaboration, no consensus forecasting
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Eliminate decision making latency by focusingon excellence in demand visibility
Sense demand more frequently and closer to the point of consumption
Replace spreadsheets with one number demand management -Collaborate with all constituents
Improve your forecast accuracy Use advanced analytics and statistics
Shape demand Promotion excellence and decomposition
Leverage granular demand signals (customer, channel, store, shelf)
Identify and simulate cross selling opportunities
Evolve to real-time S&OP Profitable demand response
Identify supply side opportunities
Define and monitor customer based metrics
Get real time visibility to sales tactics (price breaks, promotions, deals)
Better ApproachReal-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
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Demand Driven leaders have:
15% less inventory
17% stronger order fulfillment
35% shorter cash-to-cash cycletimes
Which translates to:
60% better profit margins 65% better EPS
2-3x the ROA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Strong Weak
Perfect Order Inventory
Cash-to-Cash SCM Costs
Source: AMR Benchmark Analytix
Improved Demand Managementis the first important step !
Better Approach Significant Benefits
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How
Delivers
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Oracle Value Chain Planning SolutionComplete, best-in-class e-business planning process platform
Demand SignalManagement
DemandManagement
Collaboration andVendor Managed
Inventory
PlantScheduling and
Monitoring
OrderPromising
ServiceParts
Planning
Trade PromotionManagement
Supply and DistributionPlanning
RiskManagement
Sales andOperationsPlanning
PerformanceManagement
Single source of truth Integrated with ERP SOA enabled
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Oracle Demantra Demand Management
Proactive planning Capture demand more frequently, closer to the point of consumption
Capture demand and forecast at more granular level (store, shelf,attributes, product characteristics)
Achieve consensus demand number more quickly by involving allconstituents at the same time, including customers
Quickly identify and react to demand changes and exceptions
Improve forecast accuracy Leverage advanced statistics for more accurate demand number
Use any combination of quantitative or qualitative data to establish yourbase line forecast
High precision statistical forecasting, no statistical background required Superior Bayesian-Markov forecast analytics
Forecast based on attributes and characteristics
Leverage Advanced Forecast Modeling for promotion lift decompositionand causal analysis
Shape demand for profitability Plan new product introductions
Plan promotions and sales incentives
Identify cross selling opportunities
Evolve to real-time S&OP Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets
Align strategic and tactical plans
Role based process, proactively managed via workflow
Shipments
Marketing
forecast
Order
history
CHANNEL DATA
Customer
sales
CollaborationWorkbench
Demand Hub and Seeded Worksheets
Real-time demand sensing and collaborative consensus forecasting
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Proactive Planning
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Improve Demand Visibility
PartnerInputs:
XML,EDI orManual
PartnerForecastMetrics
Improve demand visibility withcustomer collaboration
Tailor worksheets to specificcustomer needs
Worksheet can be attached to atask
Direct alerts via application or email
Automate internal notification oncustomer input
Field-level security tied to customeraccess privileges
Collaborate with customers and measure impacts
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Automate Key Steps in Process
Adapt quickly to new demandsignals
Incremental forecasting
Task and exception driven userdashboards
Queue for workflow and manually generated tasks Alerts and actions can be triggered by people, the
systems, or the analytic engines
Automated escalation ensuresresponse
Tailor planning processes toresemble unique companybusiness requirements
Easy-to-use drag and drop interface User defined performance indicators
Quickly identify and react to demand changes and exceptions
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Improve Demand Planner Productivity
Task oriented dashboards
Excel like worksheets Context sensitive
User configurable workspaces
Copy and paste multiple cells and rows
Create new worksheets based on 20 seeded ones (Historical forecastperformance, Forecast accuracy, Top and bottom 5 customers year todate, Revenue analysis, and more)
Shared and private worksheets
View in any unit or currency
View data at multiple levels in hierarchy of choice
Simultaneous update and view multiple worksheetsand perform side-by-side comparisons
Color coding based on exceptions Flexible formulaic expressions
Online notes with audit trail
Off-line mode with automatic sync and MS Excel
integration
Configurable user interface replaces need for individual spreadsheets while
ensuring enterprise database access and security
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Task Oriented Dashboards
Personalizedworksheets
Real-time alerts,exceptions and
workflowmessages
Online status ofAnalystscollaborationgroup
Open anyworksheet filteredby a ProductCategory
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Integrated,configurable graphs
Color coded cellsto focus plannersattention on key
issues
Work on multipleworksheets atvarious levels atthe same time
Excel Like Worksheets
