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SPEC (Social, Political, Economic and Cultural) BarometerJuly 2011 Findings
Date: 21st July 2011
Methodology
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Poll Methodology
Dates of polling June 30th – July 8th, 2011
Sample Size 2000 respondents
Sampling methodology Random, Multi-stage stratified using PPS
Universe Kenyan adults, aged 18+ living in Urban and Rural areas
Data collection methodology
Sampling error +/-2.2 with a 95% confidence level
Structured Face-to-Face interviews at the household level
Perceived problems facing Kenya today
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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
“In your opinion, what is the most serious problem facing Kenya today?” (by Total)
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Prices of key commodities
Commodity April 2011 July 2011
Maize flour (1 kg) Kshs 40.00 – 45.00 Kshs 67.00 – 80.00
Dry Maize (90 Kg bag) Ksh 2,000.00 – 2,600.00 Ksh 4,000.00 – 4,800
Sugar (1 kg) Ksh 94.00 – 98.00 Ksh 100.00 – 130
1 Litre Cooking Oil Ksh 100.00 – 130.00 Ksh 210.00 – 245
Fuel (1 litre petrol) Ksh 104.00 Ksh 115.39
Fuel (1 litre diesel) Ksh 94.53 Ksh 106.12
Kerosene (1 litre) Ksh 84.53 Ksh 86. 16
Milk Ksh 28.00 Ksh 28.00 – 32.00
Bread (500mg) Ksh 32 - 34 Ksh 38.00 – 40.00
1 $ Ksh 83.55 Ksh 89.50
Source: Local shops / retail supermarkets collected by Synovate
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Base: n=2,000 (All respondents)
“Within the past 6 months, do you think the level of corruption in Kenya has increased, decreased or stayed the same. ..”(by total)
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86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
% indicating that they are very committed/somewhat committed
“How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?”(By total)
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“How committed are the following institutions and/or personalities in fighting corruption?”(By total)
86% 81% 51% 53% 56% 53%
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Prime
Min
ister
Presid
ent
Vice P
resid
ent
KAAC(Ken
ya A
nti C
orru
ptio
n Com
miss
ion)
Parlia
men
t
The A
ttorn
ey G
ener
al
26%22%
12%
43%
11%9%
41%43% 42%
35%37%
33%
28%31%
38%
13%
45%42%
5% 5%7% 8%
6%
14%
1% 1% 1% 1%
Very committed Somewhat commited Not at all committedDon't know No response
Performance Ratings
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“How would you rate the overall or general performance of the following people or institutions over the last three months?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Parliament
Your local MP
Coalition Govt
Courts
Vice President
President
Prime Minister
Kofi Annan team
Speaker
KACC
The Media
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
41%
46%
47%
47%
50%
65%
66%
71%
74%
74%
86%
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Performance Rating of the Grand Coalition Government: Time Series
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Jul 08 Oct 08 Dec 08 April 09 Jul 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Mar 10 Dec 10 Mar 11 Jul 110%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
77%
69%
61%
33%
44%
49% 50%
34%
65%63%
47%
Constitutional Implementation
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Key deadlines for the Constitution implementation:
Publishing crucial bills: Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission Act, 2011
Crucial bills yet to be passed: Deadline is August 27th 2011 Elections Bill Political Parties Bill Devolved Government Bill Bill on Citizenship Bill on Ethics and Corruption Budget and Finance Bill
Article 261 (1)“Parliament shall enact any legislation required by this Constitution to be enacted to govern a particular matter within the period specified in the Fifth Schedule, commencing on the effective date” Article 261 (5) “If Parliament fails to enact any particular legislation within the specified time, any person may petition the High Court on the matter”
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“What is the main difficulty you foresee in implementing the new Constitution?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Top 5 perceived difficulties:
Contentious issues
Lack of Citizens' awareness
Lack of cohesion
Corruption
Political interests / Lack of political will
6%
6%
17%
20%
34%
Presidential Candidate and Political Party Choice
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“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
ODMPNU
ODM K
enya
Narc K
enya
UDM
FORD-Ken
ya
KANUNar
c
Other
s
None
33%
23%
9%
3% 3%2% 2%
1% 1%
23%
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“Which political party do you feel closest to if any?” -Time Series
Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 20110%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
