Post on 21-Dec-2015
-TRED Study Overview-
Director Jim LynchMontana Department of Transportation
January 28, 2006
Glasgow, MT
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Goals
Provide Information on the US 2/MT 16 TRED Study
Describe the Process
Identify Next Steps
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What is the “TRED” Study??
TransportationRegional DevelopmentEconomic
Study of
US 2 and MT 16 segments ofTheodore Roosevelt Expressway
in Montana
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TRED Study Purpose
Purpose: Identify economic, regulatory, or operational
changes that would result in traffic and
safety conditions that justify 4 lanes on the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway in Montana.
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What Area Does the Study Cover?
Study Corridor
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Relationship to Federal Environmental Review Requirements (NEPA)
TRED Study is Pre-NEPA ND US 2 EIS & MT US 2 Havre-Fort Belknap EIS were
NEPA
If TRED shows high probability of traffic to warrant a four lane
- then- Next step is NEPA -- using TRED results for
Federally required “purpose and need”
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Why this Corridor??
August 2005 Congressional Action named
MT 16 and US 2 east from Culbertson
as segments of Theodore Roosevelt Expressway “High Priority Corridor”
The entire corridor begins in Port of Laredo Texas and ends at the Port of Raymond, MT
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Why this Corridor??
The corridor provides regional connectivity and mobility with North Dakota and Saskatchewan
If expanding the corridor to a 4-lane is justified, the US 2 section of the Theodore Roosevelt Expressway may be the best place to start
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TRED Economic Analysis
GOAL: What is the probability future traffic (especially commercial) will be high enough to justify a 4-lane to meet safety and capacity needs?
STEPS in Economic Analysis
Study Existing condition Feb – June
1. Corridor Operations
2. Existing Economic Development Plans / Opportunities
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Steps in TRED Analysis
Next:
Build a 30-year traffic/freight model Apr – June Model will not be a “black box”
Model will be customized for MT and TRED study area
Load existing condition information
Calibrate model for two different alternatives
1. Modern 2-lane2. 4-lane
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Steps in TRED Analysis con’t
Sensitivity and Risk Analysis July and August
Identify and Test model against future scenarios
Determine probability of changes in traffic volumes based on scenarios
Input from Expert Panel on rural economics
Conclusions and Recommendations End of October
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Future Scenario & Sensitivity Tests
Will truck volumes increase if..... Crude oil stays high and exploration continues Grain moves from rail to truck Coal to fuel conversion technology is deployed Grain shipment is further consolidated and trucks
travel further on TRE A 4-lane is built across MT and ND?????
What is the probability of each scenario? The public will help define the scenarios
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Results of Sensitivity Tests
Incremental freight movements in study area ++ normal growth in traffic
++ Incremental freight increases on US 2 ++ Anticipated reduced safety and degradation
of Level of Service (LOS) ++ Risk-adjusted traffic & LOS =
Cumulative, potential need to add lanes
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What does this mean?
Example
Probability of diverting traffic from I 90
*Probability crude oil will
force continued exploration
*
Probability manufactured goods will cross at
Raymond if size/wgts change in MT
*WHAT IS THE
PROBABILITY A 4-LANE IS NEEDED FOR SAFETY
AND TRAFFIC
?Other =
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End Result is a Central Forecast and Probability of Achieving Alternate Scenarios
Scenario
Probability
Of Surpassing
Est. Traffic Vol. (1000s)
Percentage
Of Trucks
A 90% 2.36 36.5%
B 60% 3.10 42.0%
C 20% 4.20 47.5%
Etc… Etc… Etc… Etc…
Mean Expected
Outcome
? ? ?
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Why Focus on Traffic and Safety?
Potential economic development was not a factor in the selection of the preferred ND 4-lane alternative by FHWA. Safety and capacity issues related to military convoys were major factors in selection.
Traffic and safety issues can stand the test with permitting agencies.
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Why Focus on Commercial Traffic?
Speed differential between trucks and cars causes reduced level of service
Commercial trucks are weighted more heavily in level of service calculations
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Where will the Data Come From?
Existing regional economic conditions and opportunities
• Interviews with Ag. Groups, Commercial transport companies
• Scope:– Northern Great Plains of Eastern MT & Western NS/SD &
Southern Saskatchewan• Meetings with elected officials, commercial shippers,
general public• Questionnaires• Surveys• Known economic development plans• Sectors: oil/gas, grain production, rail, tourism,• other?
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Who Will Conduct the Study?
MDT lead and final decision-maker But- results will have to stand up in a NEPA
process where Federal agencies decide
Consultant firm (HDR) with engineers, planners, & economists with international experience in transportation and economic development
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Outreach
MDT has already reached out to ND, SD, and Saskatchewan
Kick-off Meeting First week in March Public Meeting Late June Stakeholder Workshop Early August
Goal: bring interested parties and experts together to
Assess findings and help analyze risk
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Outreach cont.
Economic Analysis Public Involvement
Open House Mid – August
2nd Stakeholder workshop on Conclusions and Recommendations Late September
2nd Public Open House Early October
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Next Steps
There will be a kick-off meeting in early March..
Location???
A web site regarding the study will soon be available …. Sign up and we will contact you.
Let us know if you want to be involved
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Contacts
MDT Dick Turner, Multimodal Bureau Chief
406 - 444 - 7289
HDR – Consultant TeamDon Galligan, HDR Boise Idaho
208 - 387 - 7058
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Questions??