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Unlimited hierarchies to model allplanning data:
Products and product families
Plants and distribution networks
Customer ship-locations including DCs and stores Sales territories and customer account relationships
Promotion and marketing programs
Attributes and characteristics
New levels can be added on the fly
Edit and view data at multiple levels inhierarchy of choice
Use lower level data for higher level forecasting
Use higher level data for lower level forecasting
Intelligent data management ensuresincomplete data is detected
Planning automatically done at next level when statisticallyrelevant data is not available
Marketing
Sales Rep
Support planning the way your business works
Flexible Hierarchies
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Online Notes and AuditTrail with digital signature
Comprehensive Audit TrailAccountability throughout the entire organization
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Improve your ForecastAccuracy
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Improve Forecast Accuracy
Mixed models used in same time series adjustfor multiple causal factors including seasonality,market trends, and promotions
Each model contributes different forecastcharacteristic to the overall model
Automatic model selection provides improvedaccuracy of best fit approaches
One forecast based on multiple models instead of only
using best-fit model Self-tuning engine
Forecast trees automatically find level withstatistically relevant data
Forecasts stored at lowest level
Proportion rules applied when necessary
Can incorporate external information such asweather, market drivers, forward indicators, andcompetitive data
Causal
Analysis
OutlierDetection
PromotionEvents
Seasonality
Cyclical Patterns
Trend
Historicaldata
BayesianEstimator
Forecast
Multiplecausalfactors
Combinedmodel
BayesianOptimizer
Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Demand Modeling option
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MAPE Mean Absolute
Percent Error
Improve Forecast Accuracy
MPE - Forecast Bias WMAPE Weighted MAPE
by revenue, cost, and so on
Built-in accuracy metrics
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Shape Demand forProfitability
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Shape Demand for Profitability
New products present forecasting challenges
Limited or no demand history for a given item
May combine characteristics of several previous products
Price points, changing market conditions may be different Product demand changes over product life cycle
Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data
??
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Shape Demand for Profitability
Derive forecast fornew product andadjust forecast basedon actual demand
Automaticallydetect outliers
View demand ofcomparable productsbased on characteristics
Accurately forecast demand for new products based on existing data
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Shape Demand for Profitability
What incremental volume will result from amarketing program?
How will it impact the sales of other products?
How does a marketing program at a brand orproduct family level impact a specific item?
What were the indirect effects such ascannibalization and consumer stockpiling?
What is the ROI on my marketing and tradespending?
What is the predicted impact of future activity?
How does a promotion impact shipments and DC
replenishments?
Cannibalization
Pre- and p ost-effects
Comp etitive switchingCatego ry growth
Baseline
Actual
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
Period 1 Period 6 Period 11
Cases
P ast Future
Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact
of promotions and sales incentives
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Shape Demand for Profitability
Baseline versus incremental volume Provides decomposition of incremental volume
from advertising, promotions, or sales incentives
Granular lift analytics Incremental volume lift coefficients maintained at
lowest level
Localized promotion analysis Allows shipments/replenishments to be adjusted
by ship-to location
Cross product and customer effects Determines cross-product cannibalization impact Adjusts forecasts for product and customer
cannibalization
Baseline
Incremental
Competitiveswitching
Long term
growth
Pre and Postpromotion
effect
Cross product
cannibalization
Typical DemantraAFDM
Baseline
Leverage Advanced Forecasting and Modeling to understand the real impact
of promotions and sales incentives
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Evolve to Real Time
Sales & Operations Planning
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Evolve to Real-Time S&OP
Customers
Suppliers
Develop predictable business plans
Shape demand to meet financial goals
Align supply chain to support plan
Monitor performance to plan
Shape demand to close gaps
Drive decisions into ERP
Finance
Supply Chain Sales
Marketing
Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets
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Evolve to Real-Time S&OP
Seeded templates for S&OPcollaboration
Seeded consensus planning worksheets
Easily tailored to your business
Configurable and extensible Extensible hierarchies and dimensions
Collaborate at any level
User-defined reports and exceptions
Manage by exception instantly Exceptions and visual cues easily point to important
issues immediately
Document all assumptions with a complete audit trail ofdecisions taken
Leverage POS data to alert planners to exceptions realtime (versus batch month by month)