43%41%
48%
38%41%
33%
7% 8% 7%
2%
7%9%
21%22% 21%
18%21%
23%
1% 2%4%
2% 3% 3%4% 5%3%
4%
13%
9%
22%21%
17%
36%
14%
23%
ODM ODM Kenya PNU Narc Kenya Other None
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“If ODM which group within ODM, do you support?” by Total
Base: n=650 (Those saying “ODM”)
Raila Group; 80%
Ruto Group; 18%
Not sure; 1%
No response; 1%
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Over 13 candidates have declared interest in the Presidency:
Professor James Ole Kiyiapi Professor Chirau Ali Makwere Isaac Jafar Paul Muite Mutava Musyimi Eugene Wamalwa Moses Wetangula Bifwoli Wakoli Martha Karua Uhuru Kenyatta Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka William Ruto Charity Ngilu Moses Mudavadi
Others: Peter Kenneth Mike Sonko
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Constitutional Requirements on the Presidency
Article 138(4) : Declaration of winner “A candidate shall be declared President if the candidate receives a) more than half (over 50%) of all votes cast in the election and b) “at least 25% of the votes cast in each of more than half of the Counties “(47 Counties i.e. 24 Counties)
Article 137(1d) : The nomination process “A person is qualified for nomination as a Presidential Candidate if he or she is endorsed by not fewer than 2,000 voters from each of a
majority of the Counties ( in at least 24 Counties before being endorsed by the electoral commission)”
Article 148 (1 and 3): Declaring a running mate “Each candidate in a presidential election shall nominate a person who is qualified for nomination for election as President, as a
candidate for Deputy President”
“The Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission shall declare the candidate nominated by the person who is elected as the President to be elected as the Deputy President”
Other factors at play: Cabinet secretaries will not be elected office holders [will not come from among MPs, senators , governors etc e.g. Article 99 (2)]
The Electoral Commission aims to register 19, 000,000 voters in the next General election (currently 12.4 million voters registered, IIEC)
Voters also expected to elect; on the same day as President;a.Governorb.Senatorc.Member of Parliament d.County representativee.County Women’s representative f.And probably a mayor in urban areas e.g. Nairobi
Voter turn out
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“Apart from President Kibaki, if presidential elections were held now, whom would you vote for if that person was a candidate?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Raila
Odi
nga
Uhuru
Ken
yatta
Kalon
zo M
usyo
ka
Willi
am R
uto
Mar
tha
Karua
Eugen
e W
amal
wa
Peter
Ken
neth
Mus
alia
Mud
avad
i
Kenne
th M
aren
de
No re
spon
se
Don't k
now
32%
21%
11% 11%
5%3%
2%1% 1%
6%7%
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Presidential Candidate Choice
Mar 2010 Jul 2010 Oct 2010 Dec 2010 Mar 2011 Jul 20110%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
36%
36%
48%
42% 38%
32%
12%12% 12% 12%
13% 11%8% 8%
14% 14%18%
21%
7%11% 10%
4%8%
11%6% 5% 6% 5% 6% 5%4%
1% 1% 2% 3% 3%
11% 14%
4%
16%
8%13%
Raila Odinga Kalonzo Musyoka Uhuru Kenyatta Willam Ruto
Martha Karua Eugene Wamalwa Others None
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
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5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate
Leadership Aspect %
One who has good leadership skills 36%
A person of integrity 18%
An individual who is a reformist 16%
One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare 14%
One who is development conscious 7%
Someone who is young 5%
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5 Key Qualities Kenyans will consider when voting for a particular Presidential candidate
Leadership Aspect Context
One who has good leadership skills
Visionary, responsible, principled, hardworking, courageous, impartial, authoritative, mature and builds unity among Kenyans [article 131 (1e); Symbol of unity ]
A person of integrityNot corrupt, transparent and trustworthy , knows what is good
An individual who is a reformist
Will bring about change in Kenya, is ready for change, will initiate reforms, e.g. implementing the new constitution diverse opinions, has progressive ideas, will streamline the political landscape
One who is mindful of Kenyans’ welfare
Helpful to people , cares about the people’s welfare, cost of living, understands people’s problems, can defends citizens, concerned with youth welfare and represent their interests
One who is development consciousHas good development ideas, good development record, action oriented
Someone who is “young” “Young “
2007 – 2008 Post Election Violence and ICC Trials
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“Which Kenyans have been named for possible trial by the ICC at the Hague?”