Integrated Seeded data streams for data commonly used in the
process
Profitably balance supply, demand, and budgets
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Architecture
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State-of-the-art and Scalable Architecture
Scalable Handle millions of combination
Web-based user interfacepersonalization
Dynamically configure
Drag-and-drop
Tailor workflow processes to uniquecompany requirements
Demand Management adapts to your businessprocess
Create alerts and exception rules
Customize reports on-the-fly
Dynamic open link to MS Excel
Work in disconnected modeEnte
rpriseTe
chnology
Stack
SOAP
/XML/H
TML/HT
TP(S)
J2EESer
ver
RDB
MS
Enterpris
eTechno
logyStac
k
SOAP
/XML/H
TML/HT
TP(S)
J2EESer
ver
RDB
MS
Demantra
Infrastructure
User
/RoleSe
curitySe
rvices
Adm
inistratio
n&Con
figuration
Bus
inessOb
jectServ
icesDemantra
Infrastructure
User
/RoleSe
curitySe
rvices
Adm
inistratio
n&Con
figuration
Bus
inessOb
jectServ
ices
DataInte
grationS
ervices
UnifiedD
emandD
ataRepos
itory
BusinessApplicationLanguage
OLAP
Optimiz-
ation
Business
Logic
GUI
Workflow
&
Exception
s
Predictiv
e
Modeling
DataInte
grationS
ervices
UnifiedD
emandD
ataRepos
itory
BusinessApplicationLanguage
OLAP
Optimiz-
ation
Business
Logic
GUI
Workflow
&
Exception
s
Predictiv
e
Modeling
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Copyright 2008, Oracle. All rights reserved.1 - 35
DemandManagement
Predictive Trade Planning
Strategic Network
Optimization
Collaborative
Planning
Advanced Supply
Chain Planning
Inventory
Optimization
Demand Signal
Repository
Advanced Planning
Command Center
Real-Time
S&OP
E1 World
Global Order
Promising
Production
Scheduling
Sales CG PIP
Financial Planning
PLM
SCM & Financials
VALUE CHAIN PLANNING
Manufacturing
Operations Center
Service
Parts Planning
SCM
Demantra Integration Overview
Advanced Forecasting
& Demand Modeling
Trade Promotion Optimization
Deduction and Settlement Mgmt
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JD Edwards World
and
Demantra Demand Management
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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationBusiness Challenge
The Issue:
Better Forecast Accuracy in a Demand Driven, Consensus Based,
Collaborative Planning Environment
The Solution:
Use a Single, Precise Forecast from Demantra Demand Managementto Drive the JD Edwards World MRP/DRP Process
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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview
ItemsCustomers
Sales History
Forecast
Demand Management
Advanced Forecasting
Manufacturing Management
Order ManagementInventory Management
JD EdwardsWorld
Demantra DemandManagement
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Download from JD Edwards World and Upload to Demantra:
Item, Facility (B/P), Customer information
Open Sales Orders/Sales History
Notifications (errors, warnings, success) available via e-mail and throughBatch Status Inquiry program
Download Forecast from Demantra and Upload to JD EdwardsWorld:
Forecast to JDE World
Notifications (errors, warnings, success) available via e-mail and throughBatch Status Inquiry program
JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview
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JD Edwards World to Demantra IntegrationUser Notification of Exceptions
Seeded workflow notifications can be modified byselecting the appropriate group for notification
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JD Edwards World/Demantra IntegrationFunctional Overview
Menu G34A2 Contains allprograms/operations for theintegration to Demantra DemandManagement
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Outbound ProcessorFunctional Overview
FXXXXFXXXX F34AXXXXFF34AXXXXFF34AXXXXF34AXXXX
XXXX.txtXXXX.txt
FTP
JD Edwards World
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Outbound Processor P34AOBFunctional Overview
P34A120
F34A4211
P34A110
F34A4001P34A160
F34A0301P34A150
F34A4102P34A140
F34A4101P34A130Item/Unit of Measure
F4101, F41002/3
Sales History
F42119
Sales
F4211
Facility
F41001, F0006
Customer
F0301, F0101
Item/Branch
F4102
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Inbound ProcessorFunctional Overview
F3460F3460 F34A3460FF34A3460FF34A3460F34A3460
Forecast.txtForecast.txt
FTP
JD Edwards World
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Inbound Flat File to Forecast
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For More Information
OR
Oracle Demantra Demand Management
OR
JD Edwards World Home Page
Click on:
JD Edwards World A9.1 Integration toDemantra Demand Management
Functional Overview
Follow Sign on Instructions and Click onJD Edwards World: Migration / Integration link
http://www.oracle.com/applications/scm/demantra/demand-management.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/jdedwards-world.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://ouweb.us.oracle.com/tois/customers.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/jdedwards-world.htmlhttp://www.oracle.com/applications/scm/demantra/demand-management.html8/6/2019 057209
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The preceding is intended to outline our generalproduct direction. It is intended for information
purposes only, and may not be incorporated into anycontract. It is not a commitment to deliver anymaterial, code, or functionality, and should not be
relied upon in making purchasing decisions.The development, release, and timing of anyfeatures or functionality described for Oraclesproducts remains at the sole discretion of Oracle.
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