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Francis Muthaura
Joshua Sang
Hussein Ali
Henry Kosgey
Uhuru Kenyatta
William Ruto
54%
55%
56%
58%
85%
87%
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Opinion on ICC trials
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor should be tried by the
ICC at the Hague, 56%
The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor
should be tried by a local tribunal in Kenya, 33%
The six suspects named by the ICC prosecutor should NOT be tried at
all, 11%
Q. “Please choose one statement that is closest to your view” by Total
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“Are you happy or unhappy that the Hague/the ICC is pursuing the six suspects of the post election violence(PEV)?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Happy; 60%
Unhappy; 32%
Not sure; 5%
DK; 2%
RTA; 1%
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Q. How would your community feel if the Hague/ICC punished each of the following suspects of PEV?
% indicating that they are happy
Those happy with the pursuit of ICC suspects(by province)
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
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“(If Happy)Please explain?”
Base: n=1208(Those saying happy)
Because the Government failed to establish a local judicial
We do not trust Kenyan courts
We will know the truth about post election violence
Prevent future violence
It will end impunity
So that justice can be done
2%
6%
11%
12%
19%
50%
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(If Unhappy)Please explain?”
Base: n=638(Those saying unhappy)
They should have been tried using a special tribunal
It will cause more violence in the country
Kenyans should forgive each other and move on
The process has been politicised
Enough investigation was not done
The current list is incomplete
The six accused are not real suspects
Should have been tried using local courts
8%
8%
8%
10%
11%
12%
15%
18%
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“In your opinion, should ICC hearings on confirmation of charges be held in….?” by Total
Base: n=2000 (All respondents)
Hague(Netherlands); 51%
Kenya; 37%
Arusha; 2%
Refused to answer; 1%No response; 4%Don't know; 4%
Preference on ICC hearings on confirmation of charges:
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The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A
sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 32:68 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error
attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95%
confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target
population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 30 th June - 8th July, 2011
To achieve this sample a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to
size (PPS) was used. This ensures that districts with a higher population size had a proportionately
higher sample size allocation. This survey was conducted in 56 administrative and geographical
districts in Kenya
The interviews were done at household level. Household interviews were preferred because they
allow for pure random sampling ensuring full representation of the various demographics and also for
quality control.
POLL METHODOLOGY
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These face-to-face in-home interviews are also preferred because they allowed for further probing as
respondents have more time to respond to questions as compared to street interviews.
The households were selected using the systematic random sampling procedure. In this case a random
starting point was selected within a cluster of households. From that point the interviewers mainly skipped 4
households until the sample size for that cluster in the district was achieved. One eligible respondent was
then selected from each qualifying household through a household member randomization technique known
as the Kish Grid. This was done to ensure that there was no bias related to household member selection. In
cases where the eligible respondent was not available for interviewing, the field interviewers made at least 3
callbacks. If after the third callback the required respondent was still not available for the interview, the field
interviewer substituted that household for another.
The data collection involved the use of a semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed ended
questions. The poll questions were structured in a very open manner, with all possible options provided,
including no opinion. This ensures that there is no bias at all with the way the questions are asked.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The fieldwork Supervisors made a minimum
of 15% on-site back checks and accompanied a minimum of 10% of all interviewers’ calls, while the field
managers made 2% back-checks. These back-checks were made within the same day of interviewing
Poll Methodology (Cont..)
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For further enquiries contact
Maggie IreriMD Synovate Kenya
maggie.ireri@synovate.com